Who says turkeys can't fly? Holiday TSA throughput

WHO SAYS TURKEYS CAN'T FLY? HOLIDAY TSA THROUGHPUT (1130 EST/1630 GMT)

Yet another Thanksgiving is in the books, and while many Americans are spending the Black Friday brawling strangers for waffle irons, market participants - faced with light volume and a dearth of market moving catalysts - are sifting through the holiday's detritus for clues about the consumer.

Thankfully, our friends at the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) have up-to-the-minute throughput data.

On Wednesday, 2.46 million Americans removed their shoes and emptied their pockets as they shuffled through security checkpoints in U.S. airports, on what is typically the busiest travel day of the year.

How does that number stack up against previous years?

The good news is that it's a 6.2% improvement over the same day last year and a whopping 129.2% increase over the same Wednesday in 2020, a time when a second lethal COVID wave was just beginning to ebb and the first vaccines were receiving emergency FDA approval.

The bad news is that it's a discouraging 8.2% below 2019, when words like "coronavirus" and "social distancing" had yet to be added to the global lexicon.

The likely culprit for the weakness is inflation.

Consumer prices have been running hotter than wage inflation for a full year now, which means Americans have less money to spend on non-essentials.

Air fares, in particular, have set a cruising altitude somewhere between the stratosphere and the moon.

The cost of a boarding pass has risen, on an annual basis, every month this year. And for the last eight months through October, year-on-year air fare inflation had been well over 20%. The October print was a gasp-inducing 42.5%.

In the midst of all this turbulence, airlines have been flying into the wind.

The S&P 1500 Airlines index (.SPCOMAIR) has, as of Wednesday's close, increased 67.3% from its May 2020 nadir following the pandemic crash, but remains 42.6% below its pre-COVID levels.

The graphic below provides convenient one-stop shopping for all of the above (note that the most recent TSA datapoint is for Thursday):

(Stephen Culp)

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STOCKS OPEN MIXED, BLACK FRIDAY SALES IN FOCUS (1000 EST/1500 GMT)

U.S. stocks opened mixed on Friday with Black Friday sales taking the main focus as investors weighed whether consumers will be enticed by discounts as they struggle with high inflation and concerns about economic growth.

Target Corp TGT, Macy's Inc M and Best Buy Co Inc BBY have said they would offer steeper discounts this November and December than in the previous two years, which could threaten their profit margins.

Trading volumes on Friday are expected to be subdued after U.S. markets were closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI was the best performing major index, opening up 0.39%, followed by the S&P 500 SPX, which eeked out minor gains. The Nasdaq Composite IXIC fell 0.41%.

Sector wise, utilities S5UTIL, energy SPN and real estate S5REAS led gainers, while info tech S5INFT, communications services S5TELS and consumer discretionary S5COND were the worst performers.