TRADE IDEA: XLF AUGUST 21ST 20/23/24/27 IRON FLY... for a 1.51 credit (.38 at 25% max).
Notes: 5 out of XLF's top 10 holdings announce next week, so this is a way to get a piece of that volatility without getting into single name, with a classic risk one to make one iron fly setup. I've split the shorties across current price, but would look to take profit at 25% max, as you would with a short straddle/iron fly. Naturally, you may have to adjust the strikes, depending on what XLF does early in the week.
For those who like to trade naked, the August 21st 23/24 skinny short strangle was paying 1.90 (.48 at 25% max) as of Friday close.
XLF
XLF Analysis XLF Bullish Confluence across TA, Dark Pool orders, Options Flow and Volume ( Contracts to buy 7/17 25c or 10/16 28c)
Volume Before Close: 1min-2.633M (1st), 5min-5.298M (1st), 15min-9.295M (3rd)
Dark Pool Orders: 6 Orders (144 Million)
Options Flow: 9 Sweep Orders (654,000) 3 Block Orders (365,000)
No Bearish Flow
TA Below
XLF Short Position, !Copper Longs; 12:54:50 (UTC) Mon Jun 29, 20With lumber up 2.3%, copper has made a new higher high and I am not bullish on copper, for the current bullish phase transition to bullish. This relates to the fact that we should see nominal GDP remain muted, thus causing stagflationary economic environment for the time being.
13:05:08 (UTC)
Mon Jun 29, 2020
Bears getting strongerSPY got crushed -2.4% on Friday.
Support zone is at 296.5- 298.5 at 50 DMA and 200 DMA respectively.
All major indices again lost more then 2% on Friday.
Remember the 6% one day drop 12 days back. Well, that's a gonzo bearish candle. We are now in a new bearish channel.
For me to turn bullish ES futures first need to take out 3157 (SPY 316) and then 3188.50 (SPY 319).
The clue for the bearish market is sick XLF (-4.3% loss on Friday).
But always be wary of market supportive:
-Tweets
-FED actions
-Corona vaccine planted news
XLF approaching the demand zone.CURRENCYCOM:XLF is approaching the demand zone. A breakdown & close below it will start its downtrend again.
XLF - banks not looking good 6-12moPotential for a fakeout here but my hypothesis is that we see new local lows on XLF by the end of 2020. You may think the banking sector looks poised for a rebound if you look at the weekly candles, but the monthly candles look like this dump could just be getting started.
Short XLF
Entry: $23-25
Stop: 26.50
Target: $18.50 - $13
Assess in October, adjust 18.50
HSBC Triple Bottom Dating back to 1996 $XLF $HSBC $Bank $JPM
Why HSBC?
HSBC Triple Bottom Dating back to 1996, they got a lot of cash on their books too so fundamentally, they are worth around $26/share.
although they had shady practices n the past, if you want to pick a bank for long term investing, this is good value overall.
Entry $23 area
stoploss $20.90
1st target $24.4
2nd target $26
3rd target $32
What is Hsbc?
HSBC Holdings plc provides banking and financial products and services. The company operates through Retail Banking and Wealth Management, Commercial Banking, Global Banking and Markets, and Global Private Banking segments. The Retail Banking and Wealth Management segment offers personal banking products, such as current and savings accounts, mortgages and personal loans, credit cards, debit cards, and domestic and international payment services, as well as wealth management services, including insurance and investment products, global asset management services, and financial planning services.
>BAD DAY FOR FINANCIALS<ElliotWaveFLATabc>3-3-5<CORRECTION<SHORTAs this title suggests. Things could get very bad for American Financial companies.
We are directly at the cusp. 2 scenarios play out from here.
This is the bearish scenario where we have JUST completed A 3-3-5 FLAT abc Elliot wave correction from v dumps.
We should see another leg down equal to the V DUMP , dump from here. This will complete the 3-3-5 Correction on the larger timeframe. The Primary (yellow) ABC.
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A = V Dump
B = Rally to here (flat correction itself, just completed)
C = Another drop 1:1 V Dump just beginning.
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A one to one Fib Based extension of the drop puts us ... at the bottom of the chart there. The C wave completion Down.
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Pull out your shorting pants chaps. One robot fist at a time.
Easiest Trade, fundamental calls for pull backWe have artificially propped up market condition with high prices and low volumes on any matrix. Financial sector is not untouched by it. Recent rally in financial sector feels more like a speculation than value investment. But we're all allowed to speculate so power to all market participants.
However the rally calls for pullback and there's a easiest trade case to be made about FAZ which is 3X leveraged Financial Bears ETF. with great upside returns due to a pullback on fundamental levels. Be aware leveraged ETF is not a product to hold for a long time so quick returns enthusiast should understand risk before buying. Good Luck !






















