X-indicator
NVDA Dec 12 Market Structure and Options. Driven Levels
NVDA 15-Min Market Structure
NVDA has been riding a steady intraday trendline from the morning rebound, but the most recent candles show price slipping underneath that trendline. This shift tells us momentum is slowing, and the market is waiting for a key directional trigger.
Above price, the intraday resistance band near 181.50–182 has rejected multiple times. Until NVDA can claim and hold above that zone, the chart leans neutral-to-slightly-heavy.
Below current levels, the lower trendline (local rising support) interacts with 179.50–180 — a zone that has already acted as a short-term pivot. If this area breaks cleanly, a deeper correction becomes more likely.
Now Look at How Options Positioning (GEX) below That Aligns With the Chart:
Looking at the options landscape, NVDA shows concentrated call-side resistance stacked from 182.5 up toward 187.5–190. These levels often behave like “upper gravity zones” — price may approach them, but if call positioning is dense, dealers tend to hedge in a way that suppresses sharp upside.
This aligns well with the technical rejection seen around 181.50–182. The market had multiple chances to break through but failed, confirming that supply is reinforced by options positioning.
On the downside, the negative GEX region around 177–175 marks where put positioning thickens. These zones often act as stabilization areas during pullbacks because dealer hedging can slow the decline as price approaches them.
This creates a very clean structure:
* Resistance and upside hesitation: 181.5 → 182.5 → 187.5
* Neutral zone: 180–179.5
* Downside absorption: 177 → 175
Technically and options-wise, NVDA sits in a narrow decision range. Breakout above 182.5 could open room toward 185 and possibly 187.5 if momentum builds. Break below 179.5 puts 177 and 175 into play.
Directional Thoughts for Dec 12
* Bullish Case:
NVDA must break above 181.5–182.5 and hold. If achieved, the next push could target 185, with an extension toward 187.5 where another cluster of call resistance sits.
* Bearish Case:
A clean breakdown under 179.5 shifts momentum firmly downward. In that scenario, price may gravitate toward 177 first, then 175 where options positioning suggests downside may slow.
Why This Setup Is Interesting
NVDA’s chart is not moving on pure price action alone — the intraday reactions line up almost perfectly with the major GEX concentrations. When technical structure and options-based levels reinforce each other, markets often behave more predictably because both chart traders and hedging flows are interacting at the same spots.
This makes NVDA one of the cleaner names to watch on Dec 12.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and manage risk according to your individual trading plan.
TSLA Dec 12. Compression at a Key Breakout PointTSLA has been consolidating inside a tight compression structure on the 15-minute timeframe, sitting between a rising support line from the midday recovery and a descending trendline from the earlier rejection. Price is now coiling right at the apex of these two lines, which typically sets up a decisive move once the market opens.
The 447.5–448 zone is the immediate intraday pivot. TSLA paused there at the close, and every small push above it was quickly absorbed. As long as price remains beneath the descending trendline, momentum remains neutral-to-bearish within the consolidation.
Above price, the next major supply sits at 450–452. This level caused a sharp rejection earlier in the session and continues to be the key ceiling that sellers defend. A clean break above 448 followed by a hold above 450 would shift momentum in favor of buyers and allow TSLA to challenge the higher levels inside its previous range.
On the downside, the rising trendline around 445–445.5 is the first support. If TSLA loses this line, the next support zone is 443.5–444. Below that, the breakdown opens space toward the lower demand zone around 437–435 where the buyers last stepped in aggressively.
The options landscape (GEX) matches these same transition levels.
The strongest positive gamma concentration sits between 455–457.5, which aligns with the upper resistance zone. This explains why TSLA repeatedly struggled to extend into 452–455 earlier — price was hitting both chart resistance and hedging resistance at the same time.
Before TSLA can reach those levels again, it must reclaim 448–450. If it does, hedging pressure begins to open up, allowing for a smoother path toward 452 and then 455.
On the downside, negative gamma pockets begin around 437–435. These levels align perfectly with the lower structure targets. If TSLA breaks below 445 and slips into these negative gamma zones, volatility tends to expand instead of being dampened. That is the environment where TSLA can slide quickly into 437–435.
