1. Set the put and call strike inputs to values of your choosing.
2. Select "days to expiration".
3. Set the put and call standard deviations using the output table.
The indicator is meant help price a strangle using historical data and a model. By default, the model is an ewma-method . After selecting strikes and standard their corresponding standard deviation, theoretical values and probabilities will be shown in the table. The script is initialized with -1 for several inputs, and won't show any data until these are adjusted.
The theoretical values shown assume a strangle was bought or sold on every historical bar, and averaging their value at expiration.
For example, if you choose the $50 call and $40 put when the underlying is at $45 and there are 30 days until expiration, suppose the is N and
these strikes correspond to M standard deviations. Input those and the resulting theoretial values shown will be based on opening a 30 dte call and put at M standard deviations with respect to the at each bar.
- Past forecasts are plotted in blue, and hidden by default.
- The current forecast is drawn as a blue line.
- The put and call strikes are drawn as red lines.
This indicator is only meant for the daily chart!
Since I won't be able to edit this description later, also check the release notes and script comments for important changes.
- some cosmetic changes
Note: this script is meant for the daily chart.
- The lines now end on the correct calendar day (previously they extended one day extra).
In true TradingView spirit, the author of this script has published it open-source, so traders can understand and verify it. Cheers to the author! You may use it for free, but reuse of this code in a publication is governed by House Rules. You can favorite it to use it on a chart.