TYX has been falling and now is right on support. RSI is in oversold area. I will not be surprised if it start to bounce from here to 2.5 level. That will be a bad case for long bond like TLT.
TYX is still in a down trend though it is trying to rebound. It is in a triangle and can break out or break down. When it is the triangle the market is checked.
MACD negative. I will watch the blue support line. If it breaks, it might retest the all time low.
40 week MA rolled over and is pointing down. Also a down slop channel is formed.
A small breakout and a healthy RSI and MACD look. A close above 2.68 will confirm the short term bullish move.
Japan 30 years: 1.192; German 30 years: 0.933 (as of today). US 30 years: 2.56. So in terms of global balancing, US long bond rate has more room to fall.
Broke down, made lower high after lower lows. Could hit 2.5 if the trend continues.
Price, RSI and MACD all have a rolled over looking, but we want the blue support to break for confirmation.
The red resistance is critical. It is forming an inverse head and shoulders. A breakout means the rate can go as high as 3.3. So far the trend is still up.
Back in November, I thought there might be a breakout just like May 2013. It did not happen and instead the rate dropped about 20 basis points. Note both price and RSI are breaking down. RSI is negative even though just a little bit. Is it targeting 2%? We will have to wait and see.
It could be wedge developing There is similar picture in AUDCNY If TYX breaks above recent High High was it 3.15 ??? or something like that? If it breaks it means there are two forces playing One Deflation in general economy Second - US Treasury bonds become RISKY!!! That's why TYX is going up FED will follow So there are two scarce commodities left on a...
Market is now anticipate December rate hike. MACD turning positive and RSI is strengthening. The chart looks bullish and seems suggesting rate hike is indeed coming. Expect TYX to rise to 3.7 in coming several months. So it might a good idea for preparing shorting long bond like TLT.
A comparison between the 30 year yield and bond prices shows that when they Hit extreme levels, ( bond prices hit a trend line high, and yields a trend-line low, crude oil tends to bottoms after a few months. Also in the shorter term there tends to be a negative correlation between bond prices and crude oil prices( or positive between yields and crude prices). At...
We will know the direction better in the coming week.
The triangle is about to exhaust and we will know if it will break out or break down soon. That will impact all asset classes, risk on vs. risk off so to speak.
It may be a wedge developing. Look at MACD and TYX (Momentum on long charts) Gold rises when interest rates rise. D NOT COMPLETED YET E down - not necessary to the line and strong move up after
Watch the red resistance carefully. A breakout means the rate might be on next leg up. Otherwise It may test 2.65 area if it loses the blue support line.