Trend Analysis
ATYR Currently at Buy ZoneThis year, I am 3-0 on this setup. Is it perfect? No pattern or setup ever is. But this is my favorite trade to take.
I call it a bullet catch pattern.
Check out my recent short on Lennox (LII) for the perfect example and entry.
You can see a prolonged multi-month slow arc which represents a thorough debate between buyers and sellers (the catch shape), and it is being challenged now by a single impulse candle (the bullet). Normally, it will push slightly beyond the arc to tap liquidity, then return to close within the previously established range.
A close of a weekly or monthly candle outside of this range would be a sign to get out of the trade. A wick into liquidity followed by a candle close within the range would be a good sign (so the bulk of buy orders here are in the green liquidity zone, just before a reasonable stop loss.
I've made my best trades ever with this setup. Does it work 100%? No, nothing does. Is it my highest certainty setup?
Yes.
GBPJPY H1 | Potential bearish drop offGBP/JPY is reacting off the sell entry which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to the downside.
Buy entry is at 199.97, which acts as an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 200.70, which is a multi-swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 199.25, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Oil prices, a favorable factor for a Fed cut1. An oversupplied market
Global oil production is reaching record highs at around 105 million barrels per day. The United States delivers 22 million, ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia (9.6 million each), while OPEC provides 27 million. On top of this comes the growth in exports from Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. This supply glut keeps oil prices in the $65–75 range despite geopolitical conflicts.
2. Cheap oil, an unexpected ally against inflation
This situation is an asset for major importing economies, particularly the United States. Moderate oil prices contribute to disinflation, easing the energy bill for households and businesses. Unlike past episodes where sharp oil price drops signaled collapsing demand, the current movement mainly stems from oversupply. It is therefore not a recession signal but rather a supportive cyclical factor.
3. Downward trend under the $65/$75 resistance
Chart signals confirm this pressure. WTI remains capped under $65, Brent under $70–75. Ichimoku indicators place prices below the weekly cloud, confirming a bearish dynamic. Elliott Wave analysis suggests an ongoing corrective move since the war in Ukraine. In this context, institutional investors are increasing short positions, putting further pressure on prices.
4. Geopolitics as an artificial floor
While fundamentals argue for a sharper decline, oil remains supported by a risk premium linked to tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. This geopolitical factor is a bullish element for oil prices.
5. The Fed’s key role on September 17
The Federal Reserve’s decision at its September 17 meeting could alter oil’s trajectory. A rate cut would weaken the dollar, making dollar-denominated oil more attractive for foreign buyers. This mechanism would offer temporary support to prices despite oversupply. Conversely, maintaining the status quo would strengthen the greenback, adding downward pressure. Price adjustments will therefore largely depend on the Fed’s monetary strategy and the FOMC’s updated macroeconomic projections.
In summary, today’s oil surplus acts as a macroeconomic safety valve: it curbs inflation, supports purchasing power, and reduces production costs. This setup provides Western markets with a more stable environment while giving the Fed additional room for maneuver.
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$BTC dominance BREAKS DOWN!CRYPTOCAP:BTC dominance big breakdown on the DAILY chart.
Back inside the falling wedge which broke out to the upside earlier this week, so this would be huge for altcoins.
57.7% now, and targets are much lower from recent chart patterns' breakdowns, at least below the 56% mark. 👽💙
PLUG Daily Analysis – Sept 17, 2025🚨 PLUG Daily Analysis – Sept 17, 2025
PLUG surged +19% today, driving straight into the $1.94–$2.03 supply zone. This is a premium area where sellers previously controlled price.
🔎 Key Levels
Resistance: $2.03 → break here could open the path toward $2.54 and then $3.30.
Support: $1.50–$1.40 demand zone, with deeper liquidity resting at $0.90–$0.80.
📊 Structure & Volume
Recent CHoCH (Change of Character) signals suggest short-term bullish momentum.
Volume spike confirms institutional participation, but we are still in a retracement phase within a broader downtrend.
🎯 Outlook
Bullish case: Break and close above $2.03 → upside targets $2.54 / $3.30.
Bearish case: Rejection at supply could pull price back toward $1.50, possibly $0.90 if weakness extends.
Market is at equilibrium—watch closely to see if this is just a retracement or the start of a reversal.
Smart Money Concepts in play. Manage risk.
— WaverVanir International LLC
ETH Awaits Fed Decision, High Volatility AheadCRYPTOCAP:ETH Update
Back on August 21, when news broke about a possible Fed rate cut on September 17, ETH instantly jumped nearly 14%. Fast forward to today, the actual announcement is scheduled for 2 PM ET, and the market is on edge.
There’s a strong probability of a rate cut, which could inject fresh momentum and push ETH higher. But if the Fed keeps rates unchanged, we could see a sharp downside correction as risk assets react.
Best approach right now? Stay patient. Wait for the full announcement from Powell, his tone will matter as much as the numbers. Extreme volatility is expected around that time, so caution is key.
DYOR, NFA
#PEACE
Nestle India Buy Alert – Golden Opportunity for InvestorsNestle India – Technical Update
Timeframe: 1-Hour Chart
Price Action: Nestle India is trading within a well-defined parallel channel.
Support Zone: Currently sustaining above the 1170–1180 LOP support zone.
Outlook: If the stock holds this level, we may witness upside momentum.
Potential Target: 1280–1290 near the channel resistance.
Thank you!
BankNifty levels - Sep 18, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We trust that this information proves valuable to you.
