ridethepig
Short

US 10-year yields continue to crater...

TVC:US10Y   US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield
As time passes this looks more and more like a 5 wave decline since the October 2018 highs. We are cooking for one final sweep of the lows as liquidity begins to fade for summer. The final hurdle to clear before business will close is Fed, here tracking for a 50bp cut to kickstart the easing cycle.

On the technical side; the market will have to break above 2.196% in order for us to build an argument for the market having put in a meaningful floor. Invalidation and reassessment is needed above and only above.

Expect consolidation as we position for Fed, before the flow continues towards the downside in yields.

Best of luck all those positioning in Fixed Income for a crucial Fed.
Aug 03
Trade closed: target reached

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Comments

In your Telegram post you sound 100% certain there will be a 50 bp rate cut by FED. What makes you so confident?
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