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Trend Analysis

12/2/25 Strong Bear Leg and Sell Vacuum Test of Support Wednesday’s candlestick (Feb. 11) was another follow-through bear bar closing near its low, trading below the 2-day EMA. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe if the bears could create more follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA or if the market would stall around the top of the prior trading range, followed by a retest of the 20-day EMA later this week. The market has traded back into the prior trading range. Bulls see the current move as a bear leg and a sell vacuum test of the prior support and magnet. They need to create strong consecutive bull bars to show they are back in control. Bears got a reversal from a double top bear flag (November 19). They created consecutive strong bear bars below the 20-day EMA in a tight bear channel, indicating persistent selling. If there is a pullback, bears want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance, followed by a second leg sideways to down to retest the current leg low (February 13). Fundamentals: • Production: Production for Feb - 10 days SPPOMA: -7.58% • Refineries: Not paying premiums vs spot futures - yet. • Exports: ITS Feb first 5 days down 10.52% We have a strong leg up in January and now a strong leg down in Feb. The bulls were unable to defend the upward move, indicating weakness. In a trading range, the prior move up and now the move down can be due to the sell vacuum effect, where traders step aside until a support and resistance level where they are comfortable to trade again. For now, (Thursday, February 12), traders will watch if the prior support level in January will act as support and form a major higher low. Or will bears be able to create more follow-through selling? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
DXY – H4 | Short-Side Technical ContextThe U.S. Dollar Index recently completed a corrective bullish channel following a strong impulsive decline. Price respected the rising channel structure but failed to sustain acceptance near the upper boundary, indicating weak continuation strength. A decisive move lower has now occurred, with price breaking out of the bullish channel to the downside and revisiting a higher-timeframe Fair Value Gap (H4 FVG). This area is acting as a reaction zone rather than a continuation base. 🔍 Key Technical Observations The bullish channel appears corrective within a broader bearish structure Price has lost channel support, signaling a potential trend shift Current interaction with the H4 FVG suggests mitigation rather than accumulation The recent pullback shows limited bullish follow-through Below current price lies untested downside liquidity, aligned with the broader bearish bias 🧠 Short-Side Scenario (Contextual) Failure to reclaim and hold above the H4 FVG may favor continuation toward lower efficiency levels A weak reaction or rejection from this zone would support bearish continuation logic Sustained acceptance back inside the prior channel would invalidate the short-side narrative ⚠️ Educational Disclaimer This idea is shared for technical and educational discussion only Not financial advice or a trade signal Always wait for confirmation aligned with your own strategy and risk framework
TVC:DXYShort
by Selena_FX_Trader
1
XAUUSD– Brian liquidity compression before expansionGold (XAUUSD) is currently trading in a controlled consolidation phase on H1, holding above the 4980 buy-side value area while remaining capped below key sell-side liquidity. From a structural perspective, the market is not trending — it is building liquidity. 🔎 Technical Structure Breakdown Price is compressing between: Buy VAL 4980 Sell VAL 5237 Strong liquidity / POC zone 5529 This creates a classic liquidity trap environment where both sides are waiting for expansion. The higher timeframe recovery from February lows remains valid, but upside continuation requires acceptance above 5237. Until then, gold remains in rotational behavior. 🌍 Macro Context – Fed Expectations Shift Strong US January employment data has effectively removed expectations for a March Fed rate cut, according to Monex macro research. This strengthens short-term USD positioning and reduces immediate upside momentum for gold. However, markets still anticipate potential easing around June. This creates a mixed environment: Short-term: USD supported → gold capped Medium-term: easing cycle still alive → structural support remains This explains why gold is consolidating rather than collapsing. 