QE messed up fundamentals, lets try to keep it technical but still keep this in mind
This is how it looks as of this week. Note that the 40 week MA is turning flat, and the spread is trying to go higher after a re-rest.
rate made a higher high and is approaching the resistance (again,but higher). RSI and MACD continue to diverge, disagreeing the rising rate. We will have to see how the rate responds to the resistance (keep crawling higher in the band, break out, back down). The bias is bullish for now, but giving the rising wedge, short term pull back is quite likely.
Also both RSI and MACD diverged from the rising rate. There is a good chance to revisit lower channel support (2.8 level) in the next several weeks. It has a very similar setup back in 2013.
Past 4 bond routs lasted 12 - 15 months, touched the red resistance line and then backed off. If history is the guide, the current one has been going on for 5 months now and may have another 7 - 10 months to go and may touch 3.7. So looks like any bond rally should be sold/short until the target 3.7 is reached.
The multi-decade long trend is firmly entrenched. Until the upper bound of the trend-line is pierced, I remain bullish on 30 YR Yields.
broke out, and now retesting the old resistance (now the support). Given RSI profile, a bounce up from here is very likely . If so the breakout may be confirmed. If not, down to the blue support is likely.
Price closed the week above all major resistance and above 40 week MA. MACD positive and RSI is strong. Daily chart shows overbought so short term rate pullback is likely. We will have to see how this chart looks next Friday to see if this bullishness can hold.
Some forecast based on support/resistance and channels. You should trust this chart if you believe in long term weather forecast :-). But I will track the chart on monthly basis.
TYX decisively broke out last week (pink line) and if it can take out red resistance, that will confirm the trend change and will likely bring the 30 year rate to 3.4 by year end. So we will see how it responds to the red resistance in the coming weeks.
This is a followup to the same chart from last month. The yield spread did manage to break out (red resistance line and 10 MA). But we do not know what this means to the broad market at this point.
A perfect storm waiting to happen with the stock market of major economies like US, Japan, Europe, and most recently China reaching for new highs. The breakout of China stock market certainly doesn't look healthy at all. Money will find its way where returns are the best, when there's nothing else to invest in the real economy during a slowdown. Its a game of...
The yellow line show us a nice floor to TYX for bounce... IM NOT SEEING RATES GOING UP, Im just think that in the next weeks rates will bounce from a short term perspective... Then yes, we will break the yellow line and I think that we are going to see new lows (below 2%)
It broke out in February, successfully retested the the red line in March, and now is bouncing up with upward pointing 10 week MA.. Maybe it is time to reduce long duration bond exposure (unless blue support breaks again).
This chart studies spread between 30 year and 10 year treasury yield, and its correlation with SPY top. In 2000 and 2007, breakout of this spread marked the top of the market. So can this time be different? Let's wait until it breaks out (if ever) and then we will know.
RSI is right on support line. Will know if it can reverse soon.
No definite answer. As shown on the chart, some cases took quite long time with big drops, some took no time and recovered quickly. Bottom line is to assume it should keep going lower and watch signs of reversal on weekly chart closely.