In-depth trading ideas

Discover detailed market analysis from traders. See how others approach this instrument, compare different strategies, and discover perspectives that can shape your own view.

SPY Trading Opportunity! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 754.88 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 745.89 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK

by AnabelSignals

SPY DAILY-JULY 9TH 2026 This is the price action for SPY. If you have any questions ,feel free to leave a message. I have explained in depth price action here with how the future anticipated trends would be. NOTE :DO NOT TRADE BLINDLY

08:54

by THECHAARTIST

S&P 500 (SPY) | Market Outlook | Friday, July 10, 2026 The S&P 500 enters Friday's session with investors closely monitoring U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, Treasury yields, and global geopolitical developments. While market sentiment remains constructive, elevated valuations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could keep intraday volatility elevated. Key Themes 🇺🇸 U.S. macroeconomic data and interest rate expectations. 🏦 Federal Reserve commentary and bond yield movements. 🌍 Global geopolitical tensions and trade developments. 💰 Institutional positioning ahead of the weekend. 🟢 Bullish: A sustained move above resistance may attract momentum buying and extend the uptrend. 🔴 Bearish: Failure to hold key support could trigger profit-taking and defensive positioning before the weekend. 🟣 Daily TimeFrame Chart Indicates Symmetrical Traingle Pattern formation and supply zones above. Check Below Chart Trade with confirmation, not anticipation. Let price action lead the way. Educational analysis only. Not financial or investment advice.

by globuscapitas

$SPY bulls will probably fail, here is why:AMEX:SPY broke out of the triangle today. A new all-time high is now within reach and will likely act as a magnet for price. Longer term, however, I still think the bulls are likely to fail. The main reason is that these yellow boxes have historically been retested when they form late in a trend. We are clearly late in trend, so even if we push higher first, my longer-term outlook remains bearish. AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ

by Swing_Trader_Saan

Markets Will DOUBLE - then TRIPLE in the next 20 years.Are you ready for what's next? I see so many analysts posting content that flips from bullish to bearish every few days. It must be impossible for people to try to trade efficiently when you are always trying to catch trends that have happened already. In my opinion, the trick to staying ahead of the market trends is to have incredible analytical research and specialized tools to help everyone really understand what is happening in the US/Global markets. That is why I have spent decades building specialized tools, Custom Indexes, and other utilities to help me plan my trades based on information derived directly from price. In this video, I show you some of my custom indicators, a specialized Fibonacci modeling system, and try to share with you why I believe the US markets will first DOUBLE, then experience a moderate 25-35% pullback, then move into an incredible 100% rally before the end of 2028. The reality is this. If you want to stay ahead of the markets, you must find tools, techniques, and reliable indicators that can help you really understand what price is going to do. No one is 100% perfect at predicting price, but I like to think my specialized tools/technique give me a superior advantage over others. I'm not chasing trends "after they happen". I'm usually 3-10+ days ahead of the markets in most cases. Either way, I hope you enjoy this video and that is pushes you to consider trying to find the best solutions for your trading. There are some very good tools available to help you. You just need to spend the time to investigate what works best for you. Remember, right now, the markets (SPY) wants to rally above $845, then try to break above $911. There is no reason to consider these other "the market is topping" predictions. The data says the markets want to rally higher. Get some

44:02

Objective short on the SPX On spy at 749-750 is strong resistance. It looks like a B wave is completing. I'm wrong if they get over the recent highs. Other markets are also at resistance, but we could go a bit higher first. If we drop from here it may be a nice move down to 7250 area.

