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Trend Analysis

Is Bitcoin Forming the Next Cycle Low?Bitcoin is currently approaching a zone that historically aligns with major cycle lows, highlighted by the marked reactions in 2018 and 2022. Each of these areas formed after extended bearish corrections and ultimately led to the start of a new bullish expansion phase. One of the most important confluences visible on the chart is the Weekly RSI dropping into oversold territory. Historically, whenever RSI has reached or dropped near the 30 level on the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has formed macro bottoms shortly after. These oversold conditions typically signal seller exhaustion and long-term accumulation opportunities. At present, BTC is once again showing a similar structure: - Price is correcting after a strong bullish cycle - Weekly RSI is entering oversold levels - Market structure is beginning to resemble previous cycle bottom formations If historical behavior repeats, this region could potentially act as a 2026 cycle low zone, where long-term buyers step in and momentum gradually shifts back to the upside. However, confirmation through stabilization, higher lows, and momentum reversal would strengthen the bullish outlook. Key Observations: - Previous cycle lows formed when weekly RSI approached oversold levels - Strong historical pattern connecting RSI extremes with macro reversals - Current price action mirrors prior bear market bottom structures Traders and investors should monitor price behavior closely around this region. A strong reclaim of momentum could signal the early stages of a new long-term uptrend, while continued weakness may delay the cycle bottom formation. Cheers Hexa
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by HexaTrades
$IBIT Trading Gaps Mostly Filled - Open Gaps Higher UpI've been tracking the 4-Hour chart of the Black Rock I bit since Inception and noticed that 95% of the gaps fill similar to the CME gaps. We can see two open gaps above in the 53 dollar range and the $45 range as unfilled. And today we just broke through below $40 feeling a gap from November of 2024 but also creating a new Gap between $40 and $41. This could lead to upside pressure to reclaim these gaps in the future although hard to know when that would be. There are no sizable buy limit blocks until much lower around $29 to $31. It is however worth noting that these open gaps can be closed to where price will be magnetized in the future... Right now waiting to see if Bitcoin will drop down to the 58k range where the 200 week SMA is which is usually a support Zone in Bear markets.
NASDAQ:IBITShort
by BrettFogle
1
Bitcoin: Daily and 4hrs in sync . Is this TIME for good?Bitcoin Daily and 4hrs in sinc to start is move, is this TIME for real? or is another trap. Well, We'll find out next week but for SPOT is a go to add to position or start a new one because the $85k target still on the table. Those with 10x or less know that we're still in the game and is TIME to add more. No Risk No Gain. imo The Weekly Long Term structure is already damaged but that doesn't mean it won't go to the $83k - $85k area, sure it will. imo. Play it right........Play it safe.........Know the rules of the game. Boost............Follow...........Comment.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PLong
by Numberfive
2
Gold - Preparing the final blow off top!💰Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) will rally a final +20%: 🔎Analysis summary: Just in January alone, Gold is up another +25% so far. Looking at this very bullish parabolic rally, Gold remains super strong and is still not done with the bullrun. Until Gold retests the ultimate resistance trendline, it can easily rally another +20% from the current levels. 📝Levels to watch: $6,000 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhil
40
Intel - Starting 2026 with a +50% rally!💰Intel ( NASDAQ:INTC ) just remains completely bullish: 🔎Analysis summary: Over the course of the past three weeks, Intel has been rallying an incredible +50%. Following this very bullish momentum, there is a high chance of new all time highs soon. Just give Intel some time and don't get caught up in all of this short term volatility. 📝Levels to watch: $70 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by SwingTraderPhil
24
Nothing just see chart History repeats itself. Current Price and Recent Movement: According to Yahoo Finance data, Bitcoin closed at around $63,596 on February 5, 2026, a 13.23% drop in one day. The price had previously dropped as low as $66,000. · Critical Support Levels: Many analysts consider the $65,000 level to be a key technical support. This level is both psychologically important and is the intersection of several technical indicators (such as Fibonacci levels and the ascending channel). A decisive break of this level could increase the risk of further declines. · Major Resistance (Sell Ceiling): The $85,000-$95,000 area is considered heavy resistance. High trading volume in this area indicates that many buyers are at a loss and may sell to get out of the market as the price approaches this range.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by saeedvaziiri