📌 Key Levels To Watch 4980 – Intraday buy value area 5237 – Sell value area 5529 – Major liquidity / expansion target Holding above 4980 keeps structure stable. Failure to break 5237 keeps price rotational. Acceptance above liquidity unlocks expansion. 🎯 Trading Perspective In this environment, the strategy remains clear: Trade liquidity reactions Avoid mid-range entries Wait for confirmation at extremes Gold is not weak — it is compressing. And compression always precedes expansion. 📍 Follow Brian on TradingView for structured XAUUSD liquidity analysis and macro-aligned technical insights.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
1
XAUUSD – Brian | Liquidity Compression Before Major ExpansionXAUUSD – Brian | Liquidity Compression Before Major Expansion Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading in a controlled consolidation phase on H1, holding above the 4980 buy-side value area while remaining capped below key sell-side liquidity. From a structural perspective, the market is not trending — it is building liquidity. 🔎 Technical Structure Breakdown Price is compressing between: Buy VAL 4980 Sell VAL 5237 Strong liquidity / POC zone 5529 This creates a classic liquidity trap environment where both sides are waiting for expansion. The higher timeframe recovery from February lows remains valid, but upside continuation requires acceptance above 5237. Until then, gold remains in rotational behaviour. 🌍 Macro Context – Fed Expectations Shift Strong US January employment data has effectively removed expectations for a March Fed rate cut, according to Monex macro research. This strengthens short-term USD positioning and reduces immediate upside momentum for gold. However, markets still anticipate potential easing around June. This creates a mixed environment: Short-term: USD supported → gold capped Medium-term: easing cycle still alive → structural support remains This explains why gold is consolidating rather than collapsing. 📌 Key Levels To Watch 4980 – Intraday buy value area 5237 – Sell value area 5529 – Major liquidity / expansion target Holding above 4980 keeps structure stable. Failure to break 5237 keeps price rotational. Acceptance above liquidity unlocks expansion. 🎯 Trading Perspective In this environment, the strategy remains clear: Trade liquidity reactions Avoid mid-range entries Wait for confirmation at extremes Gold is not weak — it is compressing. And compression always precedes expansion. 📍 Follow Brian on TradingView for structured XAUUSD liquidity analysis and macro-aligned technical insights.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
NASDAQ100 M30Yesterday we had NFP and the initial job claims were low meaning the dollar is weakening more investors will plunge more money into stock market 💯🔥 On this setup we’re looking at ascending channel/trend in M30 chart Also we’re given Inverse H&S .. looking for our long/buy entries as market is on our buying level 💯 This trade idea is to secure 300points TP entry :25198 SL is given TP 1 : 50points TP 2 : 150 points Then let rest of the trades running 💯 until we accumulate 300points 30points in profits trail stop SL to entry ❤️ Cheers guys , happy trading
SKILLING:US100Long
by biluza96
1
GOLD BUY SETUP FEB 12 2026Gold (XAUUSD) – 15M Ascending Structure with Bullish Breakout Setup Gold is currently trading inside a short-term compression structure following a strong impulsive move upward. Price action has formed a rising wedge/ascending triangle within a broader bullish channel, suggesting accumulation before the next expansion. 🔹 Market Structure Higher lows maintained inside ascending trendlines Compression toward the apex of the triangle Repeated rejections from the 5,080–5,100 resistance zone 🔹 Key Levels Resistance: 5,100 → 5,135 (major supply zone) Breakout Target: 5,155–5,160 Support: 5,060 → 5,050 Major Support: 5,000 psychological level 🔹 Bullish Scenario A confirmed breakout above 5,100 opens the path toward the 5,135 supply zone. Sustained momentum above that area could trigger continuation toward 5,155+. 🔹 Bearish Scenario Failure to hold 5,060 support may lead to a sweep of 5,050 liquidity and potentially a deeper retracement toward 5,000. Volume expansion and strong candle closes outside of the compression will be key for confirmation. As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk properly.
