ridethepig
Long

ridethepig | US Yields Breaking Higher!

TVC:US10Y   US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield
So much for the 5th wave... the formulation has truncated after the payrolls report.

This is an example of an erroneous freeing. In similar patterns, the rebound will translate in a 5 wave impulsive sequence which is somewhat cramped after the knee-jerk reaction from covid. The appropriate positional response to the lows here is to ride the pig, what we are talking about is taking measures outguessing the road to normalisation of rates which we have not yet recognised as such.


Now we turn to the analysis of play in unemployment claims, despite how the media are selling business as usual we have a long (and likely sluggish) road to recovery, because of the poor handling of lockdowns and closures.

The one who is playing the macro data always has the upper hand, but this is especially the case once we clear the 'knee-jerk reaction' from the virus. The recurring bankruptcies, layoffs, social unrest and shutdowns have been forgotten about after politicians promising diversions! Smart money will not move so easily. Retail will pay their tribute in the form of horrible losses to an unconditional truth. Vix has completed the round trip, first prize to all those riding it from 85!


Of course the swing from 85 was no less imaginative than the swing from +/- 11 lows:


We are entering into a new development for volatility , my models are forecasting a dramatic expansion into year-end which will make it very difficult for manual or emotional players. 2022/2023 looks like the start of the next bull run in global equities, expectations are for advanced conditions to remain with us for 12-18 months.
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