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Moving Averages

EMA [Fax Academy]EMA is a refined, high-precision exponential moving average suite engineered for professional traders in Forex, metals (gold), indices, and crypto. Built for clarity, reliability, and structural market insight — without unnecessary complexity. Why This Indicator Institution-grade trend detection Dynamic support/resistance that adapts to volatility Optimized for execution, pullback entries, and structural clarity Zero repainting — all calculations use confirmed price data Minimalist by design — only essential EMAs are enabled to keep your chart clean Included EMA Levels A complete set of strategic EMAs tailored for intraday, swing, and long-term analysis. Toggle EMAs: 20 · 50 · 100 · 200 · 300 · 400 · 500 · 800 · 1000 Custom EMAs (4 Slots): User-defined range (1–1000) Individual ON/OFF switches Fully customizable colors and styling This design ensures flexibility for every strategy — from scalping to macro positioning. How to Use Add the indicator to your chart. Enable only the EMA levels relevant to your trading style. Use the custom EMA slots to tailor the indicator to your personal strategy. Adjust colors and thickness under Style for maximum clarity. The result: a clean, professional workspace tailored to your workflow. Recommended Setups (Forex / Gold) Intraday Momentum & Pullback EMA 20 – Short-term directional strength EMA 50 – Pullback structure and micro-trend filter EMA 200 – Higher-timeframe trend bias (above = bullish, below = bearish) Swing & Position Trading EMA 50 + 200 – Classic trend structure Add EMA 100 – Dynamic mid-term support/resistance Macro Trend & Regime Analysis EMA 300 / 400 / 500 / 800 / 1000 Reveal long-cycle trend behavior and institutional structure — ideal for gold and indices How to Interpret EMAs Trend Guidance: slope and price positioning Dynamic Levels: reactions around EMA 20/50 indicate continuation or slowdown Major Pullbacks: EMA 100/200 define deeper structural retests Confluence Zones: clusters of EMAs highlight high-probability decision points This indicator is built to help you see structure, not noise. Default Settings EMA 100 → Enabled (balanced mid-term anchor) All other levels → Disabled (activate only what you need) Colors optimized for clarity and easily editable Additional Notes Works seamlessly on all instruments and timeframes Fast and lightweight, engineered for real-time decision-making Non-repainting and built with efficient logic Ideal for professional traders who prioritize structure and simplicity Brand Statement Designed by Fax Academy, this indicator reflects a commitment to precision, clarity, and professional-grade tools. It is intended for educational and analytical use only — always combine with proven risk management.
Pine Script® indicator
by faxacademy
PRO Triple+ Confirmation Overlay SignalsThis script uses the 200 SMA + RSI + MACD confirmations as buy and sell signals. It only give a signal if all three line up. works well for general market direction signals. It also has a higher time frame filter that will filter out 70%-90% of traps and counter trend signals. MACD momentum trigger times entries with momentum shifts. RSI confirmation as well as volume confirmation to remove entries in low volume dead markets.
Pine Script® indicator
by ryanpaget13
EMA 7/21 + SuperTrend DEFINITIVOhe Ultimate 7/21 Signal: Trend-Filtered by Supertrend 🚀Tired of signals that trade against the main trend? This powerful indicator features the 7/21 EMA Crossover as its core signal, but with a massive upgrade in confirmation:Trend Alignment: Only signals that move in the direction of the Supertrend are confirmed, drastically reducing false entries.Momentum Filter: The ADX DI ensures the move has directional strength.Conviction Check: A Volume Filter validates the signal with market participation.This multi-stage filter provides clean, high-conviction signals for the $7/21$ strategy. The intuitive Informative Panel clearly shows when all conditions are met for a BUY or SELL.Trade with the trend. Trade with conviction.