1
BTCUSD: Range breakdown, sell rallies below 66.0k, watch 62.5k BTCUSD is trading near $64.3k after a sharp drop. Today’s range is $62.5k to $73.4k, so I’m mapping retrace levels off that swing for clean invalidation. Key levels (from $73,406 high and $62,503 low) • Support zone: 63.1k to 62.5k (range low area) • R1: 65.1k (23.6% retrace) • R2: 66.7k (38.2% retrace) • Mid / flip: 68.0k (50% retrace) • Bull reclaim: 69.2k (61.8% retrace) • Range high: 73.4k Plan A (primary): Short the retest • Trigger: price taps 65.1k to 66.7k and rejects (lower high or bearish close on 15m to 1H) • Stop: above 68.0k • Targets: 63.1k, then 62.5k • Extension target: 60.0k psychological, only if 62.5k breaks with momentum Plan B (alternate): Long only on reclaim • Trigger: 1H close above 69.2k, then a clean retest hold • Stop: below 68.0k • Targets: 71.1k, then 73.4k Invalidation • Bear plan invalid if BTC holds above 69.2k and starts printing higher highs. Risk note Not financial advice. Confirmation first, tight invalidation, scale out into targets.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Ukamac
1
More downside for BitcoinHi traders, Last week I said in my outlook for Bitcoin we could see more downside and that is exactly what happened. After price tested the bearish Daily FVG one more time, it started to drop. So now we could see more downside for this pair. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a correction up on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bearish to trade shorts. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect. Manage your emotions, trade your edge! Eduwave
Short
by EduwaveTrading
5
Spring in play?The crypto market just went through another heavy liquidation event, with BTC flushing down to 59k. As expected, altcoins took the brunt of the move with many breaking structural lows and sentiment capitulating. Even so, a number of alts are now showing tradeable relief‑rally structures. These aren’t guarantees nothing ever is, but the setups are technically clean, with clear invalidation levels and logical upside targets if the market stabilises. The key thing to keep in mind: If BTC continues lower (which is still very possible), many of these setups will likely get invalidated and push into their yearly S2 pivots or deeper support zones. Until then, the structure on several alts supports the idea of short‑term relief before the next major decision point. I’ll be using this same template across multiple charts so the logic stays consistent. Price swept the October 10th lows and printed a low‑volume spring relative to the selling climax. It has since closed back inside the range and is currently holding above the new yearly S1 support (at least for now). Targets & Management TPs - First target sits just below the yearly pivot - If price reaches that level, trail the stop toward the range EQ Depending on BTC’s strength, the stop can continue to trail, but one step at a time Risk As always, risk management is everything. These setups are valid only while structure holds, and BTC remains the dominant variable.
by AlvinDeo96
SPY Constructive Bear Thesis | Macro + SMC + Catalyst Alignment SPY Constructive Bear Thesis | Macro + SMC + Catalyst Alignment | Feb 2026 Structure Price swept the previous swing high, printed a Change of Character (CHoCH), and is now sitting in premium at $690.62. Classic Smart Money Concepts distribution setup on the 15-minute timeframe. The projected path follows Fibonacci extensions from the recent swing: 0.5 / Equilibrium: $685.51 — entry trigger on break below 1.0 Extension: $675.86 — first target 1.618 Extension: $662.87 — stretch target, confluent with institutional put flow at $657-659 RSI at 69.28, elevated but not overbought. MACD turned negative February 3. SPY broke below its 50-day moving average on February 5 — first time since the October rally began. Volume tells the story: distribution on sell candles into the Feb 4 low, weaker volume on the bounce back to $690. This is a liquidity grab, not trend continuation. Macro Alignment Sentiment (Bearish): NAAIM exposure readings between 78th-96th percentile for 3+ consecutive months. AAII equity allocation heavy, cash levels low. Historically, this degree of crowding precedes corrections. Tariffs (Bearish): Weighted average U.S. tariff rate at 13.5% — highest since 1946. Tax Foundation estimates this as the largest tax increase as % of GDP since 1993. RBC Capital projects core CPI to peak at 3% in Q2 as passthrough hits consumers. Tech Distribution (Bearish): Alphabet's $185B AI capex guidance raised free cash flow concerns. AMD fell 17% on weak Q1 guidance. Software sector in multi-session selloff — ServiceNow, Salesforce, Workday, Adobe all hitting 52-week lows. Mag 7 names showing distribution patterns. Real Economy Divergence (Bearish): Sea-Intelligence CEO calls GDP forecasts an "economic mirage" driven by 2025 tariff front-loading. Actual freight volumes expected to decline. Maersk cutting 1,000 jobs on vessel overcapacity. The shipping data doesn't support the equity narrative. Gold (Bearish for equities): Above $5,000 and rebounding. Institutional hedging in play. Deutsche Bank reiterating $6,000 target. Catalyst Calendar 📅 February 11 — CPI Release (January data) Last print: 2.7% headline, 2.6% core. A hot number (>2.8% core) accelerates the bearish thesis by removing any near-term rate cut narrative. A cool number delays but doesn't invalidate the structure. 