With Yields miles ahead of the moves lately we are approaching a major breakout in US banks, a relative breakout here of the downtrend will be significant going into year-end. BKX breaking out will be quite a bullish set-up for the overall market: The major top in USD will help a lot here as we enter into the next chapter in the economic cycle... highly...
As we enter into the final Q, a good time to update the US10Y chart. Those following the previous updates are well aware that we have been tracking the entire leg down: We got the zigzag at the lows as widely anticipated and with the technicals are starting to point higher I look for any signs of a base forming. While my bias is for lower global yields it is...
Huge move down starting late '18 to early Sep '19 (from 3.25% to 1.43%). Whist overall the US 10 yr yield will likely fall over time, a short term retracement bounce to 1.86%, then possibly 2.125%.
Here we go for Jackson … Fed policy is what matters this weekend and in my books markets are headed for a bearish surprise. The inverted curve is going to create a USD shortage and keep USD higher which will undermine risk assets. Fed funds are now pricing almost 100 bps of cuts by Sept 2020, though Fed talking heads are saying there is no urgency to move again....
Here we are tracking the soft floor coming in Yields once more. We have been in perfect sync with the previous legs down ahead of the Fed cut fact, now it is time once more to trade the expectation of another 25bp cut, this time in September with Trump and markets trying to force the Powell hand again. The topside of the channel will attract a lot of buying...
As time passes this looks more and more like a 5 wave decline since the October 2018 highs. We are cooking for one final sweep of the lows as liquidity begins to fade for summer. The final hurdle to clear before business will close is Fed, here tracking for a 50bp cut to kickstart the easing cycle. On the technical side; the market will have to break above...
Here tracking a 5th and final leg lower in US yields. The selloff since November 2018 has looked impulsive in nature, since we marked a 4th wave the bounce from the latest lows, the bounce has met the ABC corrective target at 2.141%. We are also capped below the 38.2% and the 50MA for those trading the 'tactical rebound into Fed'. We 'know' the price wont run...
Here we are tracking for a tactical rebound as we go into July Fed to 50-day. The rebound in payrolls last Friday is weighing on market expectations for a 50bps rate cut this month. The repricing we’ve seen is closer in nature to a 25bp cut and with the short-circuit in expectations it is “loading time” again for risk-off assets. Given the circumstances a 50bps...
The risk correction is causing investors to shift exposure away from risky unhedged US holdings… USDJPY looks set to continue the decline towards 106 as Japanese investors shift from US exposure (remember this is largely unhedged via a flat yield curve) to Europe (mostly hedged via a steep yield curve). Japanese pension funds I talk to are especially trying to...
Chart Info Market : BONDS Currency : US10Y Time Frame : D Date : Oct 12 2017 **Don't Forget To Like and Subscribe
We are in a critical point for gold and silver, tomorrow or Friday (NFP) we will have a clearer picture. I believe the resistance will hold. If that's the case, gold and silver will go down. I think silver will be more rewarding among the 2. Pay close attention to the 10Y behavior before taking any position. Will update when we have a clear direction.
I have been bearish on the Dollar for the past few weeks. Even with good US economic data the yields have been selling off aggressively breaking the wedge. My target for US yields is the weekly gap and I expect the dollar to fall below 100.00 in the coming weeks. I'm expecting a retest of the lower trend line on the yields and continuation of the bearish sentiment.
Take care & analyzed it again - it`s always your decision ... (for a bigger picture zoom the chart) This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards :) Aaron
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :) Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards Aaron