03:38

SPY 760 Breakout or 750 Retest? July 13 SPY is coming into the week with the daily trend still bullish, but price is sitting directly below an important resistance zone around 755.65–760. The 15-minute chart shows a strong move from 748.10 into 755.65, followed by tight consolidation near the highs. That is constructive, but I would not chase calls directly into several stacked GEX resistance levels. For me, the main question is whether SPY can accept above 755–756 and continue toward 758–760, or reject and rotate back toward the 753–750 support zone. Daily Chart The daily structure remains bullish with price continuing to form higher lows above the rising trendline from the April low. SPY recently recovered from the 720 area and is now retesting the upper part of the larger rising structure. The previous high around 758.45 is the first major daily resistance. A daily close above 758.45–760 would confirm another breakout and could allow SPY to continue making new highs. The larger trend remains healthy while price stays above the recent rising support structure. The first major daily support is around 720, followed by 695. The larger chart would only begin showing meaningful weakness if those areas start failing. 15-Minute Chart The 15-minute chart shows SPY recovering from 748.10 and trending higher into 755.65. After reaching the high, price began consolidating around 754.80–755 instead of selling off sharply. That tells me buyers are still holding the move, but they have not cleared resistance yet. The immediate pivot is 755. A clean break above 755.65–756 could push SPY toward 757, 758 and the stronger 759–760 resistance area. If SPY continues rejecting near 755–756 and loses 753, the next downside test would be the overnight level around 751.88 and then 750. Key Levels Resistance: 755, 755.65–756, 757, 758, 758.45, 759, 760 Support: 754, 753, 751.88, 750, 748.10, 746, 745.59, 740 GEX Positioning The GEX chart shows several call levels stacked closely between 755 and 760. The first nearby level is 755, followed by 756, 757 and 758. The largest visible call concentration appears around 759, making 758–760 the most important upside resistance zone. Because GEX is positive, SPY could remain pinned near 755 unless buyers bring enough volume to push through the call walls. This can create slow movement, failed breakouts and premium decay while price stays inside the range. The main support and high-volume level is around 750. That makes 750 the most important downside pivot. As long as SPY stays above it, the broader intraday structure remains constructive. Below 750, the next put levels are around 746 and 740. A confirmed break under 750 could allow volatility to increase as price moves away from the positive gamma area. Bullish Scenario For the bullish setup, I want SPY to hold above 754–755 and break 755.65–756 with volume. A 15-minute close above 756 followed by a successful retest would give buyers a better chance of pushing toward 757 and 758. The stronger breakout confirmation would come above 758.45. Above 758.45, I will watch 759 and 760. If SPY accepts above 760, the market could begin another price-discovery move into new highs. Bearish Scenario For the bearish setup, I will watch for repeated rejection between 755.65 and 758. If SPY rejects this area and then loses 754, the short-term momentum would begin weakening. Below 753, I will watch the overnight level around 751.88 and then the main 750 high-volume level. A confirmed 15-minute close below 750 could open the move toward 748.10 and 746. If 746 fails, the next downside levels would be 745.59 and the larger 740 put wall. Trade Considerations SPY is currently trading directly below several GEX resistance levels, so I would avoid chasing the first move above 755. For calls, I want to see a clean break, hold and retest above 755.65–756. For puts, I want to see rejection from 756–758 followed by a loss of 753 and 751.88. The opening range and VWAP will be important. If SPY breaks resistance but immediately loses VWAP, the move could become a failed breakout. If SPY pulls back but continues holding above VWAP and 753, buyers may still be building for another attempt. Options Outlook The chart shows IV Rank around 28.6 and average implied volatility near 15.1, so SPY options are not carrying extremely elevated volatility. However, positive GEX and the closely stacked levels between 755 and 760 could still create slow price movement and 0DTE premium decay. The cleaner directional opportunity may come after SPY confirms above 756 or breaks below 750 rather than while it remains trapped between those levels. Conclusion SPY remains bullish on the daily chart, but price is approaching an important resistance cluster. Above 756, I will watch 757, 758, 759 and 760. Below 753, I will watch 751.88, 750, 748.10 and 746. The main decision range this week is 750–760. A confirmed break above 760 could continue the larger uptrend, while losing 750 could create a deeper rotation toward the lower GEX support levels.