Pine Script® indicator
by acgcapital
paigep.llc - SuperMASuperMA is a multi-layered moving-average and candle-coloring system that combines SMA, EMA, and optional HMA logic to help traders visualize trend shifts, pullbacks, and momentum changes in a clean, structured way. The script includes multiple modules: trend-based moving averages, pullback signals, exit logic, and an optional HMA cross engine. 📌 Core Features 1. Full SMA + EMA Framework The indicator plots multiple moving averages (8, 9, 13, 20, 50, 200) using both SMA and EMA calculations. Each line automatically colors bullish or bearish based on its relationship to the 200-period baseline.Users can toggle SMAs and EMAs independently for clearer chart control. 2. Main Trend Entry & Exit Logic (8×200 and 8×20) Built-in crossover logic detects: Main Entry: SMA 8 crossing above/below EMA 200 Main Exit: SMA 8 and SMA 20 cross (with an option to choose which SMA is treated as the “fast” leg) A “first exit only” option allows the script to ignore additional exit signals until a new trend regime begins. 3. Pullback Module (20 SMA Interaction) Pullback entries and exits occur when price crosses the 20 SMA during existing trend conditions. This includes: Pullback entries through the 20 SMA Pullback exits back across the 20 SMA Labels and candle colors are available for all pullback events. 4. Optional HMA Cross Module A separate module allows traders to use two Hull Moving Averages (HMA) with customizable: Lengths Independent timeframes Line colors Cross-based entries and exits This module has its own events, labels, and optional candle coloring. 5. Advanced Candle Coloring System Candle coloring is layered in priority order, based on: Main trend entries Main exits HMA entries HMA exits Pullback entries Pullback exits Trend-only candles (based on SMA 8 relative to EMA 200) Users may also independently color wicks and borders. 6. Configurable Alerts (Fully Decoupled from Visuals) Alerts are available for all major events, including: Main Entries (8×200) Main Exits (8×20) Pullback Entries and Exits HMA Entries and Exits Bull or Bear Trend candles Any colored candle event Alerts can fire on bar close only or intrabar, depending on user preference. 📌 Use Cases SuperMA helps traders visualize: Trend direction using SMA/EMA structure Momentum shifts through HMA crosses Pullback zones around the 20 SMA Early regime transitions based on the 8×200 relationship Candle-level context through color-coded bars The indicator works across all markets and timeframes. ⚠️ Note This tool is for visual and analytical assistance only. It does not guarantee future performance and should be combined with additional analysis and risk management.
Pine Script® indicator
by paigepllc
EMA 7/21 + SuperTrend INDICADOR CREADO PARA MI ESTRATEGIA That sounds like a complex and multi-layered trading indicator you've developed! Combining an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossover with an Average Directional Index (ADX) filter, a Volume filter, and a Supertrend for overall trend confirmation can certainly help to filter out false signals and potentially increase the reliability of your entry and exit points.Here's a breakdown of the components you're using and why this combination can be powerful:📊 Indicator Components and Their Roles1. 7/21 EMA Crossover (Signal Generator)The $7$-period EMA and $21$-period EMA crossover is a common strategy used to generate initial buy or sell signals.Buy Signal: The short-term EMA (7) crosses above the long-term EMA (21).Sell Signal: The short-term EMA (7) crosses below the long-term EMA (21).2. ADX DI Filter (Momentum and Direction)The Average Directional Index (ADX) and its directional indicators ($+DI$ and $-DI$) are key to confirming the strength and direction of the move.Directional Confirmation: The EMA crossover must be confirmed by the appropriate directional index. For a buy, the $+DI$ should be above the $-DI$. For a sell, the $-DI$ should be above the $+DI$.Trend Strength ( NYSE:ADX $): A rising NYSE:ADX $ (typically above 20 or 25) suggests the current trend has sufficient momentum, making the signal more reliable.3. Volume Filter (Conviction)Adding a Volume filter ensures that the price movement accompanying the EMA crossover is supported by significant trading activity.Confirmation: A strong signal (buy or sell) is often accompanied by above-average volume. This suggests that market participants are actively supporting the move, adding conviction to the trade.4. Supertrend (Overall Trend Confirmation)The Supertrend indicator is based on the Average True Range (ATR) and is excellent for identifying the dominant market trend.Trend Alignment: The EMA crossover signal should align with the Supertrend's current signal. For a buy signal, the price should be above the Supertrend line (green). For a sell signal, the price should be below the Supertrend line (red). This helps ensure you are trading with the prevailing trend.📈 Why This is a Powerful CombinationYour indicator is essentially a multi-stage confirmation system:Speed (7/21 EMA): Generates a fast, responsive signal.Momentum (ADX DI): Confirms the direction and strength of the signal.Conviction (Volume): Validates the signal with market participation.Safety/Trend (Supertrend): Ensures the trade is in the direction of the long-term trend.The Informative Panel is a great feature, as it simplifies the decision-making process by summarizing the findings of all these components—e.g., "BUY: EMA Crossover $\checkmark$, +DI > -DI $\checkmark$, High Volume $\checkmark$, Supertrend Green $\checkmark$."💡 Next Steps for RefinementTo finalize and test this indicator, you may want to consider:Parameter Optimization: The best settings for the ADX level (e.g., 20 vs. 25) and the Supertrend ATR parameters may need to be optimized for the specific asset (e.g., stocks, forex) and timeframe you are using.Exit Strategy: Since this primarily focuses on entries, define clear Stop-Loss (perhaps based on the Supertrend line or a recent swing low/high) and Take-Profit (e.g., a fixed Risk/Reward ratio or previous resistance/support levels) rules.Would you like to explore specific parameters for any of these components or look into ways to backtest your strategy?
