SPX vs Inflation is a chart I explained in the following idea. While this chart showed incredible golden-ratio behavior, there are some periods which stand out. The smooth dance of the ratio throughout the last 100 years, has some quirks (the red ellipses). These periods are not random, they all feature a bubble behavior. It is clear as day that in 1996 the...
Ah the beauty of Fibonacci... when after a painful recession for equities, we reach the golden ratio alive and well. The satisfaction!!! Now we can go all-in equities! Perhaps you are one of the lucky ones who bought the October bottom, then congrats to you! How much was your profit really? After all, this was a peculiar year... Yields massively increasing,...
Oil is strictly tied to dollar price (petrodollar). World investors/consumers are under tremendous pressure, with absolute oil price exploding, coupled with an explosive dollar. They have to pay the cost for both... US investors enjoy a very competitive oil price (compared to treasuries). This year an investment in USOIL was very negatively performing compared...
Will inflation get under control? This is a question that spins on my mind. This chart clears the picture. On the top of the equation we have "long-term inflation", calculated by GOLD*PPIACO On the bottom we have the true equity value, calculated by modified-yields*SPX modified-yields = US10Y+1+1/US10Y. It follows the standard US10Y chart. This chart tells us...
Spoiler alert, there is a lot. Inspired by a fellow trader, link to his idea. He is the reason I took the stock market seriously. An easy-to-explain chart. As NoOneWhoIsSomeone explained better, FEDFUNDS increases when an economy is strong. Therefore it can be a modificator for prices. The FED increases the rate when it smells money, and money smells when...
An updated view Pattern taken from reverse symmetry. Elliott Waves Stochastic RSI Oscillators The 12 Month oscillator pushes everything upwards. Since the 3M oscillator is at it's top, we expect a short drop until mid 2023. It will be short because of the effect of the 1M oscillator as well as the 12M one. Oscillators tell us that it is probable for price...
Maybe this is a massive money supply flag. We have support on the ribbon. Stochastic RSI confirms it. I don't know if this even makes sense, since CURRCIR is a subset of M2SL. On the other hand, who would have thought that in 1990s currency in circulation would increase by 50% in less than a decade. Or is there a ceiling prohibiting more increase? Also look at...
Back in the 80s, we thought that by 2020 we would have an automated oven and flying cars. All we got is a money printer, and we liked it. We played with it a lot. And this year for Christmas, who wouldn't like some more printer ammo? Since high inflation cannot ensure social stability, we have only one option. Lower inflation. That is the motto of the FED, the...
Looking back over the last year (22'), as the saying goes "hindsight is 20-20". That said, here's the recap on the 22' market cycle against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hiking Cycle (one of the fastest on record) — while at the same time, we (investors) are all asking "What's next for 23'?" TOP SECTION DXY - Dollar Index...
Oh yeah, inflation... Just how much though??? One of the main "benefactors" for inflation is money supply. Printing money fast and not managing it to create growth, is bad... unsurprisingly. For the last 2 years, an astronomical amount of money was printed. But have we seen it's effect? To figure out these HOT questions, we use charts. Opinions don't do us any...
Omg, is it really happening, with one month delay? For details please see idea published on 24th of September last.
Us inflation possible growth model based on 5:0 pattern and normal fractal model.
It is like 1969, only exactly the same. (A quote Ashens would say) Sticky inflation begins Gold stagnating Cheap oil, and then not that cheap Space exploration And the following years after 1969, look what happened to: Inflation: Remained for 10 years Gold: After a disappointing drop in 1969-1970, it exploded 19x until 1979. Oil: Increased 10x until 1980 Space:...
The Fed money tightening policies are using interest-rates as a lever to fix a balance sheet problem. Higher rates feed right back into the CPI, initiating the doom loop. After the financial crisis of 2008, The Fed employed a policy action to reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 0-0.25% for seven-(7) years, during which time the CPI fell. Post-pandemic...
Every time DXY crosses up inflation line ( ECONOMICS:USIRYY ), it caused big dump on Bitcoin (the momentum is after the announcement of the inflation , see dates in graphic). In October 2020 (crossing happened on nov 12th), this failed because it happened below 50% level which is less significant. Next announcement of the inflation will be on October 13th, hold...
As any true trader knows, the inflation rate DID NOT GO UP 8.3%. That is what some retail news outlets claimed "year-over-year," which is plain misinformation. The retail news was designed to trigger a panic dump among the less informed last week. FACT: The rise in inflation started in late 2020, not this year. FACT: The rise in 2021 went to 7%. But the news...
#USIRYY All eyes on US inflation Rate (9.10) 🧐 Long Story short Expectation is 8.7% 🐻 - if new CPI data is above 9.4 then Market will Crash. 🐮 - if Remain between 9.1-9.4 then Market will be Stable and can Pump as well. 🐮🐮 - if below 9.1 then Crypto Market will Pump Hard.
I was just wandering between charts and found USIRYY (US inflation) to respect Fib numbers geometrical. I'm not going into details about sub-waves and where it's going but my personal opinion is that the inflation is here to stay for months and it can stay at the current levels until 2027