This alignment between price structure and GEX creates a clear plan for Dec 12:
• Holding above 447.5 increases the chance of a breakout attempt toward 450
• Reclaiming 450 is the key signal that buyers have regained control, opening targets at 452–455
• Losing 445 shifts control to sellers and targets 444 → 437–435
• Breaking 435 releases deeper negative gamma and increases the chance of sharper downside movement
TSLA is sitting at the very end of a compression pattern. The next clear move through either 450 or 445 should define the direction for tomorrow’s session.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
Bitcoin is approaching a key level at $94,640CRYPTOCAP:BTC #Bitcoin — Bitcoin is approaching a key level at $94,640.
The correction in the crypto market continues, and it's now starting in the US stock market.
Bitcoin is nearing an important level on the 5-day timeframe—specifically $94,640.
That's where market makers and big players have placed limit buy orders, and I think we'll see some major trader liquidations there too. For those who trade Bitcoin exclusively, I've marked a buy level.
• Buy limit: $94,640.
• Take Profit 1: $130,000
• Take Profit 2: $150,000
The range for wrapping up Bitcoin's cycle is pretty wide, since there are large orders set up there for taking profits. It's tough to pinpoint exactly where the price peak will be—we can only go by the data we can see.
• Coinbase: $130,000, $150,000, and possibly $200,000.
• Binance: $130,000, $150,000, and likewise, it's unlikely but possible to climb to $200,000.
Based on Elliott waves, we're finishing the 5th upward wave, and I figure the peak will hit in 2026, followed by a straight drop.
Indicator for Bitcoin miners:
The cycle indicator on Bitcoin shows the peak hasn't been reached yet:
Samuel Benner's Cycle and the 2026 Peak
The "200-year farmer chart," often referred to as Samuel Benner's Cycle Chart, is a historical economic forecasting tool created in 1875 by Ohio farmer and self-taught economist Samuel Benner.
It's credited with a "90% success rate" in broad sentiment prediction, and modern applications extend to stocks, crypto, and even solar cycles correlating with recessions.
It's best used as a sentiment gauge, not a precise timer.
Implications for 2026
The chart marks 2026 as a "B" year—a cycle peak in "Good Times," signaling high prices and a time to sell before transitioning to panic and hard times from 2026-2032.
This suggests a potential bull run peak, followed by downturn risks amid global debt, inflation, and geopolitics. As of late 2025, we're in a growth phase approaching this apex, per the model's extensions.
Dear friends, it looks like 2026 will mark the end of the growth cycle for Bitcoin and altcoins, so we'll need to find exit points, bail out of the crypto market, stock up on supplies for 3-5 years, and get busy building bunkers 😀🔥.
ADB reaching its bottom?Hi,
Just a note for myself.
Clear bottom structure, long term disembarking.
Profitable company, industry leader.
Estimated revenue and profits -> growing.
EPS growing.
Additionally have clear buy signals and falling triangle breakout.
My expectation is to see 450 in 2026.
BUY!
AG
US30 Technical Breakdown – 12/11/2025📍 US30 Technical Breakdown – 12/11/2025
US30 rejected sharply from the 48,100–48,200 resistance zone, creating a clean wick rejection before pulling back into the mid-range. Despite the selloff, the broader structure remains bullish as long as price holds above 47,700, but momentum has clearly cooled with EMAs flattening out 🔍📉.
📊 Market Behavior:
🔹 Strong rejection from 48,150 — sellers defending heavy supply
🔹 EMAs tightening → momentum slowing after the push
🔹 Price stuck in a wide consolidation between 47,700–48,150
🔹 Bulls still defending higher-timeframe structure
📌 Key Levels:
🔹 Resistance:
48,150 → major supply / rejection zone
48,000 → intraday reaction level
47,930 → current retest zone
🔹 Support:
47,700 → immediate support (key for trend continuation)
47,500 → deeper intraday demand
46,960 → strong structural support if market breaks down
🧠 Bias:
Neutral-to-bullish above 47,700 📈
📈 Break & close above 48,150 → opens path to 48,300 → 48,500
📉 Lose 47,700 → downside opens toward 47,500 → 47,000
💡 Trade Ideas:
🔹 Bullish Setup:
Entry: 48,020 (break + retest above resistance)
TP1: 48,180
TP2: 48,320
SL: 47,820
🔹 Bearish Setup:
Entry: 47,680 (loss of support)
TP1: 47,500
TP2: 47,300
SL: 47,850
🎯 Summary:
US30 rejected the 48,100 resistance zone and is now rotating back toward support. Bulls remain in control on the higher timeframe, but short-term momentum has slowed. Watch 47,700 closely — hold = continuation, break = correction 🔥📊
BTC Dominance
Let's take a brief but informative look at Bitcoin Dominance using the indicator.
