Welcome to my account. There is a high probability that the market will go down. With a strong model formation. Double button. He also made the area retest twice. The price fails to breach the broken resistance 3.900. I think the price will be negative over time. And we see its price is 3500. In the first stage
As we can see on chart long term dynamic trend line broke and after a short correction on US10Y, we should be ready to bull run up to 5% and that is a top range of long time coverage for US10Y, Hope not to see more up and I think we will start another range time box as shown. Boxes 1 and 2; some how have same time range but most of time the chart fluctuated in...
US10Y / US02Y Spread Around Historically Lows I have presented the analysis of the US10Y/US02Y spread as clearly as I can - and I hope that the chart is self-explanatory! I, too, now assume that there will be a recession in the USA - at least two neagtive gdp annual grwoth rates. In a stagflation we are since july 2021 yet (higher monthly inflation rate as the...
WEEKLY (W1) Following the breakout which occured a couple of weeks ago, we can identify a sideways/up consolidation price action. Indeed, a natural pullback took place which has been rejected by the former downtrend line resistance which became now the new support area (currently around 1.67 %) and slightly below the Tenkan-Sen (@ 1.7080 %) which should be seen...
There are two channels in a row on the chart. One of them is the Fibonacci Channels, while the horizontal ones are the Fibonacci Retracement. The overlapping point of these two channels is 1.93% and we predict that we will reach this point in a short time. Of course, we don't say this just by looking at the lines on the graph. With the latest incentive...
If the US10Y does not intervene, danger bells will begin to ring for the stock markets.
After the initial dropoff, there has been a rebound, with sequentially smaller-amplitude bounces going forward in a wedge pattern, suggesting markets are rightfully optimistic, or lulled into a false sense of hope, about stemming widespread contagion :) US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield US10Y 1.5925 14 Feb '20 17:45
Markets are focused on three topics this week: (i) The 4Q 2019 Earnings season, (ii) coronavirus spillover concerns and (iii) Sanders performance in Caucuses. In US Yields the picture is crystal clear on the Long-term chart, for those following the 1.50% support level we are tracking on the daily you will note where the strength in defence comes from in the medium...
A timely update to the 10yr US Bond Yields chart as we enter into NFP territory. I am still expecting to see further upside with a strong bid in 1H20. Targeting the 38.2% retracement which coincides with the cluster of macro stops makes sense. We come up against the last case in variation for the move, erroneously described as a surrender. To put simply...
A rather quick update here as markets find a floor rate differentials as widely anticipated. It is no surprises for those following the chart previously: For the technicals, those with a background in waves will know this is a textbook example of an ABC correction after a 5 wave sequence; Things are a lot clearer in the FX board as we begin the flows in...
A timely update to the US10Y Yield chart as we breakout with November highs in scope. We will not be covering US fundamentals here today and instead will focus on key technicals in play. For the flows in our map for today and the rest of 2019 we have the key levels in play (highly recommend adding all to charts): Steel Support => 1.65 Strong Support =>...
A very interesting chart today looking at a Generic US 10Y Yield curve in comparison with Banks vs Utilities ... despite the rising correlation Utilities continue to look expensive and risks are elevated relative to banks. This chart is showing the correlation or asset classes to US10Y moves. The pattern is consistent across the board for Banks which look...
Here a very technical chart with lots of magical trend lines, very clean and easy to follow; a break above the descending trendline to the topside @ 1.85 will negate the long-term downtrend that has been in place. It will expose the September highs at 1.907 and 1.937 respectively. Price will lead sentiment and therefore a break to the topside will imply a round...
With Yields miles ahead of the moves lately we are approaching a major breakout in US banks, a relative breakout here of the downtrend will be significant going into year-end. BKX breaking out will be quite a bullish set-up for the overall market: The major top in USD will help a lot here as we enter into the next chapter in the economic cycle... highly...
As we enter into the final Q, a good time to update the US10Y chart. Those following the previous updates are well aware that we have been tracking the entire leg down: We got the zigzag at the lows as widely anticipated and with the technicals are starting to point higher I look for any signs of a base forming. While my bias is for lower global yields it is...
Here we go for Jackson … Fed policy is what matters this weekend and in my books markets are headed for a bearish surprise. The inverted curve is going to create a USD shortage and keep USD higher which will undermine risk assets. Fed funds are now pricing almost 100 bps of cuts by Sept 2020, though Fed talking heads are saying there is no urgency to move again....
Here we are tracking the soft floor coming in Yields once more. We have been in perfect sync with the previous legs down ahead of the Fed cut fact, now it is time once more to trade the expectation of another 25bp cut, this time in September with Trump and markets trying to force the Powell hand again. The topside of the channel will attract a lot of buying...