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UVXY

S&P 500 last week November 2016Daily Chart We are still on track and have not yet made a micro wave 4 correction for this larger wave 5. This is the last week before the Italy vote. It appears that we will move up until maybe Friday. The vote is on Sunday the 4th so we should see a day or two drop starting Monday maybe down to the 2206 range. Then we could see another sharp move up like what happened after Brexit but of course not as huge as Brexit. If this plays out the way I am envisioning it, then I think we could see a hard push up to 2250 - 2280. There should be a great shorting opportunity for this rate hike. That's my take on how this is going to work out. The black line marked with a red arrow is an exact measurement of the December 2015 drop including the time frame when it bottomed. This does not mean that we will follow this exactly but is useful for reference. And as you can see, depending on how high we go, the 61% retracement is right there at the long term trend line.
TVC:SPX
by SalN
S&P 500 Nov 11Wow what a push. We completed micro wave 1 of the larger wave 5. We are consolidating in micro wave 2. Not sure where that will stop but it looks like it wants to walk along the top of that blue wedge. Then a real big push up for micro wave 3 should occur next. And by the looks of Wave 1, I would say it should hit the top of that black upper trend line. That little red line at about 2280, is a 100% gain of the larger wave 3. Not sure if we hit that or start a rounding top for micro wave 5 just like 3 and 1 did earlier in the year. But who cares. This sucker is flying and if this keeps up, which it looks like it will, we will have that rate hike. And with a rate hike from these heights, the gains on the Vix should be enormous. Can't wait. If we do make it to that 2280 mark, look at the 61% Fib retracement for a correction. Its right near that bottom of that long term uptrend line. The point is, big money is ahead. Be ready for the drop. AND IT'S NOT A STOCK MARKET CRASH!!!! We will take off from after February and fly to the moon or at least much higher similarly to what happened in early 2016. We should reach 3000 by sometime in 2020. That's right! I said it. I don't care what you are hearing from the TV dumb asses. This ship will not go down until Europe and Japan go first. WE ARE THE CABOOSE! Always have been, always will be. And while Europe and then Japan fall apart, their money will find a safe haven in the US markets for a short while. Until its time for our Ginormous Super Hyper HOLY CRAP Bubble to burst. We should start to see perhaps a rounding top in the year 2020. And then it will be time for the cycles (Plural) to bring down the house. If you want to know how far down, Just draw a trend line from the bottom of the 2001 crash, then the bottom of the 2009 crash and extend it to about 2022. Then you will know just how bad its going to be. Personally, I am selling my house in the year 2020. No Joke. I'll by a mansion in 2022-2023 for a Yuge discount. But I am getting ahead of myself. Lets just focus on December 15th - 16th. Good Luck
TVC:SPXLong
by SalN
1
S&P 500 and possible VIX play4 hour chart for S&P 500 So as promised, here is my take on the S&P 500 and where I see things moving in the next two months. I feel very confident that we have just completed the 4th corrective wave of this 5 wave impulse. As you can see, this 4th wave is shallow and complicated. And the 2nd wave (Brexit) is deep and cleaner. So all that is left is the 5th wave. I placed OI options price targets in the chart. I also measured what 50% and 75% gain of the 3rd wave would take us as far as the 5th wave is concerned. For the 50% growth price target, we would reach 2215-2216. For the 75% growth price target, we would reach 2240. However, price action will dictate the final outcome. I also measured the amount of time in days and bars for wave 3. So what my analysis is pointing to, and what I am leaning towards, is a micro 5 wave growth, topping around the 2215 range (red line). I just don’t think we go much higher because it seems too steep for those OI price targets. Either way, it appears that we will make all time highs. (blue line signifies the last high) ATH’s will help solidify the Feds decision to raise rates as they would not raise rates if the market showed weakness like it has this last couple weeks. It appears we top around the end of November and start a steep ABC correction, with C being the big one that would coincide with the Interest Rate hike. Unless we get a black swan event that triggers this fall (doubtful) I am pretty sure they raise rates in December. So I will be playing the VIX at the end of November. If anything changes then I will update this post. And just to touch on Yellens latest comments. Of course she and others are going to start to be Dovish. They want the market to go up so they can raise rates. Talking like she is uncertain is BS and helps kick start this 5th wave. So there it is, short and sweet. Hope you like it and hope it is helpful.