We currently have a SHORT signal. Below, I'll outline the key points and the indicator's opinion.
Dominance analysis is key to understanding overall market sentiment: a decline often signals rising interest in altcoins.
To see the full picture and understand where the price might move next, be sure to study the photo with the chart and indicator labels.
Now, on to the structure:
Ликвидность — Подсвечена на графике;
Локально канал — Нисходящий;
Ближайшая полка поддержки — далеко за LL;
Ближайшая полка сопротивления — 59.26%;
Ближайшая зона поддержки (LL) — 58.65%;
Ближайшая зона сопротивления (LH) — 62.25%;
Сигнал памп/дамп — отсутствуют;
Деньги в активе — переходят в отрицательное значение;
Гистограмма и киты — на стороне лонга (слабо);
Локально трендовая — на стороне лонга!
PHOTO WITH INFORMATION FROM THE INDICATOR:
What does this mean? The indicator paints a contradictory but important picture for the overall market. The formal signal is a short (descending channel, negative money). However, the trend and histogram are still holding on to the long, and the nearest significant support (LL at 58.65%) is far below. This creates room for further declines. The absence of pump/dump signals suggests no sharp movements—the decline could be gradual.
We're keeping an eye on the 59.26% and 58.65% levels. Good luck in the markets!
FX Futures and the Fed Decision The foreign exchange futures markets experienced a week dominated by divergent central bank signals, leading to significant price action across major currency pairs. The Euro and the Japanese Yen futures contracts saw sustained upward momentum against the U.S. Dollar. The Euro was buoyed by comments from European Central Bank officials who pushed back against aggressive rate-cut expectations, suggesting Eurozone inflation remains stickier than anticipated. Simultaneously, the Yen futures rallied sharply as the market intensified speculation that the Bank of Japan might be preparing to exit its negative interest rate policy sooner than expected, following strong domestic wage growth data. This dual pressure on the U.S. Dollar, driven by tighter monetary policy outlooks abroad, created a favorable environment for non-Dollar currencies.
Traders today saw the announcement from the Fed where interest rates were cut by 25-basis points, which was anticipated going into the meeting. There was volatility across asset classes outside of the currencies and equity prices were able to finish the day positive, which was led by the Russell trading up near 1.4%. Silver had another strong day as well trading up over 2% to a new all time high price $60.40/oz. Looking at the FedWatch now, there is a 77% probability that in the January meeting, the Fed will keep rates unchanged, but that figure has been volatile over the last few months and traders will be watching markets as we wrap up 2025 to see if this changes.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
MOIL LTD – Weekly AnalysisTrend: Medium-term downtrend but approaching a major reversal zone.
Structure: Price still below falling trendline; momentum weak.
🟢 Strong Demand Zone: 260–285
Major support area.
Multiple historical reversals from this zone.
High probability of a bounce if price retests this region.
🔴 Resistance Levels
380–405: First major resistance. Expect selling here.
520–560: Long-term strong supply zone.
📈 Expected Move
Price likely to retest 260–285 zone.
If demand holds, a bullish reversal towards 380–405 is expected.
Sustained weekly close above 405 can open targets toward 480+.
⚠️ Invalid Scenario
Weekly close below 260 = bearish breakdown and deeper correction risk.
📌 Summary
Stock nearing a high-probability reversal area.
Watch 260–285 for accumulation + bounce setup.
First upside target: 380–405.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This is only for educational purposes, not financial advice. Use stop-loss and manage risk.
MONAD 4H – Coiled Price Action Setting Up for a Breakout Summary:
MONAD has spent the past several sessions consolidating in a tight range after completing a deep pullback from its late-November impulse. Price is now hovering just above the 35 EMA and 205 EMA, showing early signs of reclaiming short-term momentum. With volatility compressing and RSI stabilizing near mid-range, the structure suggests a potential bullish continuation once buyers step back in.
📌 Technical Breakdown
1. Price Compression + EMA Squeeze
Price has been moving sideways between ~0.026–0.028 after a multi-day downtrend.
35 EMA and 205 EMA are nearly converging, often a precursor to expansion after compression.
Price is now repeatedly testing the 35 EMA from above, a constructive shift from the breakdown earlier.
2. RSI Reset and Re-Acceleration Potential
RSI has cooled off and is now stabilizing around 48–50, leaving plenty of room for upside expansion.
Bullish divergence is subtle but forming in the lower timeframe legs of this consolidation.