📅 February 20 — SCOTUS IEEPA Tariff Ruling The Supreme Court returns from recess. $133B in collected IEEPA duties at stake. If overturned, average tariff rate drops ~8 percentage points — massively bullish shock. If upheld, tariff uncertainty persists. This is the primary tail risk to the bearish position. 📅 No FOMC until March Fed is sidelined. Warsh nominated as next chair. Market expects no cuts until at least June. Probability Matrix ScenarioProbabilityTriggerSPY to $662-67555-60%Hot CPI + SCOTUS upholds tariffsConsolidation $675-68525%Cool CPI + SCOTUS delaysRally above $69515-20%SCOTUS overturns IEEPA tariffs Trade Plan Instrument: SPY dated puts, 2-3 weeks out minimum Entry trigger: Break below $685.51 (equilibrium) Target 1: $675.86 (1.0 extension) Target 2: $662.87-663.10 (1.618 cluster) Invalidation: Reclaim above $692.50 with volume Risk: Size for survival through Feb 20 SCOTUS binary Key Takeaway Structure, sentiment, macro, and catalyst calendar are aligned bearish. The one variable that can blow this up is a SCOTUS ruling invalidating IEEPA tariffs on Feb 20. That's an unhedgeable binary — so position sizing is everything. This is not a 0DTE play. Dated options, controlled risk, let the thesis develop. WaverVanir International LLC | VolanX Decision Support System Disclaimer: This is analysis, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Spring in play?The crypto market just went through another heavy liquidation event, with BTC flushing down to 59k. As expected, altcoins took the brunt of the move with many breaking structural lows and sentiment capitulating. Even so, a number of alts are now showing tradeable relief‑rally structures. These aren’t guarantees nothing ever is, but the setups are technically clean, with clear invalidation levels and logical upside targets if the market stabilises. The key thing to keep in mind: If BTC continues lower (which is still very possible), many of these setups will likely get invalidated and push into their yearly S2 pivots or deeper support zones. Until then, the structure on several alts supports the idea of short‑term relief before the next major decision point. I’ll be using this same template across multiple charts so the logic stays consistent. Price swept the October 10th lows and printed a low‑volume spring relative to the selling climax. It has since closed back inside the range and is currently holding above the new yearly S1 support (at least for now). Targets & Management TPs - First target sits just below the yearly pivot - If price reaches that level, trail the stop toward the range EQ Depending on BTC’s strength, the stop can continue to trail, but one step at a time Risk As always, risk management is everything. These setups are valid only while structure holds, and BTC remains the dominant variable.
by AlvinDeo96
Spring in play?The crypto market just went through another heavy liquidation event, with BTC flushing down to 59k. As expected, altcoins took the brunt of the move with many breaking structural lows and sentiment capitulating. Even so, a number of alts are now showing tradeable relief‑rally structures. These aren’t guarantees nothing ever is, but the setups are technically clean, with clear invalidation levels and logical upside targets if the market stabilises. The key thing to keep in mind: If BTC continues lower (which is still very possible), many of these setups will likely get invalidated and push into their yearly S2 pivots or deeper support zones. Until then, the structure on several alts supports the idea of short‑term relief before the next major decision point. I’ll be using this same template across multiple charts so the logic stays consistent. Price swept the October 10th lows and printed a low‑volume spring relative to the selling climax. It has since closed back inside the range and is currently holding above the new yearly S1 support (at least for now). Targets & Management TPs - First target sits just below the yearly pivot - If price reaches that level, trail the stop toward the range EQ Depending on BTC’s strength, the stop can continue to trail, but one step at a time Risk As always, risk management is everything. These setups are valid only while structure holds, and BTC remains the dominant variable.