by BullBearInsights

SPY Week of 7/13 SPY has been grinding higher inside a rising channel, but price is now pressing into the key 755.59–760.40(ATH) resistance zone. The chart is showing a tight consolidation just below ATH territory, which tells me the market is still biased bullish, but also very likely to keep chopping and teasing both sides before choosing a real direction. I've mapped out three scenarios for the coming sessions: 🟢 Bullish Scenario If SPY can hold above 755.59 and cleanly break through 760.40, that opens the door for a push into fresh ATH territory. A strong reclaim above that level would likely trigger momentum continuation toward the 765+ area, with the trend channel still supporting higher highs. Global tension and uncertainty haven’t broken the uptrend yet, so bulls stay in control as long as price keeps making higher lows. 🔴 Bearish Scenario If SPY loses 754.89 and then 751.95, the market could start rolling back toward 745.57 and 740.71 support. A failure to hold that lower support zone would tell me the recent move was just a squeeze before a sharper retracement. In that case, 733 and even the high 720s come back into play fast. 🟡 Sideways Scenario (My Lean) This is the scenario that frustrates everyone. SPY likely continues to ping-pong between roughly 751.95 and 760.40, with 754.89 acting like the magnet in the middle while price teases ATH without committing. That kind of chop is brutal for options holders because theta decay and IV swings can wipe out premium even when the direction eventually stays bullish. My Outlook If I had to rank the probabilities today: 🟡 Sideways (my current lean) 🟢 Bullish breakout 🔴 Bearish I’m leaning sideways first, bullish second, and bearish last unless SPY loses the 751.95/745.57 support stack. If 760.40 gets reclaimed with follow-through, I’ll shift more aggressively bullish; if 751.95 breaks, the bearish case gets much more real. As always, the Heavy Diligence Options Signals Indicator will be my primary tool for entries and exits. While these scenarios provide the broader roadmap, the indicator is designed primarily for day trading on shorter timeframes, helping identify higher-probability Call and Put opportunities. Combining those signals with key technical levels helps improve risk management instead of simply guessing the next move. Disclaimer: This is only my interpretation of the current chart and is not financial advice. Always do your own research, wait for confirmation, and manage your risk before entering any trade.

by heavydiligence

Trump Golden Age pump loading $17 trillion in investments for america. Trump accounts for kids and adults. The AI, Quantum, Nuclear Fusion and Blockchain revolution is just beginning

Into the Close As we're winding down I do a quick update on SPY. A little higher into the close would not surprise me, but I still think tomorrow we'll break today's lows and go much further down into next week.

05:07

$SPY correction incoming of 10%+?Could we see a roughly 10-17% correction here? I think so. Price has been consolidating in a downtrend channel (or bull flag, depending on your interpretation of the pattern). However, with the new higher low today rejecting the top of the structure, my bias leans bearish. If we can see a break below the channel, then I think it's likely that we'll find support in the box around $680 or so. If we break below that, I think the max drawdown will be to $621. I've marked off key levels above and below. Invalidation of the idea would be a break above the highs. Let's see.

Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook - 09 JUL Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook Risk Index Current Market State: Short Term Slightly Bullish (downside risks remain) | Long Term Bullish The Risk Index currently suggests that the market has shifted back into a short to medium term risk on environment. However, geopolitical risks continue to present downside uncertainty, meaning volatility can return quickly if negative headlines emerge. Despite that, the longer term outlook remains firmly bullish. This proprietary oscillator, developed internally at UA CAPITAL, combines multiple macro parameters into a single sentiment framework. The same complex risk analysis process I manually used for years is now automated through this system, allowing us to read market sentiment objectively and without emotion in real time. As long as the longer term structure remains bullish, we will continue looking for buying opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At the same time, tactical shorts can still be considered from major supply zones whenever price confirms rejection. Scenarios / Prediction Long Scenario As long as price remains above 745, the path of least resistance continues to favor a move toward 750. Trigger: Retest of 745 followed by a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the level. Targets: 747.5 → 750 → 752 Invalidation: 1 hour bearish candle close below 744. Breakout Long Scenario If price produces a confirmed 1-hour bullish close above 752, a breakout continuation trade can be considered following a successful retest. Trigger: Retest of 752 followed by a bullish 1-hour candle close above the level. Targets: 755 → 758.5 Invalidation: 1 hour bearish candle close below 750. Short Scenario The 750–752 area represents the primary supply zone. If price reaches this region and produces a strong bearish rejection, short exposure can be considered. Trigger: Retest of the 750–752 supply zone followed by a strong 1-hour bearish candle close back below the level. Targets: 747 → 745 → 740 Invalidation: 1 hour bullish candle close above 752. Notice: Starting a fresh, high frequency track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities on TradingView. Moving forward, all institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week updates will be tracked consistently right here. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.