3. Volume Drying Up (Good for the Pattern)
Declining volume during consolidation suggests supply is weakening.
A volume spike above the range highs (~0.0285–0.029) would be the trigger to confirm buyer aggression.
📈 Breakout Levels to Watch
Bullish Trigger:
🔹 Break and close above 0.0290–0.0300
This would reclaim the structural breakdown region and likely spark momentum traders to pile in.
Upside Target:
🎯 0.0500
This corresponds with:
The measured move from the prior impulse
The next liquidity cluster on the 4H
A psychological round-number magnet
Invalidation:
❌ A close back below 0.0250 would invalidate the breakout structure and likely return MONAD to a deeper corrective phase.
📊 Trade Thesis
MONAD appears to be forming a base of accumulation above key EMAs, with volatility steadily compressing. If bulls can reclaim the 0.03 level with volume, the chart structure supports a move toward 0.05 in the next expansion phase.
Bias: Bullish
Expectation: Breakout to the upside toward $0.05
USDT dominance (USDT.D) USDT dominance (USDT.D) remains elevated and is in a major uptrend, indicating that a significant portion of crypto capital is still parked in stablecoins and in a risk-off position.
Current Structure:
USDT.D is around 5-6%, having broken above a long-term descending trendline that had capped dominance since 2022. This is typically a cautionary signal for risk assets when it remains above that breakout level.
From a technical perspective, USDT.D still appears to be in a large corrective pattern, with significant downside support around 4.2% and 3.8%; losing those levels would confirm a new downtrend in dominance and is usually accompanied by a strong rally in BTC and altcoins.
DYOR | NFA,
XAUUSD sell level to look for!XAUUSD Bear still in contol, at least for shorter term. The daily rejection on Fed's rate cut news has not been strong enough to start a new uptrend, instead, there is lowertimeframe bearish pressure which indicating possible drop to the daily support level.
Here in this 30minutes timeframe there is bearish impulse later with sideway consolidation, price is rejecting 4218.60 level, means, there is second wave of drop is possible as the market left imbalance in the downside direction.
Therefore a sell trade is high probable with SL above the key level of 4218.60
Sell Signal for XAU/USD (GOLD)old/USD)Pair: XAUUSD
Direction: Sell (Short)
Entry: Around current levels (~4,213 - 4,215) or on rejection from the overhead resistance near 4,240
Stop Loss: Above 4,252 (recent high/resistance zone)
Take Profit 1: 4,180
Take Profit 2: 4,135 (near recent support)
Reason: Price is approaching/rejecting strong overhead resistance after a sharp rally. Bearish divergence potential on lower timeframes, with recent red candles showing selling pressure. Risk of pullback in an overextended move.
This is for educational purposes only and NOT financial advice. Trading involves high risk, always do your own research and use proper risk management. #XAUUSD #Gold #SellSignal #Forex #Trading #NotFinancialAdvice
A Bearish SentimentHey guys, Bitcoin on the 4H is setting up what looks like a textbook distribution pattern, and I'm leaning bearish here despite the recent bounce off $87,688.
Price is currently trading at $91,332, sitting in a really uncomfortable middle zone. We're above the short-term moving averages (EMA20 at $90,193 and EMA50 at $90,276), which on the surface looks bullish. But here's the problem: we're still firmly rejected below the EMA200 at $93,179, and that level's been acting as a ceiling for multiple sessions now. Every time we push toward $92,900-$93,200, sellers step in hard. That's your primary supply zone, and it's reinforced by the Bollinger Band upper limit at $92,918.
The indicator stack is where things get really interesting. ADX is screaming at 77.1, that's extreme trend strength, folks. But which trend? The MACD is still bearish at -286.85 versus signal at -284.68, telling us the momentum remains to the downside despite this bounce. More importantly, check out the Stochastic at 96.4, that's massively overbought on the 4H timeframe. When you see Stochastic that extended, you're usually near a local top, not the beginning of a rally.
Here's where it gets spicy: the MFI is sitting at just 22.9. Let that sink in. Price is pushing higher, Stochastic is overbought, but money flow is absolutely anemic. That's classic divergence, price going up on declining participation. Smart money's distributing into strength while retail's buying the breakout. I've seen this movie before, and it doesn't end well for late buyers.
Volume analysis supports the bearish thesis. We're running 30% above average at $26,852, which confirms active participation. But notice the wick structure: 18.4% lower wick shows buyers stepped in aggressively, yet we've got a 5.6% upper wick showing sellers immediately absorbed that pressure. In a healthy uptrend, you want to see small upper wicks and strong closes. This candle structure screams exhaustion.