by AlvinDeo96
Spring in play?The crypto market just went through another heavy liquidation event, with BTC flushing down to 59k. As expected, altcoins took the brunt of the move with many breaking structural lows and sentiment capitulating. Even so, a number of alts are now showing tradeable relief‑rally structures. These aren’t guarantees nothing ever is, but the setups are technically clean, with clear invalidation levels and logical upside targets if the market stabilises. The key thing to keep in mind: If BTC continues lower (which is still very possible), many of these setups will likely get invalidated and push into their yearly S2 pivots or deeper support zones. Until then, the structure on several alts supports the idea of short‑term relief before the next major decision point. I’ll be using this same template across multiple charts so the logic stays consistent. Price swept the October 10th lows and printed a low‑volume spring relative to the selling climax. It has since closed back inside the range and is currently holding above the new yearly S1 support (at least for now). Targets & Management TPs - First target sits just below the yearly pivot - If price reaches that level, trail the stop toward the range EQ Depending on BTC’s strength, the stop can continue to trail, but one step at a time Risk As always, risk management is everything. These setups are valid only while structure holds, and BTC remains the dominant variable.
by AlvinDeo96
Spring in play? The crypto market just went through another heavy liquidation event, with BTC flushing down to 59k. As expected, altcoins took the brunt of the move with many breaking structural lows and sentiment capitulating. Even so, a number of alts are now showing tradeable relief‑rally structures. These aren’t guarantees nothing ever is, but the setups are technically clean, with clear invalidation levels and logical upside targets if the market stabilises. The key thing to keep in mind: If BTC continues lower (which is still very possible), many of these setups will likely get invalidated and push into their yearly S2 pivots or deeper support zones. Until then, the structure on several alts supports the idea of short‑term relief before the next major decision point. I’ll be using this same template across multiple charts so the logic stays consistent. Price swept the October 10th lows and printed a low‑volume spring relative to the selling climax. It has since closed back inside the range and is currently holding above the new yearly S1 support (at least for now). Targets & Management TPs - First target sits just below the yearly pivot - If price reaches that level, trail the stop toward the range EQ Depending on BTC’s strength, the stop can continue to trail, but one step at a time Risk As always, risk management is everything. These setups are valid only while structure holds, and BTC remains the dominant variable.
by AlvinDeo96
Spring in play? The crypto market just went through another heavy liquidation event, with BTC flushing down to 59k. As expected, altcoins took the brunt of the move with many breaking structural lows and sentiment capitulating. Even so, a number of alts are now showing tradeable relief‑rally structures. These aren’t guarantees nothing ever is, but the setups are technically clean, with clear invalidation levels and logical upside targets if the market stabilises. The key thing to keep in mind: If BTC continues lower (which is still very possible), many of these setups will likely get invalidated and push into their yearly S2 pivots or deeper support zones. Until then, the structure on several alts supports the idea of short‑term relief before the next major decision point. I’ll be using this same template across multiple charts so the logic stays consistent. Price swept the October 10th lows and printed a low‑volume spring relative to the selling climax. It has since closed back inside the range and is currently holding above the new yearly S1 support (at least for now). Targets & Management TPs - First target sits just below the yearly pivot - If price reaches that level, trail the stop toward the range EQ Depending on BTC’s strength, the stop can continue to trail, but one step at a time Risk As always, risk management is everything. These setups are valid only while structure holds, and BTC remains the dominant variable.
by AlvinDeo96
Bitcoin Massive Drop ComingBased on the weekly timeframe you'll bitcoin made HH from the previous wave and now we are in a bearish wave to support. Seeing price not respecting strong PRZ levels and a 88.6 zone have confluence. I am expecting around 30k to be the bottom of this bear market. The clarity act is dragging feet. Margin calls are at an all time high causing forced sells in this market. Lower time frames are giving Lower highs and lower lows until a break of structure to the upside sellers will continue to thrive and the buyers will cry a slow painful tear.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by OrganicProfits