By 2029 United Steel will most likely be above $100/share
Statistically Speaking, US STEEL is being given away @ these $$$
Pictured here is an INDA (66/29) short strangle in the June cycle set up around the 25 delta strikes. Paying 1.00 at the mid, it has break evens of 32.00/39.00, a buying power effect of 5.65, and delta/theta metrics of .68/1.98. Unfortunately, it doesn't have the tightest markets, so expect a little price discovery should you want to get a fill. On the...
$X US Steel Oversold at Support Expecting a bounce near term - target $19-$20 area by early May Note: Informational, not investment advice.
... for a .49/contract credit. Metrics: Max Profit: $49 Buying Power Effect: ~$202/contract Break Even/Cost Basis If Assigned: $18.51/share Delta: 15.96 Theta: .74 Notes: Here, I'm just looking to deploy some buying power in one of the few underlyings with fairly decent implied volatility (42.4%) at a high probability of profit strike (the 16). I'm fine with...
EARNINGS: The only underlying that interests me for an earnings announcement-related volatility contraction play this coming week is TWTR (62/67). Preliminary Setups: March 15th 28/38 Short Strangle (Pictured): 1.73 credit (.87 at 50% max), break evens at 26.27/39.73, -8.98 delta, 4.78 theta. March 15th 25/28/38/41 Iron Condor: 1.01 credit (.50 at 50% max),...
We've got a bevvy of earnings announcements on tap: AMD: Tuesday After Close AAPL: Tuesday After Close BABA: Wednesday Before Open FB: Wednesday After Close TSLA: Wednesday After Close X: Wednesday After Close AMZN: Thursday After Close Out of these, AMD (73/74), TSLA (70/73), and X (79/58) have the best metrics for volatility contraction plays. ...
I like CLF here with an AB=CD target of 9.70 ish......
... for a 3.09/contract debit. Metrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect on Setup: $309 Max Profit on Setup: $141 Break Even on Setup: 21.09 vs. 20.71 spot Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 68.7 Delta: 37.91 Theta: .61 Notes: The front month short doesn't pay for all of the extrinsic in the back month long (which is generally why you want your break even to be at...
Metrics: Max Profit on Setup: $108 Max Loss/Buying Power Effect on Setup: $292 Break Even vs. Spot: 17.92 vs. 18.25 Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 73% Delta: 30.35 Theta: .82 Notes: With high implied volatility rank/30-day implied (82/67) and fairly long-term weakness, putting on some bullish assumption here without hanging a ton of buying power out there if...
Looking at what's left of the trading week post-Labor Day ... . AVGO (announcing earnings on Thursday after market close) is the only fairly liquid underlying that interests me for an earnings-related volatility contraction play (rank 57/30-day 37). The 63% probability of profit Sept 21st 200/205/235/240 iron condor pictured here is preliminarily going for 1.65...
The only volatility contraction earnings play I'm looking at for this coming week is in Macy's, which announces earnings on Wednesday before market open, since it has the implied volatility rank and 30-day metrics I'm looking for (76/56). Here are some Macy's preliminary setups, with the short strangles set up around the 20 delta strikes: August 17th 36/44 short...
An interesting earnings announcement docket ahead this week: BIDU (rank 57/implied 39) announces Tuesday after market close; AAPL (rank 54/implied 26), Tuesday after market; TSLA (rank 87/implied 70), Wednesday after market; and X (rank 61/implied 53), Wednesday after market. Out of these, TSLA has the kind of volatility metrics I'm looking for in an earnings...
With the vast majority of options-liquid earnings plays in the rear view mirror, premium selling becomes a search for just plain Jane high implied volatility underlyings. This week, TSLA, RIG, X round out out the top implied volatility single names; EWZ, the exchange-traded fund top implied volatility play. Here are some possible nondirectional setups, which are...
With most of the earnings heavy hitters in the rear view mirror, there isn't much to trade this week of quality from an earnings announcement volatility contraction standpoint, with DIS being the standout name. DIS announces on Tuesday after market close with a 30-day implied volatility of 25%, which is in the upper half of its 52-week range. The May 18th 96/97...
$X US Steel - Confirmed head & shoulders . Downside to mid-20s in the near term.