TVC:GOLDLong
by ExuberanceTrading
1
Could we see a bounce from here?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot nd could bounce to the swing high resistance. Pivot: 64.63 1st Support: 63.89 1st Resistance: 66.24 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDLong
by IC Markets
H1 CHART HART OUTLOOK Gold is currently trading inside a compression structure below a major resistance zone, after a strong impulsive bullish expansion. The H1 chart is showing a classic accumulation → breakout attempt → decision phase. Let’s break the full market mind step-by-step: 🔎 1️⃣ Market Structure (H1) Strong bullish impulse created higher highs & higher lows. Price entered a supply / resistance zone (5085 – 5128 area). Now forming tight consolidation under resistance. Volatility is decreasing → indicates energy building phase. Structure is still technically bullish because higher lows are intact. 🧠 2️⃣ Smart Money Perspective What is happening psychologically? Retail buyers are entering on breakout anticipation. Sellers are defending resistance. Liquidity is resting: Above recent highs (buy stops) Below consolidation lows (sell stops) Market likely wants to grab liquidity before real expansion. 🔴 3️⃣ Resistance Zone: 5085 – 5128 This is the decision zone. If price: Rejects strongly → fake breakout scenario. Closes strong H1 candle above 5128 → continuation rally. This area is heavy supply. Without strong volume, breakout may fail. 🟢 4️⃣ Bullish Scenario (Break & Hold) Condition: Clean H1 close above 5128 Followed by retest holding above 5085 Targets: 5160 (intraday resistance) 5200 (psychological level) 5240 – 5260 expansion zone Bias shifts strongly bullish after confirmed breakout. 🔻 5️⃣ Bearish Scenario (Rejection & Sweep) Condition: Strong rejection wick Bearish engulfing on H1 Break below consolidation low (around 5035) Targets: 5013 demand 4980 liquidity pool 4940 if momentum increases Break of 5035 = short-term structure shift bearish.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Zack01acadmey
1
Alphabet ($GOOGL) is likely heading back toward at least $270.Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) is likely heading back toward at least $270. Four reasons: 👇 - New high rejection on earnings. We saw a similar setup about a year ago — markets often repeat behavior. - The 2025 trend showed a late-stage acceleration, which historically often precedes a reversal. - The last few months resemble a developing head-and-shoulders pattern. It’s not perfect, but in trading, close is often close enough. - If you’re heavily long and want to reduce overnight exposure, a short setup with Google can help balance portfolio risk. Credit to a sharp member who brought this to my attention before we shorted it this morning.
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by Swing_Trader_Saan
EUR-USD Free Signal! Sell! Hello,Traders! EURUSD rejects a strong supply zone after buy-side liquidity sweep. Clear bearish BOS and displacement suggest continuation toward sell-side liquidity below. -------------------- Stop Loss: 1.1909 Take Profit: 1.1843 Entry: 1.1880 Time Frame: 3H -------------------- Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
Robinhood Markets Inc. Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD): Navigating a Strategic Pivot Amidst Crypto Revenue Headwinds Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) finds itself at a critical inflection point. The retail brokerage recently reported fourth-quarter earnings that, while showcasing record total revenue, missed analyst expectations due to a sharp and precipitous decline in cryptocurrency trading volumes. This shortfall triggered an immediate and severe market reaction, with shares plunging nearly 9% in a single session and erasing approximately one-third of the company's year-to-date value. Yet, beneath this surface-level turbulence, management is aggressively articulating a forward-looking narrative centered on what CEO Vlad Tenev describes as the dawn of a "prediction markets supercycle"—a strategic pivot that could fundamentally redefine Robinhood's business model and growth trajectory. The Earnings Reality: A Tale of Two Businesses Robinhood's fourth-quarter financial results present a study in contrasts. On one hand, total revenue climbed 27% year-over-year to a record $1.28 billion, demonstrating the underlying scale and resilience of its diversified brokerage operations. Segments outside of crypto performed exceptionally well: options revenue surged 41% to $314 million, equities trading revenue jumped 54% to $94 million, and net interest revenue rose 39% to $411 million. Additionally, the company's premium subscription service, Robinhood Gold, saw its subscriber base expand by an impressive 58% to 4.2 million members, highlighting growing user engagement and willingness to pay for enhanced features. However, these strengths were overshadowed by the dramatic contraction in the company's cryptocurrency business. Crypto transaction revenue plummeted 38% year-over-year to $221 million, down from $268 million in the prior quarter. Even more concerning was the collapse in organic trading activity on Robinhood's proprietary platform. While total crypto notional volume reached $82 billion, the vast majority of this activity was concentrated on Bitstamp, the exchange Robinhood acquired in mid-2025. Trading volumes on the Robinhood app itself dropped a staggering 52% year-over-year, reflecting a sharp decline in retail investor participation and enthusiasm in the crypto markets. Technical Breakdown: Support Levels Under Siege The market's reaction to these results was swift and technically significant. Robinhood stock closed the prior session at $85.60 and immediately traded down approximately 8% in premarket activity, breaching several critical technical thresholds in the process: Moving Average Breakdown: The stock decisively broke below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $96.42, its 50-day EMA of $108.13, its 100-day EMA of $111.83, and its 200-day EMA of $101.93. This "death cross" of moving averages across multiple timeframes signals a complete collapse of the stock's short-to-medium-term technical structure. Critical Support Failure: The previously reliable $90 support level—a zone that had held firm during multiple prior tests—was breached decisively, converting it into new resistance. Oversold Conditions Without Confirmation: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 34.68, approaching traditionally oversold territory. However, the indicator continues to trend lower in lockstep with price, exhibiting no bullish divergence. This alignment confirms that downside momentum remains intact and that a sustainable bottom has not yet been