ridethepig

Consolidation for Spring / Summer looks likely

TVC:US10Y   US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield
For those with a background in waves you will know a 4th wave typically does not retrace more than 50%, in this case 2.55%. Anything above here will question the possibility of a bottom already being placed.

The rise in yields since March has looked impulsive so far which can be early hints and signals that a further move higher is coming. The only level in play here is 2.55% which is the 50% retracement .

Anything above here will do serious damage to the technical flow and will increase confidence in the floor.

Best of luck all those trading Fixed income or tracking it today.

Comment: A good time to update the 10Y chart before we close for a long weekend:


Vol is bouncing somewhat in sync with the rally but remains low on the LT... those investors who are biased towards higher rates and higher vol will be considering buying cheaper payers or payer spreads like the 1Y30Y
Trade closed: target reached
Comment: A perfectly mapped call, well done those riding the macro flow. This was a very complex environment to trade.

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Hey @ridethepig, if I summed up correctly my weekend reading:
when 10 YR T-bone goes up,
10 YR Bond Yield goes down,
and currency (USD) will chase it (go down)?
Or is this too reduced? :)
Reply
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