Pine Script® indicator
by acgcapital
paigep.llc - SuperMA SuperMA is a multi-layered moving-average and candle-coloring system that combines SMA, EMA, and optional HMA logic to help traders visualize trend shifts, pullbacks, and momentum changes in a clean, structured way. The script includes multiple modules: trend-based moving averages, pullback signals, exit logic, and an optional HMA cross engine. 📌 Core Features 1. Full SMA + EMA Framework The indicator plots multiple moving averages (8, 9, 13, 20, 50, 200) using both SMA and EMA calculations. Each line automatically colors bullish or bearish based on its relationship to the 200-period baseline. Users can toggle SMAs and EMAs independently for clearer chart control. 2. Main Trend Entry & Exit Logic (8×200 and 8×20) Built-in crossover logic detects: Main Entry: SMA 8 crossing above/below EMA 200 Main Exit: SMA 8 and SMA 20 cross (with an option to choose which SMA is treated as the “fast” leg) A “first exit only” option allows the script to ignore additional exit signals until a new trend regime begins. 3. Pullback Module (20 SMA Interaction) Pullback entries and exits occur when price crosses the 20 SMA during existing trend conditions. This includes: Pullback entries through the 20 SMA Pullback exits back across the 20 SMA Labels and candle colors are available for all pullback events. 4. Optional HMA Cross Module A separate module allows traders to use two Hull Moving Averages (HMA) with customizable: Lengths Independent timeframes Line colors Cross-based entries and exits This module has its own events, labels, and optional candle coloring. 5. Advanced Candle Coloring System Candle coloring is layered in priority order, based on: Main trend entries Main exits HMA entries HMA exits Pullback entries Pullback exits Trend-only candles (based on SMA 8 relative to EMA 200) Users may also independently color wicks and borders. 6. Configurable Alerts (Fully Decoupled from Visuals) Alerts are available for all major events, including: Main Entries (8×200) Main Exits (8×20) Pullback Entries and Exits HMA Entries and Exits Bull or Bear Trend candles Any colored candle event Alerts can fire on bar close only or intrabar, depending on user preference. Use Cases SuperMA helps traders visualize: Trend direction using SMA/EMA structure Momentum shifts through HMA crosses Pullback zones around the 20 SMA Early regime transitions based on the 8×200 relationship Candle-level context through color-coded bars The indicator works across all markets and timeframes. ⚠️ Note This tool is for visual and analytical assistance only. It does not guarantee future performance and should be combined with additional analysis and risk management.
Pine Script® indicator
by paigepllc
1
Supertrend + DEMA Strategy ( customised & Switchable, Fixed TP)Supertrend line – a moving line that follows the price and shows whether the market is trending up or down. If the price goes above this line, it usually means the market is going up. If the price goes below, it usually means the market is going down. DEMA (Double Exponential Moving Average) – another line that smooths out price movements to spot trends more clearly. It calculates an average of prices but reacts faster than a normal moving average.