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Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
POLUSDT Technical Analysis (2H Timeframe)Let’s see what opportunities the market might give us to enter! ⚡️
The price of POL has been in a steady downtrend after rejecting the 0.275–0.280 resistance zone. It is now approaching a strong demand zone around 0.238–0.245, where buyers have previously shown significant interest. The RSI is near the oversold area, indicating potential for a short-term relief bounce if buyers step in.
🔹 Key Support Zone: 0.238 – 0.245
🔹 Key Resistance Zone: 0.275 – 0.280
🔹 Likely Scenario: Further drop into the demand zone followed by a possible bullish reaction
⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always use proper risk management.
WTI: Oil Markets on Edge Despite Trump Considering Major TariffsOil prices could drop if Trump backs down on tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, but short-term bullish catalysts, like geopolitical tensions and bullish speculative bets, may still push prices up before longer-term headwinds take hold.
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Trump’s threats of steep tariffs on countries buying Russian oil have sent oil prices surging, as traders fear a global supply crunch if Russian barrels are cut off.
But here’s the twist: Trump has a history of backing down or delaying tariffs after using them as leverage. When he does, oil prices usually fall, as the immediate risk of supply disruption fades.
If he caves in again by the deadline, which is 10 to 12 days from 4 August, or extends it, oil prices could drop. The bigger picture also appears bearish: OPEC+ is ramping up supply, global demand is slowing and expected to drop in H2, and inventories are rising (first glimpse by EIA, Wed).
But with the deadline falling around 14–16 August, 2025, short-term bullish catalysts could spark a rally up to the 38.2%-61.8 % Fibonacci retracement levels, positioning WTI better for declines (conditional on Trump!).
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Nifty 50 : Crossed an important resistance level of 25300Nifty 50 : After a Buy signal was triggered just few sessions back ,it crossed an important resistance level of 25300 today. Hoping to close it above it . Next resistance is at 25600.
( Not a Buy / Sell Recommendation
Do your own due diligence ,Market is subject to risks, This is my own view and for learning only .)
UPDATE - EUR/USD Extends Rally as Bullish Structure Holds FirmHi Everyone,
A quick update on our EUR/USD idea shared earlier in the week:
We saw the anticipated break higher, clearing both the 1.17889 level and the yearly high at 1.18300, which now shifts our focus to the higher levels above. In the near term, any pullbacks are expected to hold above the 1.16550 support, keeping the broader bullish structure intact.
The impulsive rally from the 1st August low continues to underpin our bullish outlook on EUR/USD. Our broader view remains unchanged: we expect the pair to continue building momentum for another leg higher. With the decisive break above 1.17889, the focus now turns to the 1.18350–1.19290 zone, and ultimately the 1.20000 handle.
We’ll be monitoring price action closely to see whether this recovery gains traction and if buyers can sustain momentum through resistance. The longer-term outlook remains bullish, provided price continues to hold above the key support levels.
We’ll keep updating you throughout the week as the structure develops and share how we’re managing our active positions.
Thanks again for all the likes, boosts, comments, and follows — your support is truly appreciated!
All the best for the rest of the week.
Trade safe.
BluetonaFX
EURUSD Bullish Impulse Structure Signals Further GainsThe short-term Elliott Wave analysis for EURUSD indicates an ongoing impulsive cycle that began on August 27. From that low, the pair has been advancing in a nested impulse structure. Wave ((i)) concluded at 1.1736, followed by a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)), which bottomed at 1.1605. The internal structure of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag pattern. Specifically, wave (a) declined to 1.161, wave (b) rallied to 1.1682, and wave (c) completed the correction at 1.1606, finalizing wave ((ii)) in the higher degree.
The pair has since resumed its upward trajectory within wave ((iii)). From the wave ((ii)) low, wave i peaked at 1.1682, with a subsequent dip in wave ii ending at 1.1627. Wave iii surged to 1.1759, followed by a wave iv pullback to 1.1689. The advance in wave v reached 1.178, completing wave (i) in the higher degree. A corrective wave (ii) followed, forming a zigzag that ended at 1.1658. The pair then resumed its ascent in wave (iii), with wave i reaching 1.1746 and wave ii correcting to 1.1698. In the near term, as long as the pivot low at 1.1606 holds, any dips should find support in a 3, 7, or 11 swing, signaling further upside potential.
Fed Cuts Rates — Gold Reacts, Watching for Follow-Through or ReThe Fed has just delivered a 25 bps rate cut, and there’s a mixed tone in the after-move: inflation still high, jobs softening, and the dot-plot shows more cuts are expected — but with divided opinions.
On the chart, Gold spilled out of consolidation post-Fed, touched key support, and is now pressing back toward a 4H FVG (supply zone).
Scenarios:
Upside: If price pushes up toward the 4H FVG, gets rejected cleanly → potential short entry.
Downside: If that rejection holds, or support breaks, expect slide toward high timeframe FVG region in 3600s.
Trade with eyes open — volatility likely stays high. Support & resistance zones are critical here.
Lingrid | ETHUSDT Pullback Entry Continuation SetupBINANCE:ETHUSDT is trading above its key support at 4,400 after a rebound from the upward trendline, showing resilience despite recent pullbacks. The structure highlights a breakout from the falling wedge and the formation of higher lows, signaling accumulation before continuation. If buyers defend 4,390, momentum could lift price toward 4,750 and potentially retest the broader resistance zone near 5,000. The overall outlook remains bullish as long as Ethereum holds above its trendline support.
💡 Risks:
A breakdown below 4,390 would weaken bullish momentum and expose downside toward 4,000.
Sharp volatility in Bitcoin could spill over into Ethereum, limiting upside potential.
Negative regulatory or macroeconomic news may trigger selling pressure across crypto markets.
If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!