Capital Exhaustion Cycles
What is capital exhaustion? To explain it simply: Picture you are working out and eventually hit fatigue, at that point your body signals that you can no longer proceed and need to rest. Capital exhaustion with tradable assets (stocks, cryptocurrencies, etc.) occurs the same way. At some point, the market collectively becomes fatigued. Unable to push an asset a certain direction (can be or ) the market reverses the direction of the trending price which results in a correction. This is natural & how markets need to work to keep an equilibrium true to the assets value. Being able to measure this in your analysis can be extremely valuable in deciding where to base your trades.
There are some indicators out there such as the TD Sequential (created by Tom ) that attempt to measure the exhaustion rate and identify potential capital shifts. I began to use the TD Sequential around 2012 when a colleague of mine sent me an article from Bloomberg on this theory used to measure exhaustion. The theory goes like this: If a candle within a trend is higher (or lower in the case of a bear trend) than the fourth candle back then the trend continues. By Tom Demark's theory the ninth candle is typically where the trend reverses and one must watch for a potential entry on a capital shift. There is a few factors that go into trading the TD Sequential (in addition to other elements he created for measuring such) that we wont get into, I'll explain why....
After using the TD for some years now I have found the reliability and use of it for analysis to be semi-flawed. Yes, there is trend reversals at some of the parameters Tom outlined, but overall I have found the sequential part of it to not only be difficult to use, but also inaccurate to an extent that makes me uncomfortable when factoring it into my analysis. Yes, there are many successful traders that have used the TD in their analysis and have had great success with it. However, I feel the theory behind it can be improved and the visuals of it can be altered to be more user friendly.
This put me on a search for a more reliable and facile method to measure capital exhaustion. There is nothing perfect with , if there was, one could theoretically own the entire market over time, so I approached this task with that in mind. As I begin to explain my ALPHA: Exhaustion indicator keep this in mind: Nothing can be perfected when it comes to measuring the predictability of human psychology and markets. However, I believe I have found a way to measure capital exhaustion in a clean, accurate, and easy to understand method. Applying this indicator to an analysis can greatly improve the accuracy, reliability and speed of an analyst. I've also added some really neat "safety precautions" to the indicator to indicate when an already confirmed trend is showing weakness (such as chop) or a premature reversal.
That being said, I introduce to you a new series of indicators created in my digital moon lab with a team of analysts: ALPHA
The ALPHA series will launch with this indicator first. From here I will be introducing a whole series of improved indicators to add to your analysis techniques. Bigger shake ups coming soon in the world of and strength oscillators. ;)
My approach with the ALPHA: Exhaustion is simple, color the candles on a gradient scale based on my exhaustion method for an analyst to easily identify the rate of exhaustion. Additionally, add simple features that help confirm whether a trend has a confirmed beginning and ending. Furthermore I took it a step further and added features that detect weakness in a confirmed trend and give you early indications that the trend may reverse or cancel.
Keeping the advanced analyst in mind I also added options to identify unconfirmed trend beginnings and aggressive endings. These parameters are loose and designed for the analyst who has the comfort of being an aggressive trader. I will get into those options last as they are extremely speculative. The default options on the indicator are designed to show confirmed trends. As you play with this indicator you will discover that many times a wild swing has happened but the indicator was unable to identify it. The reason being is it is meant to identify CONFIRMED trends & be used with other indicators during an analysis, not just used for signals or independently of other analysis tools.
There are many factors that go into an assets price movement, exhaustion, , strength, momentum and more, it is unreasonable to think that one should base their analysis off of one of those factors alone. is like a puzzle, you have many puzzle pieces and its impossible to see the entire picture of the puzzle until you fit all those pieces together.
Seen below we have a clear trend beginning, the candles begin their normal color of green, as the trend continues the gradient of the white becomes brighter indicating exhaustion.
As the trend continues the indicator identifies that the market is exhausting and colors the candles a brighter white. (see below)
Eventually once the trend exhausts the indicator identifies & confirms the exhaustion and reverts back the coloring in real time as price adjusts. But wait there is more!