Pine Script® strategy
by drsawhneyG
QuantMotions - TPR Sentinel LineTPR Sentinel Line is an advanced adaptive Support/Resistance system that combines multi-layered trend analysis with a directional Time-Price Ratio (TPR) engine. The indicator dynamically builds a stabilized support or resistance line that adjusts to market volatility, trend strength, ATR expansion and contraction, and real-time slope changes. This creates a high-precision, self-adjusting trend barrier that acts as support in uptrends, resistance in downtrends, and a neutral anchor during sideways phases. Key Features ✔ Adaptive Trend Base - A composite trend model blending: - Kijun-style midpoint - Donchian midline - SMA & EMA smoothing This creates a stable baseline that reacts smoothly but reliably to structural trend shifts. ✔ Directional TPR Calculation The indicator measures slope across short, medium, and long trend windows, normalizes it with ATR, and determines: - Trend direction - Trend strength - Momentum quality ✔ Dynamic Support/Resistance Line Depending on trend direction: - In uptrends → the line becomes adaptive support - In downtrends → the line becomes adaptive resistance - In neutral phases → the line centers around the smoothed trend base A built-in lag factor prevents unrealistic jumps and keeps the level stable. ✔ Automatic Support/Resistance Zones The indicator expands the main line into upper and lower zones based on ATR and trend strength, creating a dynamic volatility envelope around the trend structure. ✔ Signals & Alerts - Support bounce - Resistance rejection - Breakouts above/below the dynamic line These events help identify high-probability continuation or reversal moments. ✔ Information Panel A real-time status table displays: - Trend direction - Trend strength - Current S/R level 🎯 Ideal For - Precision entries on pullbacks - Detecting trend shifts earlier - Identifying strong or weak trend phases - Adaptive take-profit and stop-loss zones - Filtering false breakouts 💡 Summary TPR Sentinel Line gives you a living, breathing support/resistance structure that evolves with the market. Instead of relying on static levels, you get a continuously adapting trend barrier that reflects real strength, real volatility, and real momentum. A powerful tool for traders who want structure, clarity, and trend confidence.
Pine Script® indicator
by Trading-Programmer
Adaptive ATR% Grid + SuperTrend + OrderFlipDescription: This indicator combines multiple technical analysis tools to identify key price levels and trading signals: ATR% Grid – automatic plotting of support and resistance levels based on current price and volatility (ATR). Useful for identifying potential targets and entry/exit zones. SuperTrend – a classic trend indicator with an adaptive ATR multiplier that adjusts based on average volatility. OrderFlip – identifies price reversal points relative to a moving average with ATR-based sensitivity, optionally filtered by OBV and DMI. MTF Confirmation – multi-timeframe trend verification using EMA to reduce false signals. Signal Labels – "LONG" and "SHORT" labels appear on the chart with an offset from the price for better visibility. JSON Alerts – ready-to-use format for automated alerts, including price, SuperTrend direction, Fair Zone, and ATR%. Features: Fully compatible with Pine Script v6 Lines and signals are fixed on the chart, do not shift with new bars Configurable grid, ATR, SuperTrend, and filter parameters Works with MTF analysis and classic indicators (OBV/DMI) Usage: Best used with additional indicators and risk management strategies. ATR% Grid is ideal for both positional trading and intraday setups. перевод на русский Описание: Этот индикатор объединяет несколько методов технического анализа для выявления ключевых уровней цены и сигналов на покупку/продажу: Сетка ATR% (ATR% Grid) – автоматическое построение уровней поддержки и сопротивления на основе текущей цены и волатильности (ATR). Позволяет видеть потенциальные цели и зоны входа/выхода. SuperTrend – классический трендовый индикатор с адаптивным множителем ATR, который корректируется на основе средней волатильности. OrderFlip – определение моментов разворота цены относительно скользящей средней с учетом ATR, с возможностью фильтрации по OBV и DMI. MTF-подтверждение – проверка направления тренда на нескольких таймфреймах с помощью EMA, чтобы снизить ложные сигналы. Сигнальные метки – на графике появляются "LONG" и "SHORT" с отступом от цены для наглядности. JSON Alerts – готовый формат для автоматических уведомлений, включающий цену, направление SuperTrend, Fair Zone и ATR%. Особенности: Поддержка Pine Script v6 Линии и сигналы закреплены на графике, не двигаются при обновлении свечей Настраиваемые параметры сетки, ATR, SuperTrend и фильтров Совместимость с MTF-анализом и классическими индикаторами OBV/DMI Рекомендации: Используйте в сочетании с другими индикаторами и стратегиями управления риском. Сетка ATR% отлично подходит для позиционной торговли и интрадей. ATR% Grid – automatic plotting of support and resistance levels based on current price and volatility (ATR). Useful for identifying potential targets and entry/exit zones. SuperTrend – a classic trend indicator with an adaptive ATR multiplier that adjusts based on average volatility.
