DBC/Commodities-LONGNarratives: Supply-Demand Shocks (think Climate) / Strong-Increasing Dollar / US Macro, Longby MikeSans111
Commodities at a Crossroads (Pt 2)After a strong rally in early 2019, commodities seem to have taken a breather in recent sessions. Since mid-January 2019, due to increased global macro headwinds, as well as slowing economic activity in Europe and China, commodities (DBC as a proxy) have been treading water against key safe haven assets such as the US Dollar (Part 1) and US treasuries (above). As can be seen in Part 1, when commodities are measured against the US Dollar, the price ratio (DBC/UUP) failed to move higher in recent sessions, and is struggling to re-test its 20-Day EMA (Green) and 50-Day EMA (Blue). Moreover, in the chart above, a similar pattern emerges when commodities are compared against US Treasuries. The price ratio between commodities and US Treasuries (DBC/IEF) moved higher since early 2019, but failed to break higher above its 50-Day EMA and is also struggling to clear this important hurdle. It seems that commodities are at a crossroads at the moment, in that the asset class is trying to break its 50-Day EMAs against the US Dollar and US Treasuries respectively. If commodities can break through these levels, expect the asset class to move higher in the short-term. If not, or if global economic indicators do not improve over the next few weeks, expect more downside in the near future. by EconomicsGlobal1
Commodities at a Crossroads? (Part 1)Commodities vs US Dollar: As can be seen in in the chart above, when commodities are measured against the US Dollar, the price ratio (DBC/UUP) failed to move higher in recent sessions, and is struggling to re-test its 20-Day EMA (Green) and 50-Day EMA (Blue). See Commodities at a Crossroads? (Part 2) for our commentaryby EconomicsGlobal1
COMMODITY TRACKER ETF BUY + HOLDIn current market conditions we are expecting higher volatility in equities due to ongoing issues, during times like this diversification is key. See commodity tracking fund index above for security + growth over coming months Expecting to see $18 in the near future I am still dollar cost averaging in equities but adding this index to portfolio is key to balancing gains going forward...Longby MarubozuTrader1
DBC - More Odd Charts - Commodity Drop Underway?Crude oil has been getting absolutely walloped for weeks now, having lost over a third of its value recently. Looking at the chart of USOIL I recently posted, it seems to me we are definitely primed for a bounce. The bounce will ultimately fail, but we’re really, really oversold at this point. One thing I noticed is that the commodity ETF, symbol DBC, has actually cracked the channel which has been in place for years. Like I said above, I think oil will bounce, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see DBC hit resistance in the form of that now-broken channel. DBC is the basket of commoditiesShortby RHTrading1
How 'bout them Apples... Or Corn, Cattle, Cotton, Gold, Coffee. Based on my analysis I see commodities markets offering investors above average returns heading into the next decade. During the expansion of our economy from 2008, prices in the commodity market have been fairly low and producing dismal returns. This is ranging from several factors such as energy prices falling, subsidized farming, the price of precious metals collapsing, and even cyclical trends. Which we will cover later... Investing in commodities can be difficult because it covers a range of different industries not just one. Often time commodities are broken down into two groups: Hard Commodities (Gold, Silver, Rubber, Crude oil, etc.) these types of commodities are often mined or extracted from our beautiful earth. Soft commodities on the other hand are usually grown (Coffee, oranges, corn, wheat, sugar. Soybeans, etc.) Because commodities range from different sources it makes capitalizing on the investment tricky due of the prices fluctuation of goods (i.e. sugar may go up while, oil prices decline.) However, there is one indicator that can help gauge the movement of all commodities classes and that’s inflation. Inflation effects all good that can be purchase on the market, not just one- therefore leading to a rise in commodities as a whole. As a consumer, who likes inflation? When the price of goods rise it can severely dampen ones pay check. Unless, you shop at Whole Foods then you are screwed at the register before and after inflation. If you’re an investor in commodities on the other hand, rising inflation can be advantageous as one would expect a higher return as the prices of consumer goods rise. Taking a glance at the chart, we can see over the past decade as inflation began its accent from 2008 the rise in the commodity index has done the same. It is also worth noting, this is NOT a default action, but more often than