With a massive squeeze on 4 timeframes (4hr/6hr/1D and 1W), XLF is poised to make a big move (In the chart, blue candles are all TF squeeze candles).
Squeeze release is usually accompanied by a fakeout, so need to be careful there, but based on other momentum indications, good chance of this breaking up. Breaking up that RSI resistance will be a good...
This chart shows the ratio between XLK (Technology) and XLF (Financials).
When the chart is going up the the indicator is saying go long technology.
Sideways then equal weighting.
Chart going down then overweight XLF, lighten up on XLK.
It also shows that the current situation is that XLK is at a top. In fact it is significantly above the DOT COM bubble of...
... for a 1.78 credit.
Notes: A naked variation on my trading idea post. (See Below). Looks like that would still be a good setup: paying 1.46 at the mid with a max loss of 1.54, so basically a risk one to make one ... .
The XLF is a major decision point. It's at the end of a wedge within another wedge. The solid green line at the bottom is flag support. XLF needs to maintain that flag support or it will take a trip to below $22.
Bank earnings are tomorrow. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo will set the tone for what earnings will be like. RTY and ES' fate now lies with the financial...
... for a 1.51 credit (.38 at 25% max).
Notes: 5 out of XLF's top 10 holdings announce next week, so this is a way to get a piece of that volatility without getting into single name, with a classic risk one to make one iron fly setup. I've split the shorties across current price, but would look to take profit at 25% max, as you would with a short straddle/iron...
XLF Bullish Confluence across TA, Dark Pool orders, Options Flow and Volume ( Contracts to buy 7/17 25c or 10/16 28c)
Volume Before Close: 1min-2.633M (1st), 5min-5.298M (1st), 15min-9.295M (3rd)
Dark Pool Orders: 6 Orders (144 Million)
Options Flow: 9 Sweep Orders (654,000) 3 Block Orders (365,000)
No Bearish Flow
SPY closed up 0.92% yesterday.
With no conviction.
SPY up bias but bulls resolve wanting.
SPOOS are giving up most of yesterday's gain, down -21 handles as of now.
Banks (BAC, MS) earnings reaction is indicated negative pre-open.
Weak XLF sure to pressure SPY to the down side in the early going.
Financials are looking good mostly thanks to Uncle Jerome's aggressive stimulus plan and banks of course "being too big to fail". With that said, there are several key players ($GS $JPM) in this space that are also at the forefront of financial services innovation and strong cash flows/liquidity. All of this paints a pretty bullish fundamental for the...
With lumber up 2.3%, copper has made a new higher high and I am not bullish on copper, for the current bullish phase transition to bullish. This relates to the fact that we should see nominal GDP remain muted, thus causing stagflationary economic environment for the time being.
Mon Jun 29, 2020