Pine Script® indicator
by indexrate
Fibonacci Retrace + 50 EMA Hariss 369This indicator combines 3 concepts: Fibonacci retracement zones 50 EMA trend filter Price interaction with specific Fib zones to generate Buy/Sell signals Let’s break everything down in simple language. 1. Fibonacci Retracement Logic The script finds: Most recent swing high Most recent swing low Using these two points, it draws Fibonacci levels: Fibonacci Levels Used Level Meaning Calculation 0% Swing Low recentLow 38.2% Light retracement high - (range × 0.382) 50% Mid retracement high - (range × 0.50) 61.8% Deep retracement high - (range × 0.618) 100% Swing High recentHigh 🔍 Why only these levels? Because trading signals are generated based ONLY on:38.2%, 50%,61.8% These 3 levels define the golden retracement zones. 2. Trend Filter — 50 EMA A powerful rule: Trend Up (bullish) ➡️ Price > 50 EMA Trend Down (bearish) ➡️ Price < 50 EMA This prevents signals against the main trend. 3. BUY Conditions (Retracement + EMA) A BUY signal appears when: Price is above the 50 EMA (trend is up) Price retraces into the BUY ZONE: 🔵 BUY ZONE = between 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci i.e.,close >= Fib50 AND close <= Fib38.2 This means: Market is trending up Price corrected to a healthy retracement level Buyers are stepping back in 📘 Why this zone? This is a moderate retracement (not too shallow, not too deep). Smart money often enters at 38.2%–50% in a strong trend. 📘 BUY Signal Appears With: Green “BUY” label Green arrow below the candle 4. SELL Conditions (Retracement + EMA) A SELL signal appears when: Price is below the 50 EMA (trend is down) Price retraces upward into the SELL ZONE: 🔴 SELL ZONE = between 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci i.e.,close <= Fib50 AND close >= Fib61.8 This means: Market is trending down Price made a pullback Sellers regain control in the golden zone 📘 Why this zone? 50–61.8 retracement is the ideal bearish pullback level. 📘 SELL Signal Appears With: Red “SELL” label Red arrow above the candle 5. STOP-LOSS (SL) RULES For BUY trades, Place SL below 61.8% level.SL = Fib 61.8% OR more safe:SL = swing low (Fib 0%) For SELL trades Place SL above 38.2% level.SL = Fib 38.2% OR conservative: SL = swing high (Fib 100%) 6. TAKE-PROFIT (TP) RULES Based on common Fibonacci extensions. BUY Trade TP Options TP Level Meaning TP1 Return to 38.2% Quick scalping target TP2 Return to swing high Full trend target TP3 Breakout above swing high Trend continuation Practical suggestion: TP1 = 1× risk TP2 = 2× risk TP3 = trailing stop SELL Trade TP Options TP Level Meaning TP1 Return to 61.8% Moderate bounce TP2 Return to swing low Trend target TP3 Break below swing low Trend continuation 7. Recommended Trading Plan (Simple) BUY PLAN Price > 50 EMA (uptrend) Enter at BUY signal in 38.2–50% zone SL at 61.8% TP at swing high or structure break SELL PLAN Price < 50 EMA (downtrend) Enter at SELL signal in 50–61.8% zone SL above 38.2% TP at swing low 🟩 Summary (Very Easy to Remember) 🔵 BUY Trend: above 50 EMA Zone: between 50% and 38.2% SL: below 61.8% TP: swing high 🔴 SELL Trend: below 50 EMA Zone: between 50% and 61.8% SL: above 38.2% TP: swing low
Pine Script® indicator
by Hariss369
Multi MAThis TradingView indicator displays four customizable moving averages on your price chart: two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and two Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The default settings show a 10-period EMA (aqua), 21-period EMA (orange), 50-period SMA (green), and 200-period SMA (red), which are commonly used timeframes for trend analysis. Each moving average can be individually toggled on or off, and their lengths and colors are fully adjustable through the indicator settings. The EMAs react more quickly to price changes while the SMAs provide smoother, more gradual trend indicators, making this useful for identifying support/resistance levels and trend direction. Traders often watch for crossovers between these moving averages as potential entry or exit signals, with the 50/200 SMA cross being particularly significant as the "golden cross" or "death cross."
