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Pacific Gas & Electric Price Prediction for Second Half of 2021***THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. DO YOU OWN RESEARCH AND FORM YOUR OWN CONCLUSIONS.*** Historical Preface: Having just come off an update on policy from a (un-surprisingly) hawkish federal reserve, it's been said that rates are unlikely to rise precipitously until 2023. The news of unlikely tapering sent many of the utilities stocks into a sharp short-term decline. I do predict these severe declines to be short term and utilities ($PCG included) will soon return to their established trends. For PG&E, the established trend is bearish. Prediction: My prediction for the remainder of the summer is the stock will likely struggle downward until it finds strong support around $9.00-$9.05 (see trended chart below). This downward pressure is a result of investors seeking ever higher returns in more speculative sectors throughout the summer. The less "sexy" sectors (Energy and Utilities) will likely languish until Fall. I also think the perception of Utilities has suffered since PG&E's and ERCOT's most recent gaffs; deserved or otherwise. ESG minded investors are avoiding these equities on a principled basis rather than financial. I anticipate this trend to eventually fade. I will continue to add to my position at the $9.25-$9.30. Once a new strong support level is found I expect a quick, multi-week bull run to $15.00 during the last part of the year. I don't foresee prices exceeding $20.00 in 2021. Pervasive Risks: The location of PG&E's service area remains its biggest and most obvious risk. Most will cite the indebtedness as PG&E's largest negative mark but I don't consider this the case since the debt structure is understood and the re-payment plan is well defined. PG&E's location in California's most arid region will dominate the future risk of investing with this company. Obviously, there's little PG&E can do to rectify the issues introduced within its service area. These same challenges would be faced by any utility who exists in this location and the service outcomes would likely be the same. But, the companies leaders are taking steps to better alleviate concerns of future wildfire liabilities. Future Confidence: I like that PG&E understands its locational challenges and is working to mitigate them. Though I work in the Electrical utility industry, I don't know how the problems posed can be easily or cheaply addressed beyond better maintenance programs. PG&E seems to understand their position on that front is fragile and they need help finding other ways to meet their challenges; even if they don't understand what those challenges precisely are or how to mitigate them. This makes the close work they're doing with Palantir a very bullish indicator of PG&E's future success. Final Remarks: I remain very bullish in the long term.
NYSE:PCGLong
by forever_green
Southern Company Stock Analysis (SO)Basic Facts: Southern Company is itself a holding organization who owns all of the Common Stock for Alabama Power, Georgia Power, Mississippi Power, and Southern Gas; all of which are publically operating utilities. Southern’s other holdings include Natural Gas Distribution, Marketing, Wholesale services, and pipeline investments. Growth Factors: The total customers served under Southern’s (SO) area are about 4.5 million. This looks to be one of the largest areas of growth for the next decade. The recent pandemic has forced many people to re-evaluate what they want out of life. Contemplation has resulted in a mass exodus from northern states to southern states (see census data) as many freedom sensitive and financially cognizant individuals seek more accommodative socio-economic environments. I see this trend to continue as COVID transforms from a persistent threat to a source of past-trauma and driver of personal reflection. The trend of “realization” will, in all likelihood, continue and grow to a nexus in the next couple years. This may well increase Southern’s customer base by an order of magnitude over the next decade. The number of customers will grow until economic pressures force northern and liberal states to seek conformity with their more free counterparts. I think these pressures will need to persist for ten years before changes in these sates become apparent enough to soften demand for family and individual relocation. Demand for Green Energy isn’t subsiding. Common notions of “green” energy typically involve: Solar, wind, and natural gas. Southern has a large presence in the Natural Gas industry along with very accommodative infrastructure and buy-back policies for solar generation. Political environment and other entities with SO’s area (Transmission entities, EMC’s, and Power Co-ops) are also accommodative to Solar Generation through buy-backs and Green Energy purchasing programs. These will bode well against the persistent narrative in favor of green energy. SO’s interest in the Vogtle Units 3 and 4 also paints a very good picture for the future of net-zero carbon emitting generation. Commonly repeated negativity surrounding the numerous cost over-runs and delays surrounding construction of the Units are, in my opinion, vastly over-stated. The new Vogtle Units are state-of-the-art (new cooling technology and new style Westinghouse alternator). Most of what’s being done at Vogtle has never been done before in scope, scale, or timeline. The bankruptcy of Westinghouse (the manufacturer of the alternator used for Units 3 & 4) also stretched expected completion date. Considering these pressures, miscalculations in costs and timelines are to be expected. However, I believe most investors have priced in delays within the present stock’s price (~$61.00 per share). I treat the inclusion of expanding Nuclear generation in my bullish assessment of Southern’s stock because, as the amount of traditional green energy (Solar and Wind) increases as a percentage of effective generation, it will become painfully clear the system becomes more fragile in exponential proportion to the amount of “green” generation expressed. Protecting the system against itself when this proportion of expressed green generation is large remains an evolving science. Many substations are adding high-voltage reactors to provide inertial frames for fault detecting relays but this will likely not be enough to appropriately protect the electric system. This will make classic rotating machines (steam turbines) necessary to provide base-generation and system stability (this is not opinion, but fact). Nuclear power is also cheaper to generate though maintenance costs can be substantive (there are few things more complex than steam turbines). This will create an economic pressure for Southern to generate more power through their nuclear units as other utilities looking to buy power off the wholesale markets demand the cheaper energy (this is my opinion). Monetary Environment: In the age of Central Bank debt jubilation it’s always appropriate to consider the actions of the Federal Reserve into one’s evaluation of American equities. This is no different for my evaluation of Southern Company. The Fed has provided markets with liquidity ad nauseam. This was true even before the repo crisis of summer 2019 and the liquidity crisis of March 2020. Looking at the chart, one can see the precipitous rise of SO’s stock price throughout 2019 as the Effective Federal Funds Rate (in purple) decreased rapidly in the aftermath of the “taper tantrum” in 2018. As the Fed has driven down the effective interest rate and costs of capital, investors can expect more capital appreciation for each dollar invested into financial markets. This has resulted in speculative waves in tech and other growth sectors which themselves have bred things like “meme stocks” and ESG investors. Narrative and “hopium” have become more significant than cash flow and asset valuations. This fact makes my present valuation of most equities included within the S&P remarkably over-bought and “bubbly” (death-gaze on TSLA). Over time, debt can never remain solvent at the present levels. The Fed will have to taper eventually and, once it does, capital will fly at super-sonic speeds away from growth investments (Amazon, Apple, Tesla, NVidia, and the tech industry as a whole) to value investments, like SO. This will not necessarily result in a rise in the stock’s price but those who are already positioned in value stocks once the Fed tapers will sleep easily. Stock Price: I expect the utility sector to languish through the summer as monetary conditions will remain accommodating throughout the rest of 2021. I don’t expect a rise of the stock price above $67.00 throughout the summer with no breakout above $70.00 for 2021. The short-term trend of SO is bearish with the equity in a noticeable downtrend. However, SO is approaching the lower bound of a regression trend with a buy price of $60.50. A longer-term regression trend shows a bullish trend with the present price approaching the lower bound of that trend as well. SO will need to hold $60.00 as a resistance. If this resistance fails the next price target would be $57.35. My longerm (3-10 years) valuations is: BULLISH
NYSE:SOLong
by forever_green
5
Sector early indicator? Not usually: Health, Utilities & TransptThe Healthcare sector, Utilities sector, and Transportation sector - here represented by the S&P Health Care Index (S5HLTH, in blue), Dow Jones Utility Average ( DJU, in purple), and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DTX, in orange) - do not usually act as early indicators against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... except perhaps for DJU falling from a peak in Jan 2015 (DTX a little earlier in Dec 2014), and DJU again in Dec 2017. (Around the turn of the century, DTX also peaked fairly early - in 1998.)
DJ:DJI
by dartde
Is it time for a utilities play?Defensives have been outperforming the S&P 500 since March. If you believe the outperformance will continue, then now might be the time to buy, as they are approaching the support line. I'm particularly watching utilities. In addition to being a classic defensive sector, utilities also have "growth" potential. They had a period of strong outperformance a couple years ago during the renewables boom. Presently they look cheap compared to other sectors. The equal-weight utilities to equal-weight S&P 500 ratio has made a large bullish divergence and is currently testing a support level. Might it make a double bottom here? I particularly like NRG Energy, a Texas utility with a diversified basket of power generation capabilities, including fossil fuels and renewables. NRG is looking like it will make a breakout attempt soon: It has a forward P/E of 6, a forward P/S under .5, and a P/FCF under 11. Dividend yield is over 4%. Open interest is bullish, and upside to the average analyst price target is 36%. This bad boy could seriously rip if utilities return to strength. Utilities move somewhat in sympathy with oil prices, and oil prices are breaking out. That could prove to be a catalyst for this sector.
AMEX:RSPULong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
14
ANKR Moon Potential The potential of the coin is amazing. We have a weekly stoch RSI cross forming. Weekly stoch RSI is a very powerful signal. ANKR current statistics - Ranked #97 - Already on Coinbase & Binance - Ankr marketcap is 750 Million - 6,996,232,711 out of 10,000,000,000 circulating supply Lets compare marketcaps... Vechain is worth $8 Billion Matic is worth $12 Billion Ankr is worth $750 Million Also very similar charts ^ A $1.37 Ankr price would = 9 Billion evaluation A million is $1,000,000 A billion is $1,000,000,000 A Trillion is $1,000,000,000,000 Unique Use Case - Ankr goal is to provide value in the cloud computing industry. Very ambitous. Cloud computing is a growing industry. Google & Amazo. Ankr Team - Comittee of 16 advisors. All have credible backgrounds. I even met one person from the team. Very credible people. This is not a get rich quick coin. This is for a true investor that seeks value in return. This is alternative to coins such as ADA, VET, & XRP that already proven their value in use & price. I believe Ankr has true potential to succeed and be a top #25 coin. With such a microcap. This coin weilds very violatile adjustments. This can happen very quick. Especially now since it is listed on Coinbase. Moon city is the goal. Diamond hands.
COINBASE:ANKRUSDLong
by AthenticWhale1
The takeover bid at 10€ was underestimating its real valueMint is a growth smallcap coming from lowcost mobile plans to green energy utility. Its client acquisition is booming. A takeover bid procedure took place at 10€. From partial results, about 30 to 40% of small investors are not participating, making Mercure Énergie the controlling shareholder but leaving a good floating to be re-evaluated on stock exchange or maybe a more generous next offer. Milestone: February 16 AMF will be releasing the final results of the takeover bid. Expect a good pump at this moment.
ALong
by Vitto_LaG