established. Immediate Support Zone: The stock is currently testing the $75-$78 range, representing the upper boundary of a prior consolidation zone. A failure to hold this level would open the door to the $65-$70 region, where limited structural support exists. The Strategic Pivot: Prediction Markets as the Next Frontier In response to these crypto headwinds, CEO Vlad Tenev is aggressively repositioning Robinhood's growth narrative around an entirely new asset class: prediction markets. Speaking on the company's earnings call, Tenev made a bold, declarative statement that is likely to frame the company's strategic communications for the foreseeable future: "We're just at the beginning of a prediction market supercycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time." This is not merely aspirational rhetoric; it is supported by tangible, accelerating business metrics. Robinhood reported that its prediction markets volume more than doubled in the fourth quarter, with $12 billion in contracts executed during its first full year of operations in 2025. Momentum has accelerated into the new year, with the company already recording $4 billion in volume year-to-date. Robinhood's ambition extends beyond simply participating in this emerging ecosystem; the company intends to dominate it. Tenev confirmed that Robinhood plans to launch its own proprietary prediction market platform—operated as a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group—later this year. This represents a significant strategic escalation. Currently, Robinhood partners with existing exchange operators to offer prediction contracts. By bringing the infrastructure in-house, the company gains: Full Control Over Contract Offerings: The ability to curate and innovate on the types of events and outcomes users can trade. Superior Margin Economics: Capturing a greater share of the revenue and profit per contract rather than sharing economics with third-party partners. Enhanced User Experience: Seamless integration within the Robinhood ecosystem, potentially driving higher engagement and retention. This move positions Robinhood to directly challenge established prediction market leaders like Kalshi and Polymarket, leveraging its massive retail user base and best-in-class user experience to capture market share rapidly. Crypto: A Long-Term Conviction Amidst Near-Term Pain Despite the severe downturn in crypto trading revenue, Tenev remains publicly "very bullish" on the industry's long-term prospects. In a CNBC interview following the earnings release, he reaffirmed Robinhood's commitment to expanding its crypto offerings alongside its prediction markets business. General Manager Johann Kerbrat, speaking at CoinDesk's Consensus Hong Kong conference, provided additional color on the company's crypto strategy. He observed that current market conditions differ from prior downturns; rather than retreating entirely, customers are "buying the dip" and growing their portfolios. Kerbrat also advocated for platforms to pass stablecoin yields directly to consumers while maintaining full transparency regarding the absence of FDIC insurance, positioning Robinhood as a consumer-friendly advocate in an often-opaque industry. Upcoming Catalyst: The "Take Flight" Event Investors seeking greater clarity on Robinhood's strategic roadmap need not wait long. The company has scheduled its "Take Flight" event for March 4, where Tenev is expected to introduce new products and provide deeper insights into the prediction markets initiative, potential tokenization efforts, and the broader evolution of the platform. This event represents a critical near-term catalyst that could either validate the supercycle thesis and arrest the stock's decline or, conversely, disappoint expectations and exacerbate selling pressure. Technical and Strategic Framework: Key Levels to Watch For traders and investors navigating this volatile setup, clearly defined technical levels provide essential guideposts: Critical Support Zones: Primary Support: $60.00 – A breach below this level would represent a complete unwind of the post-acquisition premium and signal a structural breakdown in the long-term bullish thesis. Major Long-Term Support: $50.00 – This represents a foundational support zone from earlier in Robinhood's public trading history. A decline to this area would indicate a deep bearish repricing but could present a strategic, long-term accumulation opportunity for investors with a multi-year horizon. Fibonacci Retracement Take-Profit Targets (measured from a prior significant high to the recent swing low): Initial Recovery Target: $91.24 – Corresponding to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. Reclaiming this zone would signal the first stage of trend repair and the conversion of former support at $90 back into support. Secondary Bullish Target: $103.22 – Aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci level. A move to this zone would represent a meaningful recovery and likely require a positive catalyst, such as a well-received "Take Flight" event or stabilization in crypto trading volumes. Major Trend Recovery Target: $112.90 – The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Achieving this target would indicate a resumption of the primary uptrend and a full recovery of the post-earnings decline. Conclusion: A High-Conviction, High-Risk Pivot Robinhood stands at a crossroads defined by stark contrasts: a legacy crypto business in cyclical decline versus an emerging prediction markets franchise with potentially exponential growth; near-term earnings disappointment versus a visionary long-term narrative; and a broken technical chart versus defined support levels offering a potential risk-reward entry. The company's "prediction markets supercycle" thesis is ambitious, untested at scale, and faces established competitors. However, Robinhood has demonstrated a repeated capacity to disrupt incumbent financial platforms through superior user experience and aggressive customer acquisition. For investors willing to tolerate significant near-term volatility and narrative risk, the current valuation—reflected in the stock's approach toward critical support zones—may offer a compelling entry point ahead of the March 4 "Take Flight" event. The coming weeks will be decisive. A successful product reveal and evidence of accelerating prediction markets adoption could catalyze a rapid re-rating toward the Fibonacci recovery targets. Conversely, failure to articulate a credible, monetizable roadmap could see the stock test the $60 and even $50 support levels. In either scenario, Robinhood has re-emerged as one of the most closely watched, high-beta, and controversially debated names in the financial technology sector.