TVC:SPXLong
by SalN
7
Trading against the holy grailI see an epic opportunity arising in VIX related products like UVXY and TVIX and would like to share my opinion on this. As most are aware, articles are popping up left and right saying that shorting the UVXY is a 100% risk-free long term investment . Some go further and label the VIX short as the trade of the decade. Moreover there are figures actually showing that funds are holding huge net short positions as of now . The icing on the cake is provided by the crowd who is finally attracted by the „cheap“ price tag provided by the intrinsic decay of he aforementioned VIX products. People do the math and come up with the conclusion that shorting any UVXY pop WILL make them money eventually. This is it ladies and gentleman the 100% sure fire holy grail type of trade we have been looking for. Even the most experienced fund managers can’t believe that such an instrument exist. It is finally here to make us all a fortune in the long run. Some funds actually state that they add to their net UVXY short on every 3% UVXY price advance putting them in a better risk/reward position. This is brillant stuff! However what happens if we have a real market decline like in 2008? UVXY never saw such a market enviroment as it is a QE era instrument. UVXY never spike much more than 500% but that doesn’t mean it is not capable of doing so. Central banks might come up with another round of artifical market life support and the crowd might give it a clever name like...QE4. But what if the central banks really run out of ammo or the fourth iteration doesn‘t work like the others? I agree with the opinion of many that this market is a little bit too much FED dependent right now. In fact bond market bulls are arguably in the process of seeing a change in character after 35 years of advances . And such a change in character in such an important trading instruments is meaningful stuff. Of course everything is possible and all that talk about market crash here and bubble burst there could also be a nice breeding ground for a real bull market thus leaving this 16 year secular bear market behind. Nobody knows! Whats so scary is he fact the even the latter scenario doesn’t rule out a 1000% short term UVXY spike. Shorting UVXY as proposed by these guys is like trading an automated martingale forex trading system. You will make many many small profits but you can go belly up in an instant. Still the so called pros see it as a 100% risk free investment. This actually doesn’t need many more words hence I make it short. I believe that the UVXY can just go up so much that even the toughest shorts are forced to cover. There is no such thing as a 100% sure investment. And going long UVXY could provide the opportunity of a lifetime for quick profits. And last Friday with the broad declines across the board could have been just the beginning. Hence the real trade oft he decade in my opinion will most likely be going long UVXY hence fooling the hedge funds and the crowd... as usual. And I am not afraid to take that trade. www.focusedstocktrader.com www.zerohedge.com blogs.barrons.com www.hedgopia.com www.wsj.com www.marketwatch.com
CBOE:UVXYLong
by thweistrading
5
UVXY - Long from 20.15 to 38.33After a huge decline UVXY seems getting some ground at present level, which is a historical strong support zone for VIX. Nicely scooping upward & moneyflow is getting some strength. We are looking for a log from here for long time and our target is 38.33 On the option side we are looking for Mar2017 25 call You can check our revaluation on UVXY in the trading room/ Executive summery link here- www.youtube.com Time Span: 26:20" Trade Status: Entry Criteria met Aug 10th
CBOE:UVXYLong
by AcornWealthCorp
1
VIXM long when RSI approaching 50In my prior VIX ideas, I analyzed VIX value trends. I noted that the mid-term VIX etfs/etns (VIXM and VXZ) tended to trend downwards over time and also lagged behind VIX value movements. After then analyzing VIXM, I noted these observations can be seen quantitatively in the RSI. Note that the VIXM is usually declining with a negative RSI. Successful VIXM long trades appear to occur as the RSI trends up and crosses 50. Volumes are usually high as well. While I opened long positions in VIXM and UVXY, that was premature and these will not do well short term. Certainly a cost averaging approach can work but VIXM reacts slowly. I will not buy more VIXM until the RSI is trending up towards 50 with increasing volumes. Since these low VIX episodes occur during strong bull markets, drops in the S&P 500 (and rising VIX) are leading indicators for going long in VIXM.
CBOE:VIXMLong
by haug01