This is clearly ready to pop with a key horizontal level and diagonal trendline being tested. Above rising 5 day MA. Placing a stop under rectangle.
As I continue to look for premium selling plays other than earnings plays, XHB's IVR (currently 71) looks modestly favorable for a premium selling play: This is the play I filled around market open for a .47 credit ... . (Sorry I didn't note any of the stats at the time ... ). Nov 6th 29/31/36/38 Iron Condor
XHB rallied off 34.44 (May 4, 2015 weekly low) to post a new 8-1/2 year high at 37.78 (June 24, 2015) near the potential rising wedge resistance (as shown on the weekly chart). If bulls continue to main strong momentum, further strength is expected to open the 38.69 projection target ahead of the 40.03 high (February 2, 2007). The 36.14/35.38 support zone which...
XHB has been consolidating within a 2-month range between March’s 35.01 low and the 37.31 YTD peak (March 31, 2015). While the 35.01 range support holds dips, back above the 36.59 resistance (April 16, 2015 high) would suggest basing and offer scope for further bullish momentum towards 37.31. Clearance above the latter is needed to complete the 2-month long...
last trading day the paper broke a rising channel also there is sort of double top with MACD bearish on the second 35 $ is the main support but agressive traders will short now stop above 37
Earlier this month, the idea of lumber being a signal for economic data was brought to the table (here). Lumber is not necessarily a trader’s first go-to for evaluating economic forecasts, but there is a striking resemblance in trend for lumber and the ISM manufacturing PMI data. As lumber prices dive, manufacturing data tends to do the same (and vice versa)....
The homebuilders index is experiencing a cup with handle pattern. At the current moment, it is at the bottom of the handle. Will volume follow through or will this pattern fail? Technicals do not look promising.
Taking a little off the top at the psychological level of $100 with excess supply, lo demand, distribution & pro active selling signals. High average trade size today indicates trading desks were active. I didn't check LOW yet as it is not a holding. Just managing risk and will use an option strategy also. Targets noted. This may play out in January. Time to...
Housing is coming into it's slow season, every number around housing is declining or down tremendously YOY. The FED and the presstitute media have been proping up housing as it represents the line in the sand for the economy sentiment. Housing gonna implode... and it may take the market with it, as the S&P ran up to an all time high in only 19 days... a new...
Housing SUCKS. This is the SLOW season coming up, to make it worse. New housing apps down to lowest level in forever, everything about housing SUCKS. GREAT SHORT HERE. Update 11/21: I was a little early on this short! I was happy to buy a few cheap $33.5 weekly puts for next week. I typically don't like to buy options at the end of the week to carry into the...
Home prices are falling, less and less applications for homes, and rising interest rates... nothing is going well for the housing hangover...
I wrote back on 5/4 on my blog that "I'm standing by XHB" that I thought the negativity around housing was excessive and higher prices would eventually come our way. Some of the "smart" money on Wall Street was decisively negative. Among the stories predicting the fall in stock prices of the home builders included this one from Friday the 23rd. Big investors...