NASDAQ:HOODLong
by KalaGhazi
UnimaginableA company that, in past years, faced some legal issues for having facilitated hospital admissions was punished by the market with a massive sell‑off. However, revenue and sales keep rising, and the huge trading volumes show strong interest in the stock. Last week’s confirmed breakout triggered the new target at $27.5, and I immediately took the opportunity to start accumulating, with the expectation of a (devastating) medium‑ to long‑term rally that could easily triple the current price. Updates will follow on lower time frames. As always, feel free to leave a like if you enjoy these ideas. Any comments are welcome. Have a great weekend.
NASDAQ:ACHCLong
by balinor
KFY — Compression Near Apex, Breakout Setting UpHello Everyone, followers, Let's continue to another one :) KFY - Korn Ferry Let's drill down: 📊 Technical Overview KFY is compressing inside a symmetrical triangle, with price coiling near the apex. Moving averages are flattening, signaling energy buildup rather than weakness. It broke out down trend to up on Friday. 🔹 Key Levels Support 67.00–67.20 → Lower triangle support 65.50 → Prior demand / invalidation level Resistance / Targets 69.80–70.00 → Immidiate resistance 72.10 → 0.5 Fib 74.30–74.50 → 0.618 Fib / First Target 🔮 Outlook This is a decision zone — expansion is likely once price continue to leave the triangle. 🎯 What I Expect I’m watching for a confirmed break above 70, ideally with volume. Failure to break could lead to another rotation toward triangle support. We could expect quick pull-back to break zone If so then I will decide what to to depends on price direction. If you enjoy and like clean, simple analysis — follow me for more. This is just my thinking and it is not invesment suggestion , please do not make any decision with my anaylsis. Have a lovely Sunday to all and hopefully green trade day for next Week. #SPX500 #NASDAQ #KFY #Trendanalysis
NYSE:KFYLong
by streak35
BTC — Price Slice. Capital Sector. 57979.92 BPC 11© Bolzen | The Architect | BPC Framework Bolzen Market Institute 🏷 BTC — Price Slice. Capital Sector. Date of publication on TradingView: 12.02.2026 🏷 57979.92 — at the time of publication, the price has not been reached. 🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant — Strength Index: 11 The energy block reflects the intentions of capital. The direction of capital flow is determined dynamically. The key liquidation mechanism lies in the price’s tendency to move toward areas where real system participants are concentrated — regardless of whether they are in longs or shorts. Such zones represent areas of asymmetric advantage: as the price approaches them, some participants are forced to close positions with losses, others take profits, and a third group (institutional players) uses this flow to enter in the direction of the next concentration zone. Institutional players, through miners, generate energy blocks. These blocks subsequently form the range of capital movement on various timeframes for market speculators. However, the ultimate goal in ensuring liquidity is to reach the energy block mark. The results are presented in the dashboard for the international stage. It is necessary to determine manually, without the use of external software, the direction of the impact node and the concentration of real system participants. This is achieved through high cognitive and intellectual work — without templates, using pure chart analysis only. Three-dimensional analytics is intellectual property. The methodology is closed and does not require evaluation through the lens of the past world. We offer the opportunity to think, but we do not provide trading recommendations and are not educators. Thank you, and we consider TradingView an unbiased platform for demonstrating the transition into a new analytical reality. Quantum structure of commitments and capital movement in price formation within energy blocks. 🏷 Vertical chart — Energy Grid Dashboard. 🏷 Static tape No. 1: the price is published in the order of energy block production. 