From a structural perspective, we've formed a higher low (bullish), but we haven't confirmed a higher high yet (neutral to bearish). That makes this a potential bear flag rather than a reversal pattern. The Bollinger Bands are telling a similar story, we're trading just above the middle band at $90,391, but we haven't been able to sustain any momentum toward the upper band. That middle band is now acting as resistance rather than support, which is a bearish flip.
Support levels to watch: immediate support sits at the HMA55 around $90,540, then the EMA20 at $90,193. If those break, we're looking at a quick move back to the lower Bollinger Band at $87,864, which aligns with today's low of $87,688. That zone saw significant buying interest earlier, so it should provide a bounce, but if it fails, we could see acceleration toward the $86,200-$85,500 range where weekly support clusters.
Resistance is clearly defined: $92,918 (Bollinger upper), $93,179 (EMA200), and $93,500 (psychological). Any sustained move above $93,200 would invalidate this bearish setup and suggest we're heading for price discovery toward the $95,000 zone. But with current momentum and indicator readings, I'm assigning less than 30% probability to that scenario.
Trading setup: I'm looking at short entries in the $89,800-$90,500 range if we get a lower high formation on the 1H chart. Stop loss goes above $92,500 to give room for a false breakout. Targets are $87,800 (TP1), $86,200 (TP2), and $85,000 (TP3) for the aggressive traders. Risk/reward on this is roughly 1:2.5 to first target, which is acceptable given the confluence of bearish signals.
The internal market state shows bullish bias but only 38.6% directional confidence, that's essentially a coin flip, and when the algos are this uncertain, I fade the recent move. The 6-2 bull-bear stack sounds bullish until you realize that's only 75% agreement, and with ADX this high, we need near-unanimous confirmation for continuation.
Bottom line: this looks like a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend rather than the start of a new leg up. The combination of overbought Stochastic, weak money flow, bearish MACD, and resistance cluster overhead tilts the probabilities toward downside resolution. I'm giving this a 68% confidence bearish call, not slam-dunk territory, but enough edge to take a position with proper risk management.
What are you guys seeing here? Are you fading this bounce or waiting for confirmation above $93,200?
Ethereum 1H: Holds Its Bullish Channel 🔹 MARKET BRIEFINGMarket State:
– Price is pulling back from the channel’s upper resistance and is now stabilizing around mid-range, while still respecting the ascending channel structure.
Key Levels:
– Support: 3,160
– Resistance: 3,440
– Breakout Zone: 3,440 – 3,520
Next Move:
– Bullish bias remains intact as long as ETH continues to hold above the channel’s support; reclaiming 3,440 would open momentum toward 3,520 and potentially the upper boundary.
The bullish structure on XAUUSD has now been fully established and this is a valid buy signal at the current price.
Momentum, structure, and demand alignment are all pointing in the same direction, confirming that buyers are in control and the market is ready for the next upward leg.
Why ETH Dropped After the Fed Rate Cut
1. Macro Overview – Why ETH Pulled Back Even After the Fed Cut
Despite the Fed cutting interest rates a move typically supportive for risk assets ETH corrected sharply due to short-term “sell the news” positioning, profit-taking from the recent rally, and liquidity reshuffling as markets reassessed the pace of future cuts. However, the broader macro environment still favors long-term bullish continuation: lower borrowing costs, easing financial conditions, and improving risk appetite all support capital rotation back into crypto once volatility cools. In other words, yesterday’s drop was a tactical shakeout, not a structural trend reversal, and the market is now forming a sideways accumulation phase consistent with a bullish continuation setup.
2. Market State
ETH is pulling back from the ascending channel’s upper resistance and is now stabilizing around the mid-range. The price is still respecting the channel structure, indicating that buyers are absorbing supply and forming a consolidation base rather than breaking trend. This aligns with a sideways phase before the next expansion leg upward.
3. Key Levels
Support: 3,160
Resistance: 3,440
Breakout Zone: 3,440 – 3,520
4. Next Move
The bullish bias remains intact as long as ETH trades above the channel’s support. Reclaiming 3,440 would signal renewed buyer strength and open a clean path toward 3,520, with potential continuation into the channel’s upper boundary. Until then, ETH is likely to move sideways within the range as the market digests the macro shift and prepares for the next bullish leg.






