There is an option to turn the safety symbols off and on as can be seen in this link below:
This option does two things. The first is it adds half crescents to the top or bottom of a trend like the image below.
These half crescents indicate that the trend is beyond normal exhaustion parameters but is still continuing. At this point, this is where I pay attention and watch for the crescents to disappear. When the crescents disappear the candle coloring will change back to normal indicating that trend has confirmed as exhausted. It is entirely possible to have one or two candles of chop and then it continues but generally it has meant exhaustion criteria. One feature I have added is once the crescents disappear the indicator watches for a confirmed trend reversal to begin and will paint an arrow showing the trend reversal confirmation. We will get into that later though.
The second feature of the safety symbols is the risk line. The option also enables the risk line of the prior trends top. (See image below)
If a trader were to find entries of a confirmed trend based on the indicator painting the confirmed trend arrow (will explain further down) then one could place their stop loss there, but proper analysis should be done and decided upon by the user. (Keep in mind this is an indicator for analysis, not a signal generating system, please be sure to read the disclosures on my website https://www.thetradingwizard.com/privacy... and also the disclosure at the end of this post)
By default the indicator paints a pink (for downtrend confirmation) or blue (uptrend) arrow on a confirmed trend reversal after exhaustion of a prior trend.
The arrow paints in real time as the criteria is met of an exhausted trend on the third candle. Once the prior trend is exhausted (can happen with or without the crescent safety (or pay attention) symbols. The design of it can sometimes be late in an assets movement, but its meant to be a confirmed trend at that point.
Additionally, after a confirmed trend beginning the indicator watches for weakness or a trend ending criteria match. When it identifies such, the indicator paints a pink or blue (depending on the direction) stop sign.
These trend endings can come in two forms, the indicator has realized trend exhaustion has occurred and is going to reverse very near, or it has identified weakness in capital exhaustion and paints the symbol to let you know the trend is either going to reverse, or chop. (sideways with no clear trend) Below is examples of when the indicator identified the weakness early in real time after a trend start confirmation.
As can be seen above the indicator confirmed an uptrend and then later identified weakness in the trend indicating an early termination before the risk line was hit. It is typically early (by design) but there is an option for a more aggressive trend ending. This has less confirmation protocols built in when enabled, I will explain that in the next section.
Aggressive Trend End
Seen in the link here is the Aggressive trend end option:
This option loosens the rules & parameters for a trend ending and gives a more aggressive view of a trend end. This is for aggressive analysts that would like a less confirmed trend ending.
Aggressive Unconfirmed Trend
Another option that can be enabled is Aggressive Trend arrows. In order to use this you must enable Aggressive Trend Ending:
What this option does is identify in real time early trends that are unconfirmed. You will get a lot of arrows painted with this option enabled but it is designed for analysts who take a more aggressive & unconfirmed approach to trading.
I wanted to create a more accurate and easy to use indicator for identifying exhaustion cycles, I believe this does so. That being said, it is extremely important to note as I did in the intro that this is an analysis tool, simply a piece to add to your analysis arsenal. Never rely on one piece of information for analysis as is a complex art that requires many data inputs. This indicator can be used on all time frames with all tradable assets.
This indicator is available for TradingView users on my web site https://www.thetradingwizard.com/ for $99, that includes a life time subscription. Everybody that uses this indicator will get a private group class with it that I will schedule sometime next week (3/4/19-3/8/19) to explain various methods this can be used with analysis and answer any questions the users may have. If you purchase after those dates I will still send the class recording. Additionally I will be doing a public stream on my YouTube either tonight or tomorrow introducing this. Enjoy and trade safe!
Nothing in this post is to be used or construed as financial advice. The indicator is not a signal generating indicator and should not be used to trade off of solely. This post is meant as an educational post to explain the functions of the indicator.
Please do your own research and use my content to educate yourself.
I’ve been using it for a couple days and find it quite useful.
My Guess - you didn’t try it, you have competing software, and or didn’t give it a fair shake/look at back testing.... because it does work....
P.S. Is there a way to build automated strategies around it (especially to do some backtesting on different ways of using it)? TradingView doesn't allow usage of custom indicators inside a strategy. Do you see any other ways of doing that?