🏷 The price energy block is already ordered — not by time, but by execution priority. It is important not to confuse: block priority is dynamically rearranged in response to hidden energy impulses, while the order of price execution reflects their manifestation in the market. Each price in the dynamic tape is tied to measurement indicators of energy production inaccessible to the general public. Those who see the structure before its manifestation do not follow the price — they anticipate it. EΞ2Φ8Ψ45Θ·ζ⁻¹·106Λ732·Ω² 📎 Screenshot: 🏷 When trading from levels, use liquidation zones from BPC 10 and above. 🏷 Bolzen Liquidity Map — BTC (numerical equivalent of the map): Updated Bolzen Liquidity Map — BTC — available in restricted access. The permanent energy grid dashboard for ETH and BTC is publicly available and intended for international institutional review. Dear international community, I thank the TradingView moderation for impartiality and support of analytical works at the global level, as well as everyone who follows my research. This platform serves as a space to demonstrate a contribution to the development of analytics. Attention and time are your main resources. ATH is emotions; timeframes are your best allies. Thank you. — The Architect BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
Short
by Bolzen_Market_Institute
EURUSD Weekly Outlook (SMC + HTF Resistance Confluence)📊 Market Structure Overview EURUSD is currently trading into a major weekly supply / resistance zone while respecting a long-term descending trendline connecting multiple swing highs. Price has approached this area several times historically and reacted with strong bearish momentum — making it a high-probability reaction zone on the HTF. 🔎 Key Technical Observations Price is testing a multi-year descending trendline → strong dynamic resistance. Presence of SMC concepts on chart: BOS / CHoCH and visible FVG zones below current price. Current rally looks like a liquidity grab into premium pricing within weekly structure. Equal / relative highs marked — potential buy-side liquidity before reversal. HTF structure overall remains bearish / corrective, not a confirmed bullish trend reversal. 📍 Trading Plan (Idea — Not Financial Advice) ➡️ Primary Bias: Bearish from weekly resistance. ➡️ Entry Concept: Wait for lower-timeframe confirmation such as: Bearish engulfing candle Pin bar rejection Market structure shift / CHoCH ➡️ Targets: First reaction → mid FVG / internal demand Major target → HTF demand zone around parity region (~1.00 area) Extended bearish scenario → deeper weekly demand near lower red zone ⚠️ Risk Factors / Invalidation Strong weekly close above trendline and resistance zone. Bullish continuation with sustained higher highs + higher lows on HTF. Macro catalysts (ECB/Fed policy shifts) could accelerate volatility. 🧠 Final Thoughts This setup aligns with a classic premium sell model — price rallies into HTF supply + trendline confluence before targeting imbalances below. Patience is key: confirmation matters more than prediction.
by KingProTrader
XAUUSD 1H Outlook: Weak-High StallXAUUSD 1H Outlook: Weak-High Stall + Range Compression Signals a Sell-to-Demand Rotation (Key Levels + Fibonacci, EMA, RSI) 1H Market Structure (What the chart is saying) Gold has transitioned from a strong recovery leg into a tight sideways distribution band under a marked Weak High (top red line). The last sequence shows repeated attempts to grind higher, followed by stalling candles and compression—a typical pre-expansion pattern. The red down arrows on the chart align with the most common outcome in this context: a range breakdown that rotates price into lower demand zones. Bias for today: Bearish while price remains capped under the Weak High and fails to sustain above the range ceiling. Key Resistance Zones (Where Shorts Have an Edge) 5054 – 5060: Immediate ceiling (recent equal highs / range cap). 5068 – 5076: Upper supply pocket (sweep zone for stop-hunts). 5085 – 5105: Weak High / premium supply (best R:R if reached and rejected). Trading note: A wick into 5068–5105 followed by a weak close is often the cleanest confirmation to sell. Key Support Zones (Downside Targets and Reaction Areas) 5035 – 5015: First demand inside the current range floor (near-term magnet). 4940 – 4910: Larger demand block (main target if 5015 breaks). 4860 – 4820: Deep demand zone (continuation target if selling accelerates). 4705 – 4625: Strong Low region (macro support from the chart). Fibonacci Map (Timing Pullbacks + Targets) Apply Fibonacci on the latest impulsive up-leg into the distribution highs: 0.382 – 0.5 retracement often aligns with 5035–5015 (first meaningful support). 