Market is extremely oversold & fear at a 2 year high as indicated by the VIX. The opportune moment o have shorted this wave has past and we could face a potential technical bounce while the S&P 500 holds above 1851 level. Caution adding into existing shorts or establishing a new one here.
As you can see the "First sign of deep shit trouble" indicator is moving into the alarming area. The chart is only marginally changed from the first one (link below). But the VIX now NOT long anymore, and not yet short. Neutral with potential, I would say.
I would prefer the SPY (S&P 500) to test 190.55, however, the 1 month VIX is trading above the 3 month VIX, S&P 500 stocks above 50-day & 200-day MA show extreme lows and having capitulation volume yesterday...I am taking a long position
As we have foreseen in the previous studies, the market is acknowledging the end of FED's QE3 program. There is still cheap money in the market i.e low interest rate, but as we have foreseen, ECB's TLTRO and ABS is not profiting to US market contrary to QE3 which has benefited to everybody including the European market. The correction process before SPX starts to...
With the end of FED's QE3, market are gaining more and more volatility. This does not mean that market will crash, but there will be more heavy movement, and the swing frequency will be bigger. FED's QE was inhibiting the market, that is why at the highest level of QE3, VIX was as low as 10... There is also more uncertainties in the market, baring in mind the...
Since the high put in place on, September 19th, in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) the markets have been declining steadily. This move lower was not much of a surprise to those in the know; many signs where alerting of this decline. For example, the much anticipated and over hyped IPO of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA). In history, IPOs of similar...
Volatility is increasing and it is good for swing traders. It is also good to see that the market is coming back to a normal stance, where Central banks are less intervening, or that there intervention is not effective anymore, because at the end of the day, for those who believe like me in liberal economy, you should really do let buyers and sellers fixing the...
I've discussed VIX and VXX before. A base seems to be in. As long as the blue trend line holds, there is no reason not to think this will go higher. Perfect spot to go long. The downside is so minimum.
VIX (VXX above) has been bottoming forming a slight (very slight) up trend. Chance to make 12% gain on a 50% retrace of the previous high.. Downside risk 2% get out if the dark blue trend line breaks. MACD crossing
On a purely chartist approach, VIX is about the make a double bottom, which is that case would make 17.35 the neck line and after a pull back over 17.35 toward 20+ This has to be confirmed of course. On the other hand, with the tappering the end of FED's QE3, there may much more volatility in the market because traders will be on there own..... Let's wait and see
VIX is turning its trend to a long position. The upside of VIX is not a technical correction but rather an initial sign of a trend on the upside. Generaly when DOWI is UP VIX is down and when VIX is up DOWI is down. whereas when both of them are on the upside, it is a clear sign of a reversal. Therefore one can estimate that DOWI will go on the upside first...
The question one has to answer is what will fuel the market? a European QE? Good economic datas? Unemployment rate falling down? We are almost in a clear double top formation with neckline at 16345. A correction may be very much healthy for the index. There is no interest rate increase for FED before 1Q15 for sure apparently, which means that the risk of...
The Stock Exchanges are rather overperforming. The economic datas are not that good, but the market is expecting ECB President Draghi to release fresh money in the market. But there may be a reason to release the money in the market and thus this would only be possible when the market go to a severe correction otherwise, tax payer would not understand the reason...
When trading Indexes, it is always good to have a look on the volatility index and with Ichimoku, it is clear that the upside movement is very near. The indicators such as STOCH or RSI show that we are either at oversold level like STOCH or about to reach it with RSI. The Kumo Cloud shows a clear future turn in the trend. It means that when VIX is up, indexes...
Since 2009 its been hard for bears to short this market. We don't expect markets to crash either but normal correction is a sign of healthy markets. We expect markets to correct itself and then to new highs.