Another ABC The Market is rallying towards 749-750 in pre market, so it likely gets there by or after open. It looks like another ABC, so at 750 it's a good short entry (with a tight stop). This aligns with the QQQ's getting to their 18ma resistance at 721 and Gap fill area. The Vix will likely test it's breakout at 16.10. If we drop from here it should be swift and maybe done by early next week.

S&P 500 (SPY) | Today's Intraday Outlook S&P 500 (SPY) Breakout or Reversal at Key Resistance? The S&P 500 is trading near a critical intraday resistance after recovering from recent lows. Momentum remains positive, but buyers must break above resistance to confirm the next bullish leg. Bullish Scenario Breakout Above: Key intraday resistance Targets Target 1: 751 Target 2: 752 Target 3: 753 Confirmation: Strong hourly close with rising volume. Bearish Scenario Failure to break resistance followed by a close below immediate support could trigger profit booking. Targets Target 1: 747 Target 2: 746 Target 3: 745 Disclaimer This analysis is shared strictly for educational and informational purposes. It is not financial or investment advice. Always perform your own research, use proper risk management, and trade according to your own strategy. 🔔 Subscribe for daily market insights, swing trade setups, and institutional-style technical analysis. ❤️ Market Wisdom to Remember: ❤️ ⭐ Trade what you see, not what you assume ⭐ Follow the trend — it's your only true friend ⭐ The chart tells the real story — trust it ⭐ Emotions & assumptions have no place in trading ⭐ Capital protection comes first — always 💡 Your support matters! Like, comment, and follow to stay updated and motivated. Cheers & Trade Smart! 🚀

by globuscapitas

SPY Day Trade 7/10 (15-Minute Chart)Yesterday morning I shared this chart and mentioned I was leaning bullish for Monday's open, despite the chart looking a bit bearish. So far, that thesis has held up pretty well. With today's price action, I've updated the chart by adding a new light orange trendline along with a revised blue path to better reflect the current structure. The way I see it, SPY is now respecting this new ascending trendline, and as long as buyers continue defending it, I think there's still room for another push toward the upper resistance levels. That doesn't mean it'll be a straight shot higher—I'd actually expect plenty of chop along the way—but the structure continues to favor higher highs unless that trendline is lost. The bearish scenario is still on the table, but after today's strength it's no longer my primary focus. If we lose the new trendline with conviction, then I'll reassess. Until then, I'm more interested in letting price prove it wants to continue higher rather than trying to pick a top. Today's Game Plan Today isn't a day where I want to overtrade. My plan is simple: Day trade only. Silence the noise at the market open. Wait for 5-minute candle confirmation before taking any position. I'm only expecting one or two quality trades at most. Some days the best trade is the one you don't take. I'd rather wait for the market to come to me than force entries just because the opening bell rang. As always, the Heavy Diligence Options Signals Indicator will be my trigger—not my prediction. The technical analysis provides the roadmap, but the indicator helps identify when the probabilities begin shifting in favor of Calls or Puts. Combined with 5-minute confirmation, that's the approach I'll be sticking with today. Disclaimer: This is only a trade idea based on the current technical structure and is not financial advice. Always do your own research, wait for confirmation, and manage your risk before entering any trade.