Pine Script® indicator
by OneMorningStar1
VWolf – Apex GateOverview VWolf – Apex Gate is a trend-continuation system that blends a Pivot-weighted Supertrend (PVT ST) with an optional **Normal Supertrend** trigger, all **gated by a 200-EMA directional filter. The strategy’s risk controls are volatility-aware—**stops and targets scale by ATR**, and quantity is computed from a fixed **% risk per trade**. Clear **Backtest / Forwardtest** modes with date windows let you validate on segmented datasets before committing to live use. Recommended Use - **Markets:** High-liquidity instruments (indices, large-cap equities, liquid FX and major crypto pairs) where trends and pullbacks are clean. - **Timeframes:** 15m–1h for active intraday; 4h–1D for swing. Lower timeframes may benefit from stricter EMA gating and slightly wider ATR stops. - **Workflow:** 1. Start with **Backtest** to set baseline ATR/EMA parameters. 2. Move to **Forwardtest** to confirm generalization. 3. Consider walk-forward or multi-symbol rotation to assess robustness. Strengths & Precautions Strengths - **Dual engine** (PVT ST + Normal ST) improves signal quality; the **EMA gate** screens counter-trend noise. - **ATR-native** stops/targets standardize risk across regimes/instruments. - **Capital-proportional sizing** preserves account geometry and smooths drawdowns. - **Clear test segmentation** supports objective evaluation. Precautions - **Whipsaw risk** in tight ranges: widen ATR multipliers, enable the EMA gate, or require co-confirmation. - **Supertrend-anchored stops** can expand in volatility spikes; ensure **% risk** remains within tolerance. - **One-position policy** avoids stacking risk but forgoes scaling into strong trends; advanced users may prefer add-on frameworks outside this baseline. Conclusion VWolf – Apex Gate seeks to enter shortly after **regime flips**, demanding alignment between a **pivot-aware Supertrend** and (optionally) a **classic Supertrend**, while an **EMA gate** enforces directional discipline. With **ATR-driven** stops/targets and **fixed-fraction** sizing, the system adapts naturally to changing volatility. Use the **Backtest** window to dial ranges and the **Forwardtest** window to prove durability on unseen data. For best results, tailor ATR multipliers and the EMA gate to your instrument’s structure and your personal drawdown tolerance.
Pine Script® strategy
by VWolf-Trading
5 MA Length Custom [wjdtks255]Indicator Title: 5 MA Length Custom This indicator is a minimalist tool designed for pure trend visualization across five user-defined periods using Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). It contains no built-in signals or dynamic features—it serves strictly as a trend filter and confirmation layer. Key Features and Customization The indicator plots five fixed-color, fixed-thickness moving average lines. Only the Length (period) of each MA can be changed in the settings, offering clean, focused market analysis. MA 1 (Default 5): Immediate price action. MA 2 (Default 20): Short-term momentum. MA 3 (Default 60): Key Mid-term Trend Line. MA 4 (Default 40): Proxy for the standard Bollinger Band Center Line. MA 5 (Default 120): Major Long-term Trend. 🧭 Trading Strategy: MA Filtered Reversion This strategy uses the MA hierarchy for trend filtering and bias confirmation when executing trades based on an external signal indicator (e.g., a volatility/reversal signal like BB OPT EN). 🟢 Long Bias Confirmation (Buy) The short-term trend must support the mid-term trend. This is confirmed when MA 2 (20) is positioned above MA 3 (60). When this alignment occurs, you should only take external Buy signals (reversal signals) for higher probability trades. 🔴 Short Bias Confirmation (Sell) The short-term trend must align with the bearish direction. This is confirmed when MA 2 (20) is positioned below MA 3 (60). When this alignment occurs, you should only take external Sell signals (reversal signals) for higher probability trades.
