rumpypumpydumpy

ALMA Hurst Cycles - Potential Pivot points.

Experiment in finding potential pivots using using multiple period volatility measurements (ATR) and ALMA .
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Warning!!! Must be tuned to obtain a good price fit for your time frame and instrument (and probably general market conditions). Default settings are only eyeball fit for XBTUSD 5M



So proper write up for a change :p


So a single ATR measurement say ATR(5) doesn't give much information alone, it doesn't give us direction for example. However if we plot a MA (in this case the Arnaud Legoux MA) and plot bands which are a multiple of the ATR around the MA we get a potential trading range based on recent volatility .

The assumption being that if volatility remains approximately the same AND if price moves beyond this ATR range it is highly probable to result in a reversion to the mean. Having reached the limit of recent volatility , available buying/selling pressure is exhausted and price pivots from that point back to the mean.

Now, if we plot multiple MA's of different lengths, they alone don't tell us too much alone either. But we also find reversions to the mean occurring between say a long and short MA. The short MA will rise above/below the long MA, return to the mean etc creating crossovers.

So we combine the two concepts. Three different length MAs with corresponding ATR lengths. The smallest band cycles above/below the median of the medium band (diverging from and reverting to the mean) and the medium band cycles above/below the median of the large band.

We want to find extreme points where a pivot is probable. The small band "bounces" or cycles back and forth within the medium band and the medium band "bounces" or cycles back and forth within the large band. Approximate short, medium and long trading ranges relative to MAs.

So for example and theoretically when the small band cycles to the top of the medium band AND the medium band cycles to the top of the large band and the price has risen above all of them, there is a high probability of there being a reversal.



So here's the interesting bit. There is far more going on than is immediately apparent. If you take the bands and normalize them (ie you pulled the median, upper and lower bands so they're straight horizontal lines), the price's position relative to the bands would give you something very, very close to an RSI .

The bands effectively give you three different length RSI's. When price exceeds all three bands is roughly equivalent to seeing the confluence of overbought/sold on three different length RSI's.

However unlike RSI , we also get an approximate trading range and price levels that that RSI would have to reach to indicate it is overbought/sold that takes into account recent volatility .

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Caveats :
Similar to RSI downsides. Multi leg pumps/dumps can remain overbought/sold and give false signals.

Extended, narrow and declining ranges/ squeezes don't require much change in price action to trigger false signals.

Performs the best when ranging.


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Signals and Bar Colors :

Bar colors (optional in settings) :
Green - Short MA > Medium MA > Long MA
Red - Short MA < Medium MA < Long MA




Three "tiered" signals:

Large triangles. High probabilty pivot . Price exceeded all bands at the top/bottom.

Medium triangles. Price exceeded the small and medium bands, DIDN'T exceed the large band AND the small band HAS exceeded the medium band.

Small triangles. Price exceeded the small and medium bands, DIDN'T exceed the large band AND the small band DIDN'T exceed the medium band.
Release Notes: Added option to use VWMA instead of ALMA
Release Notes: Fixed titles and added alert conditions for all signals.
Release Notes: Added some options for ATR based stop loss management if you want to manually plot a chandelier stop for example.
eg. uses high - (atr(ATR Length) * Multiplier) for long stop
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