Wheat has broken it's downward channel and retested it successfully. Next, it needs to get above and hold 850 on this futures chart for the real running to begin. We should not see 750 again on this chart. Long term hold for me.
A Monday update with all the usual suspects. Liking SP500 for a large bounce, Weat is tasty, OIL to 104 looks good, BONDS sucking wind, GOLD, nice reversal, BTC expecting upside but maybe one more down (along with markets). In general I expect the week to be positive. Also, GEO is taking off. Good luck!
OK, the last video for the week after the markets got murdered today. Unfortunately I was being optimistic and got caught in a loss - it happens. Other trades are looking good - OIL, BONDS, WEAT especially. BTC looks like it's ready to drop, Gold may too. Both being pressured by the US Dollar. The Dollar rally will continue to make headlines. OK have a great...
Jackson hole this week may be interpreted as dovish - a sell down today may set up a C leg tomorrow for Powell's speech. Breaking below 4100 and we've got a better short signal on the market. Oil continues it's struggle with 95, no decision yet. Bonds need to reverse soon. Weat looking good but no breakout confirmed just yet. GOld, looking better and could get up...
I know, it's the grandpa trade, but honestly this is looking stunning for a steady move up to at least all time highs (50% move) and probably higher, my guess is into the 20's. Best to wait for 8.50 to be taken and then buy dips. Check out the other charts below for a longer term view.
Might be a short covering day. Everyone is convinced the turn has happened, and that may be true - but the RSI signals bother me. OIl looking better, Weat as well, Gold is meh, BTC might get interesting
All in the video. Remember the minutes from FOMC will be released at 2pm today, so expect a whipsaw either way.
All in the video, dip buyers are still in control at the moment. Next resistance point would be around 4360 if they keep rallying it up (quite possible)
A look at the near term targets and some talk about the possibility of a commodity rally - including oil.
All in the video, expecting a bounce today but maybe not new highs, OIL should get to about 94.....
According to the ratio chart we should be close to a reversal here. If we do start rallying again it will take more spy to equal a share of the weat etf. After a long term base like this, the breakout rarely fails although a retest of the breakout is common. As I said before, I think the inflation trade on AG commodities is about to start up again - regardless...
"Nobody is qualified to become a statesman who is entirely ignorant of the problem of wheat." - Socrates And what a problem this can turn out to be! Wheat and other agriculture commodities have been hammered lately, leading many talking heads to say "Inflation has peaked". For the short term, they are probably right. However, what they are not considering is...
Wheat Technicals (September): September wheat futures are on the verge of getting out above the upper end of our pivot pocket, 815. If the Bulls can achieve a close above here, we could see the market make an attempt at last week’s highs, 834-843 ½. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 834-843 ½***, 898 ½-903****,...
all in the video, I especially like the Wheat chart and MJ's for long positions.
Wheat Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 372 futures/options contracts through July 19th. This expands their net short position to 6,816 contracts. Broken down that is 61,465 longs VS 68,281 shorts. Fundamentals: As with the corn market, wheat futures are rallying this morning on concern that the deal to...
Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 25,871 futures/options contracts through July 19th. 24,916 of this was long liquidation, just 955 were new short positions. This shrinks their net long position to 125,303 contracts. Broken down that is 202,400 longs VS 77,097 shorts. Fundamentals: Corn futures had...
Wheat Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 511,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Technicals: Wheat futures are holding their own this morning, relative to the pressure we are seeing in corn and beans. We mentioned in recent Tech Talks...
Wheat Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 185,989 metric tons, well below the 532,898 we saw in the same week last year. The weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent ratings for spring wheat at 71%. 68% of the crop is headed. Winter wheat harvest is 70% complete. Technicals (September): Wheat futures continue to...