- QQQ equilibrium pattern is going to be key break for which direction market is going the next couple days, - XLF KRE bear break to new lows will break QQQ equilibrium bear and then drag SPY down even more. - Yellen flip flop - no deposit guarantee yesterday to today it will be. (the more they flip flop back and forth the more we see them as less confident)...
- Looking for a hourly Bear flag on SPY and QQQ after this huge move down. - XLF and KRE top watch to see if we break fear lows/52 week low. Fear would likely come back in if we do break the lows - looking for SOXX/SMH to go from lead bull turning into lead bear - Rate hikes is a head wind more for QQQ then SPY, so after Powell saying no rate cuts this year, we...
With major weakness in the banking sector we are still seeing the contagion play out. Some banks are more at risk than others. Based off of a blow out in Credit Default Swaps. The bond market is showing there is tremendous risk in this bank. Just like Credit Suisse CD's blew out befroe the collapse, we are watching COF credit defaults blowout.
- NASDAQ QQQ and SPY closed near resistance QQQ im looking at $311 daily time frame triple top. - FOMC 25BPS tomorrow 80% chance, need to see in Powell's speech if this is our last hike or we get a pause, also information on the banking situation too. - XLF is going to be key factor tomorrow for SPY's direction, went completely sideways today will break...
- KRE and XLF still in a bear flag territory, Both are closing in on their tightening range and will break very soon either tomorrow or Wednesday. we will get a lot of volume and volatility once this breaks. - QQQ & SPY have a Triple top resistance, if XLF break bull SPY will very likely break that resistance, so will watching all 4 closely. - FOMC Wednesday...
- XLF holding triple bottom support 15m, holding above yeseterdays low bounce off of it 3 times today, first initial sign for the bulls. Now bulls need the hourly trend change for XLF back to an uptrend to help SPY - QQQ's drop may seem a lot today due to how fast we pulled back from the morning but we are still way above 0.386 fib retracement on daily therefore...
There is a common misconception that higher rates are bullish for banks. This is wrong! Banks make money on a spread between short-term bonds 2yr or less and loan out at 10 years or more. Thus when the yield curve collapses as it is doing right now. Bank profits are dwindling as there is less margin for risk-taking when making loans. Dec. 3rd I posted this chart...
- 7.5% move on QQQ/NASDAQ in 4 days. AAPL and MSFT now hitting key resistance, will be watching to see if it can break above or not for QQQ to continue. - likely a slight pullback hourly consolidation for QQQ before attempting another leg up. - after ECB hiked 0.5% this morning our rate hike of 25Bps increased to 80% chance this morning. - XLF hourly bullflag...
- PPI data came in better then expected increasing the likelihood of a pause to 50-60% - XLF gapped down new lows but closed around cash open area, meaning there wasnt a lot of bear follow through after the gap down. The first sign bulls want to see is XLF holding its lows and start to bounce or even just going sideways is good for tech bulls. Bears want to see...
The chart posted is the first part of what I see as a Fractal Design back in 1986 to 1990 Recession I will post that as well
Bank of America (BAC) shows a lower low bearish sequence from 1.10.2022 high favoring further downside in the stock. Near term, cycle from 2.8.2023 high is in progress as a 5 waves Elliott Wave impulse. Down from 2.8.2023 high, wave 1 ended at 33 and rally in wave 2 ended at 34.56 as the 1 hour chart below shows. The stock resumes lower in wave 3 with internal...
- CPI data came in expected today, excpet core is 0.1% hotter market didn't really care since we need something really hot to not get a 0.25bps - PPI data likely will come in expected as well today, since CPI was pretty aligned so technical matter more now - SPX came close to 200 MA today rejected the 3940 area but QQQ is above 200 MA - QQQ and SPX reject...
To be honest i don't know where XLF will go from here. With my current skill level and studies, I think we can go a little more lower. What do you guys think? Comment Below
- CPI data tomorrow will likely determine if we can break that triple top on QQQ - money rotating around today to tech sectors no a complete FEAR day where money is leaving the market. - KRE / XLF ETF needs to bounce for SPY to bounce - 0.25bp current priced in at 62%, and a pause at 38% - if we break that triple, im looking for a daily bounce and would liking...
A lot of talk on who is to blame for the SVB Financial collapse – this is the first big casualty of rapid rate hikes and tighter policy, but who is to blame and what are the next steps? -SVBs management – they invested short-term deposits in longer term fixed income assets – where a large % of its $120b securities portfolio lacked any kind of interest rate hedge...
- Very notable drop in the last 3 days for all sectors. Most important factor to remember is always following the trend and dont try to fight against it. Even though today there was a lot of opportunity in both direction it was quite a choppy day. - I mentioned yesterday any pop bullish on premarket data will be a good short for all sectors and i will be getting...
banks are the engine of the debt system economy. silver gate is done. FDIC had to kick in to protect depositors. XLF shows selling, will this lead sp500?
Today we saw a systemic risk in the financial sector. The regional banks were hit extremally hard and as a result the Major banks saw sell side liquidation. Where there's one cockroach, there's usually another. Risk in the banking sector is the worst type of risk investors can ask for. Credit liquidity crisis is not something to mess around with. SIVB looks...