Pine Script® indicator
by wjdtks255
200 Week MA Extensions (Crypto Currently Strategy)Bitcoin 200 Week MA Extensions The 200-week moving average has never been breached in Bitcoin's history, making it one of the most reliable indicators for identifying absolute market bottoms. This indicator plots the 200 Week MA along with percentage extensions above it to help identify potential cycle tops and key resistance levels during bull markets. What is the 200 Week MA? The 200-week simple moving average is the average closing price of Bitcoin over the past 200 weeks (approximately 3.8 years). It's a ultra-long-term trend indicator that: Has never been broken to the downside in Bitcoin's entire history Acts as the ultimate floor for Bitcoin price during bear markets Rises steadily over time, reflecting Bitcoin's long-term growth trajectory Moves slowly, making it a stable reference point for market cycles Key Components: 200 Week MA - Blue Line (Base Level) The foundation line that has historically marked absolute bottoms Currently around $62,000 (and rising ~$500-800 per week) Touching this level has historically represented generational buying opportunities Last tested during the COVID crash (March 2020) and 2022 bear market +50% Extension - Green Line (1.5x the 200 Week MA) First major resistance zone above the base Often acts as support during healthy bull market corrections Historically a comfortable zone for accumulation in early bull markets +100% Extension - Yellow Line (2.0x the 200 Week MA) Double the 200 Week MA value Represents a well-developed bull market Often tested multiple times during mid-cycle consolidations Can act as strong resistance when first approached +150% Extension - Orange Line (2.5x the 200 Week MA) Advanced bull market territory Historically marks the acceleration phase of bull runs Breaking above this level often signals euphoric market conditions approaching +200% Extension - Red Line (3.0x the 200 Week MA) Triple the 200 Week MA value Extreme overextension zone Historically near or beyond previous cycle tops Suggests extreme caution and profit-taking considerations Historical Context: 2020-2021 Bull Market: March 2020: Price touched the 200 Week MA (~$5,000) - absolute bottom Throughout 2020: Price traded between +50% and +100% extensions Late 2020 - Early 2021: Price broke above +100%, accelerated to +150% April 2021 & November 2021: Price reached +200% extension area, marking local/cycle tops 2022 Bear Market: Price fell from +200% extension back toward the 200 Week MA June 2022: Price came within 10% of the 200 Week MA ($18,000) Bounce from near the 200 Week MA marked the bear market bottom 2023-2024 Recovery: Price recovered from near 200 Week MA back through the extension levels Each extension level acted as resistance, then support as bull market developed Current position relative to extensions helps gauge cycle maturity How to Use This Indicator: For Long-Term Accumulation: At 200 Week MA: Maximum conviction buying zone - historically has never failed +0% to +50%: Excellent accumulation zone, low risk relative to reward +50% to +100%: Good accumulation zone during bull market dips Above +100%: Consider reducing accumulation, focus on holding or taking profits For Profit Taking: Approaching +100%: Consider taking initial profits (10-20% of position) +100% to +150%: Take incremental profits as price advances +150% to +200%: Increase profit-taking pace significantly Above +200%: Maximum caution - historically unsustainable levels For Risk Management: Distance from 200 Week MA indicates market risk level Further above = higher risk, more extended, closer to top Closer to = lower risk, better value, closer to bottom Use extensions as profit-taking targets in bull markets Use extensions as re-entry targets during corrections For Cycle Timing: Bear Market: Price converges toward 200 Week MA Early Bull: Price in +0% to +50% range, building base Mid Bull: Price in +50% to +100% range, healthy growth Late Bull: Price in +100% to +150% range, acceleration Euphoric Top: Price at +150% to +200%+, extreme extension Key Insights: The 200 Week MA as Ultimate Support: Bitcoin has touched or approached this level during every major bear market It rises consistently (~$30,000 per year currently), creating a rising floor Breaking below would be unprecedented and signal a fundamental market structure change Provides enormous psychological and technical support Extension Levels as Resistance/Support: Bull markets often stall at each extension level before breaking through Once broken, extensions often flip from resistance to support Rejections from higher extensions can signal local or cycle tops Corrections back to lower extensions offer re-entry opportunities Diminishing Returns: Each cycle's top has formed at progressively lower extension multiples 2013: ~10x the then-200WMA 2017: ~5x the then-200WMA 2021: ~3x the then-200WMA Suggests future tops may not reach +200% extension (market maturation) Best Practices: Do: Use the 200 Week MA as your ultimate risk-off level for long-term holdings Scale into positions as price approaches the 200 Week MA Take profits incrementally as price rises through extensions View corrections back to lower extensions as opportunities Combine with other on-chain metrics (MVRV, Realized Price) for confirmation Don't: Expect the 200 Week MA to provide perfect entry timing (you might be early) Assume price will reach +200% extension every cycle Sell all holdings at first extension level during bull markets Ignore price action and volume when making decisions Panic if price approaches the 200 Week MA (historically the best time to buy) Why This Indicator Works: The 200 Week MA represents nearly 4 years of price data, which: Encompasses approximately one full Bitcoin halving cycle Smooths out all short and medium-term volatility Reflects Bitcoin's true long-term adoption and growth trend Provides a slow-moving, stable reference that doesn't whipsaw The extension levels work because: They create objective profit-taking targets based on historical overextension They account for the rising base (200 Week MA) over time They've proven reliable across multiple market cycles They help remove emotion from buy/sell decisions Technical Notes: Calculations performed on weekly timeframe data for consistency The indicator displays correctly on any chart timeframe (Daily, 4H, etc.) Uses lookahead_on to prevent repainting and show consistent historical values All extension levels update automatically as the 200 Week MA rises Best viewed on logarithmic scale for full historical perspective Important Reminders: Past performance does not guarantee future results - while the 200 Week MA has never been breached, future market conditions could differ Market maturation - as Bitcoin matures, cycle dynamics may change Black swan events - unexpected macro events could temporarily break historical patterns Not financial advice - this is an educational tool, always do your own research Recommended Usage: Best Timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly charts Pair With: MVRV Ratio, Realized Price, Stock-to-Flow, Fear & Greed Index Update Frequency: Weekly (the base 200 Week MA only changes weekly) Chart Type: Logarithmic scale recommended for full historical view Strategy Example: Buy aggressively when price is within 20% of 200 Week MA Hold and accumulate between 200WMA and +50% extension Begin scaling out profits at +100% extension (20% of position) Scale out more at +150% extension (40% of position) Significant profit-taking at +200% extension (remaining position) Wait for next cycle and repeat This indicator provides a simple, objective, and historically reliable framework for navigating Bitcoin's market cycles. By respecting the 200 Week MA as the ultimate floor and using the extensions as profit-taking guides, investors can remove emotion and develop disciplined strategies for long-term success.
