Impending bearish pushBear: looking at the adx indicator, we are very low on trend strength on the daily and 4h timeframe of AMEX:SPY . There is room for some more upside to possibly test ath around 652. I believe it will go up to test before it has a pullback again but that being said, adx is low, there are many touches of bearish divergence (lower rsi peaks : higher price points), and we have not seen much drastic big candles in a while. Its important to note that rate cuts are ALREADY priced in. We are forward looking ALREADY. I do not think it impossible that we see a pullback around rate decision or sooner. The current immediate 4h and 1h trend is steep (showing possible exhaustion incoming) especially with all the indicators showing momentum consolidating or slowing down - which could be a possible reversal signal. WATCH ath and the immediate reaction in the days coming.
Bull: Fib extension gives upward price points at 653.52 and even up at 659.09. I think its more possible to combine bearish with bullish thesis and say we will hit the 653.52 then drop- we might just bounce after the drop (which may not be very big). We are in a unique environment with policy and an administration that favors the biggest players in our market. It's silly to expect any SIGNIFICANT downside unless something fundamental *global or political happens. I see pullbacks but nothing like April.
simply put, we are going up there's no stopping that the market is A-symmetrical. However, there are points where I can predict high probability exhaustion and reversals in the coming days and week. aka pullback incoming. Watch all time highs and the adx once it starts to curve up.