0.618 retracement frequently maps into 4940–4910 (main demand objective). Interpretation: if price breaks down from this distribution, the most common rotation is toward 0.5 then 0.618 before the market decides whether to bounce or trend lower. EMA + RSI Filters (Reduce False Signals) Suggested: EMA20 / EMA50 / EMA200 + RSI(14) EMA confirmation Inside a range, EMA20/50 can chop—avoid entries mid-range. Short confirmation improves when: price rejects resistance, then closes below EMA20, and fails to reclaim EMA20/50 on the pullback. RSI confirmation Watch for bearish divergence near 5054–5105 (price holds highs while RSI weakens). Continuation probability increases if RSI drops below 50 during the breakdown and stays capped there on retests. Trading Plans (Clear Triggers, Stops, Targets) Plan A: Sell the Rally Into Supply (Primary Setup) Best when price pops into resistance and prints rejection. Entry zones: Conservative: 5054 – 5060 Premium: 5068 – 5105 Stop-loss: Above the sweep high (or above 5105 for premium entries) Targets: TP1: 5035 – 5015 TP2: 4940 – 4910 TP3: 4860 – 4820 Execution tip: take partial at TP1 and move stop to breakeven once price holds below 5015. Plan B: Breakdown-and-Retest Short (Confirmation Entry) Trigger: A clean 1H close below 5015, then a retest that fails to reclaim 5015–5035. Entry: rejection on the retest Stop-loss: above the retest swing high Targets: 4940–4910, then 4860–4820 This avoids selling the absolute bottom of the range. Plan C: Tactical Long Only at Demand (Counter-Trend) Not the base case, but valid if sellers exhaust into demand. Trigger: Price reaches 4940–4910 and prints a strong reversal candle (engulfing / long lower wick) with RSI divergence. Entry: after confirmation inside demand Stop-loss: below demand low Targets: 5015–5035, then 5054–5060 Keep it quick unless price reclaims the range ceiling. What Invalidates the Bearish Bias Bearish bias weakens if: price breaks above 5105 and holds (not just wicks), and retests 5068–5105 as support. That would signal acceptance above supply and shift the plan toward buy pullbacks. Bottom Line XAUUSD 1H is showing distribution under a Weak High with clear compression. The highest-probability play today is to sell rallies into 5054–5060 / 5068–5105, targeting the demand ladder 5035–5015 → 4940–4910 → 4860–4820.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
1
Gold is quietly regaining its position on February 12, 2026📈 Trendline The ascending trendline has been respected cleanly from the most recent low. Structure: consecutive Higher Lows → the uptrend remains valid. Price is still trading above the trendline = buyers are still in control. 👉 As long as the trendline is not clearly broken, priority remains on buy setups in line with the trend. 🟢 Support Zone: 5,001 – 4,999 Confluence with: The lower boundary of the most recent sideways range The accumulation zone before the last push up The ascending trendline This is the defensive area for buyers. Expected reaction: If price pulls back here, we may see rejection candles or consolidation → continuation to the upside. If strongly broken: → Short-term uptrend weakens → Price may drop deeper to retest lower support zones. 🔴 Resistance Zone: 5,200 – 5,202 A level where price was previously rejected. Price is now gradually moving up to retest this zone. Two main scenarios: 1️⃣ Rejection at resistance Long upper wicks or a bearish engulfing candle → Price may retrace back toward the 5,000 area. 2️⃣ Strong breakout above 5,200 Clear candle close above resistance → Confirms supply breakout → Opens room for a new bullish expansion. 📌 Trade Setups BUY GOLD: 5,001 – 4,999 Stop Loss: 4,991 Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips SELL GOLD: 5,200 – 5,202 Stop Loss: 5,210 Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AstronautPioneer
Buy NZD/USD at descending trendline / 50% Fib retracementThe NZD/USD pair has broken a descending trendline on the monthly / weekly timeframes which is very bullish. There is a chance price action might retest this level for the next up leg. First profit is 78.6% fib retracement at 0.6186 on the weekly timeframes and eventually 0.6378. Buy Limit : 0.5910 50% Fib Retracement last move Stop : 0.5831 under 200 Daily MA Profit : 0.6186 78.6% Fib retracement (Weekly) Risk 2 : 7 / stop is 79 pips
Long
by ForexExpats1