none- throughout history commodity prices have moved well alongside inflation. Another factor to consider is the current administration’s stance on trade and protectionism. Bringing back jobs from overseas into the United States will definitely increase the prices of goods because of the higher production cost state side. Again- great for commodity investors and producers, bad for the overall economic well-being. As I mentioned earlier, price cycles can also play a larger role when looking to invest in commodities. Though it is heavily debated on whether cycles hold any merit in commodities-we have seen the price of commodities rise and fall at precise time intervals. Through my research I've noticed Commodity prices usually move in 10 to 15-year price cycles. The Peaks and troughs of prices have been fairly consistent and are set to gain ground in 2018. However, super cycles in commodities are nearly 50 years long and we are also seeing both short and long term cycles harmonize. Usually in this occurrence we see a sharp uptick in commodity prices that end up lasting for decades. Name one thing that can get up that fast after 50 years…I’ll wait. While there this is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to complex markets such as commodities. We believe there is empirical evidence that tells us now is the time for this asset class. by gardua243
Following the trend downFollowing a pretty clear trend down, I expect to find near term support, retrace and follow throughShortby SunThief2
Breakout on Powershare DB commodity ETFAfter the big buy volume in Feb, they try to shake the bulls off, then slowly creating uptrend. It started to break out this week on ascending triangle (blue lines), and previous price level from Jan. (orange line), and uptrend channel mid0line (green lines) and there’s also a weekly trend line from back in June 2017 (not shown). As of now, MACD is positive, StochRSI up, McClellan Oscillator in uptrend. We could see a potential run to $18+ here.Longby Sygyzy3
Break out on Powershares DB Commodity ETFAfter the big buy volume in Feb, they try to shake the bulls off, then slowly creating uptrend. It started to break out this week on ascending triangle (blue lines), and previous price level from Jan. (orange line), and uptrend channel mid0line (green lines) and there’s also a weekly trend line from back in June 2017 (not shown). As of now, MACD is positive, StochRSI up, McClellan Oscillator in uptrend. We could see a potential run to $18+ here.Longby Sygyzy3
DBC based on technical analysis of stock selectionDBC based on technical analysis of stock selection, week macd Jincha, but also heavy volume, so to buy on the approach Exit mode: day ma20 below and bend downLongby fjufirefox0
Commodities ready to goThis commodity basket ETF shows a grinding decline followed by a couple of years of basing. A triangle breakout has occurred with a backtest underway. Good reward:risk trade targeting $20 minimum. Interesting to see commodity prices picking up in this age of "no inflation" :)Longby thutch1
Commodity fund long $DBCThe recent commodities price recovery have given these etfs a push, this etf has just broken a strong resistance level, so it could continue higherLongby SIUSHINGTO1
Some pull back is possible, look for buy signal lowerHeikin-Ashi signals some pause. If it retraces to 14,90-15,05 zone, look for a buy signal in line with the bullish trend! DO NOT short it!by Kumowizard4
$DBC W,D H&SW: 2017 trend line broken w/ RSI over 50, MAs crossing for up, uptrend confirmed D: Head and Shoulders in progressLongby eccenocte2
$DBC - Buy signal. Increase commodity exposure!Heikin-Ashi buy signal from support. Initial stop at 14,50. Longby Kumowizard3
$DBC Commodities Mean Reversion for 2016?I will check this chart monthly in 2016, but it's possible we do see some sort of mean reversion towards $16-$18.by ctpelot0
$DBC - Working Lower This is the PowerShares DB Commodity Index. With more than 40% of the index weighted in different forms of oil (Light, Brent, Heating, and RBOB), it resembles the charts of crude and Brent we follow but with a more bearish elliott wave count. Circle wave iv may be underway (crude is up 2.5% right now) and I have thrown up a cluster of Fibs in order to identify a potential stopping zone before the downward trend resumes. Clearly and without a shadow of a doubt, commodities have not bottomed. Shortby FutureMeDead1
Commodities as a 'Risk Asset' Play?It used to be that commodities were one of the preferred 'risk asset' plays - particularly when volatility was prized pre-Great Financial Crisis. Now, as the S&P 500 moves on record highs, commodity aggregate indexes are hitting multi-year lows. The Powershares/DB ETF here hit a series low (back to 2006).Shortby JohnKicklighter5
Inflation is creeping back up.A weaker dollar is leading to a breakout of the DBC.Longby chrisbrecher110