Pine Script® indicator
by NextTuesday
BTC Key Support Levels (True Market Mean, Realized Price, MVRV)Bitcoin Key Onchain Support Levels + Moving Averages This indicator combines critical Bitcoin on-chain metrics with traditional technical analysis to identify key support levels and price trends. It's designed to help traders and investors understand Bitcoin's fundamental value zones and market positioning. Key Metrics Included: On-Chain Support Levels: True Market Mean (Active Coins) - Blue Line Calculates investor capital (Realized Cap minus Thermocap) divided by active supply (coins moved in last year) Represents the average cost basis of active market participants Historically acts as strong support during bull markets True Market Mean (Free Float) - Green Line Same investor capital calculation but divided by free float supply Provides a more conservative support estimate Useful for identifying extreme value zones Realized Price - Purple Line The average price at which all bitcoins last moved on-chain Represents the aggregate cost basis of all Bitcoin holders Historical major support level during bear markets Delta Realized Price - Red Line Realized Price minus its all-time average Helps identify when Bitcoin is trading below or above its historical average cost basis Useful for spotting macro trend shifts MVRV 0sd (Mean MVRV) - Yellow Line Price level where Market Value equals the historical average MVRV ratio times Realized Value Represents "fair value" based on Bitcoin's historical valuation patterns Strong dynamic support/resistance level Traditional Moving Averages: 50 Day SMA - White Dotted Line Short-term trend indicator Common entry/exit signal for swing traders 200 Day SMA - White Dashed Line Long-term trend indicator Classic bull/bear market dividing line 50 Week SMA - Orange Dotted Line Medium-term trend on weekly timeframe Historically strong support in bull markets, some traders use as dividing line between bull and bear markets 200 Week SMA - Orange Dashed Line Long-term weekly trend Very rarely breached; considered ultimate bottom indicator representing the deepest possible value for long term investors How to Use This Indicator: For Long-Term Investors: Look for price approaching the Red (Delta Realized Price) or Purple (Realized Price) lines during corrections as potential accumulation zones The 200 Week SMA (orange dashed) has historically marked cycle bottoms When price is above the Blue line (True Market Mean - Active), the bull market is typically healthy For Traders: Use the moving averages for trend confirmation and entry/exit signals The Yellow line (MVRV 0sd) often acts as dynamic support/resistance Watch for price interactions with the Blue line during consolidations Cross-referencing on-chain levels with moving averages provides high-probability trade setups Market Cycle Context: Bull Market: Price typically stays above the Yellow and Blue lines Bear Market: Price often trades between Purple (Realized Price) and Red (Delta Realized Price) Extreme Value: Price near or below Red line and 200 Week SMA Overheated: Price significantly above all on-chain metrics Technical Notes: This indicator uses real Bitcoin on-chain data including: Realized Cap from CoinMetrics Supply and active supply metrics from Glassnode Block mining data and transaction fees Thermocap calculation (cumulative security spend) All calculations are performed on daily data and maintain consistency across different chart timeframes. The on-chain metrics provide fundamental value floors that complement traditional technical analysis. Best Practices: Use on logarithmic scale for better visualization across Bitcoin's entire price history Most effective on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes Combine with volume analysis and other indicators for confirmation On-chain levels are slow-moving; don't expect daily precision Historical support levels are not guarantees of future performance
Pine Script® indicator
by NextTuesday
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