Here is my latest technical analysis for the S&P. Been stuck under the midline of the red down channel since May. With a gap down today and the midline and black trend line squeezing price, it looks like the market is getting ready to make its move Friday or Monday.
I see two key levels that we are likely headed towards. We could rally up to the the resistance...
IMO it is because the S&P is testing the center line of the purple channel as support. This trend line has been the core support for the S&P since 2009. You can clearly see this support in the chart. If the bull rally is to survive, then it needs to hold this line. What you are seeing right now is a classic case of the algorithms and hedge funds fighting over...
Weakness this past week has brought the S&P down to test support for the green channel. A good finish to mega cap earnings this week could keep us in the channel. It is not obvious how high we could go, but we could get a good bounce and tread water until the next earnings period. However, any more average or worse earnings will send this thing lower down to at...
Below 0.1070 supports a bearish trend direction. Emerging market equities are likely to underperform Developed market equities.
Downside price momentum supports the bearish bias.
RSI leaves some room for downside potential.
Expect a pullback before the leg downwards might continue.
An M-top pattern also supports a bearish trend direction.
Since 2004
25 --> declines touch the 200 day SMA
8 --> continued into a larger correction
17 --> rebounded to some level
8/25 = 32% chance of bearish
17/25 = 68% chance bullish
Looking at the trend since 2004, it may take a week or two at these levels before it chooses its direction.
If I had to guess, this could be a likely match to today's place in the...
dec 13 marks 90 weeks from march 23 2020 bottom.
11%-20% declines is what i will be looking for.
look for top of square of 52 as resistance around the 478-481 area.
important weekly angles are being broken. be careful as a lot is now pointing to this being more than just a simple correction.
there is no doubt that taxing hurts economic growth more than it helps. the bull market of the 80s didnt start till regan lowered taxes after seeing the 70s with high tax rates.
santa might bring lumps of coal this winter.... no pun...
Here is a simple analysis using 4 moving averages and a regression channel start on March 24, 2020. VWMA 20 days (shown as a band with SMA 20 in the middle), SMA 50, 100, and 200 days.
The S&P is at a make or break moment. It broke below the regression channel on Monday and is hang on the edge of it today. You can also see that it found support on the 100 day...
Lost linear regression channel (black) that started on March 24, 2020. Still in the regression channel from Dec 26, 2018 to Feb 19, 2020. Will it bounce back up to regain black channel, or use the blue channel as support? That noticeable unfilled gap around 400 is still waiting to be filled, which could come into play if it loses the blue channel.
4H
This is my latest and best attempt at an Elliott wave count for the S&P. Rather than just guess at waves, I prefer to use fib levels to help identify them. Assuming that I have wave 1 correct, then I see a wave 3 with impulse that is closing in on it final subwave 5. That hopefully should bring us to a solid correction for a wave 4 before making a long push for...
This recent strong rally looks a lot like the one in August to me. Both the cRSI and PMO seem to be indicating that some level of pull back is inbound.
1D
2h
Pattern looks very similar. Let's see if we get a move up or down tomorrow to validate.
And because I have a million different ideas on these charts.
And one more
Just trying to take a look at the bigger picture today. I see a nice rising wedge pattern off the March 2020 low. I also see a fan pattern that does a great job of defining both the important low and high peaks since 2017.
4h lcose up
motive wave fib levels
Just in case this week is the end of motive wave 3, we could see a max pull back to around 0.382.
NYSE Arca