by heavydiligence

SPY: Weekly Outlook Hey everyone, Here are my thoughts on SPY for the weekly, plus as an added bonus I will give you my LLM's thoughts on SPY for this week haha. More insightful than I have time for xD. For SPY, looking for Bearish Monday. SPCX is being added to the the NAS which I left out of my QQQ idea because I thought it to be irrelevant with Monday already projected to be bearish, but because someone in my group is so obsessed with it and feels I need talk about it (said with love and respect xD), here it is. Its being added to the NAS and historically additions to indicies are bearish events for both the ticker and the index. So it explains some of the bearish sentiment being forecasted for Monday for sure. Though not directly impacting S&P since its not being added to the S&P, S&P is not immune to what tech does / QQQ does. The SPCX addition is likely to be weighed under 1% of the NAS but it still requires displacement of other tickers. The outcome is actually paradoxical, despite indicies having to buy the level of shares to match the weight, the index and the ticker affected tend to sell. I am not 100% clear on this as the explanation is quite complex. But essentially, the index managers buy pre event on the close price of the day (so after hours orders) and because arbitrage players know its coming, they accumulate before the event and release on the event, which ends up being a profit taking event on the actual release. This is massively simplified but is the gist of the idea. Back to SPY, overall outlook on the week is bullish. The high probabiity target on the month actually corresponds to PH2 on the week, so that is quite interesting (yellow target). We have a very bullish quarterly high probability (pink line), worth paying attention to but not worth expecting to hit right away. As I indicated in my QQQ idea which is equally true for SPY, currently the regime is mean reverting and not really dip buying / rip shorting. Its mostly mean reverting, aggressive up moves followed by aggressive down moves. Strategies for this type of regime are simply BB, Z-Score, even a lower timeframe EMA can work. Easy to trade if you like to scalp and be in and out fairly quickly. The targets are posted on the chart, but before I conclude the idea, I will share my LLm's weekly analysis, which goes into much more depth that I really can on my own without a lot of overhead haha, so here you go: Overview Current Price: $744.78 Time Horizon: 5 days Velocity: The current Z-score is -1.02, indicating an EXTREME CLIMAX state. Key Indicators Regression Analysis: Bullish Box: $757.97 Bearish Box: $731.21 EMA Analysis: 20% consensus is bullish. XGBoost Analysis: 73.3% consensus is bullish. Analogues: 10/10 Bullish | Drivers: vol_v, entropy, rsi, hurst. Celestial Bias: BULLISH (color commentary only, no impact on confidence level) Fibonacci Structural Analysis Daily Timeframe: Resistance: $746.68 (141.4%) Distance: 0.26% above current price Historical Rejection Rate: 75% Support: $738.2 (127.2%) Distance: 0.88% below current price Historical Hold Rate: 25% Weekly Timeframe: Resistance: $760.4 (161.8%) Distance: 2.1% above current price Historical Rejection Rate: 100% Support: $727.1 (141.4%) Distance: 2.37% below current price Historical Hold Rate: 100% Monthly Timeframe: Resistance: $760.4 (161.8%) Distance: 2.1% above current price Historical Rejection Rate: 0% Support: $663.1 (141.4%) Distance: 10.97% below current price Historical Hold Rate: 100% Confidence Level Confidence Level: 70% Swing Target Primary Swing Target: Given the regression analysis and Fibonacci levels, the primary swing target is $757.97 (Bullish Box) as it aligns with the 141.4% Fibonacci level. Secondary Swing Target: If the price fails to hold above the 127.2% support level ($738.2), it could retest the 141.4% support level ($727.1). Day-by-Day Trajectories Day 1: Price is likely to consolidate within the current range, possibly testing the 141.4% resistance level ($746.68). Day 2-3: If the price breaks above the 141.4% resistance level ($746.68), it could push towards the 161.8% resistance level ($760.4). Day 4-5: If the price continues to rise, it could reach the Bullish Box target ($757.97). However, if it fails to break above the 141.4% resistance, it could retest the 127.2% support level ($738.2). Final Verdict Final Verdict: BULLISH Given the high consensus from XGBoost and the strong Fibonacci support, the primary trajectory is bullish. However, the market is currently in an EXTREME CLIMAX state, which increases the risk of a short-term pullback. Therefore, while the overall trend is expected to be bullish, traders should be cautious and manage risk appropriately. In my opinion, 757 is on the high end of things since it involves pushing towards the third high target and implies somewhat of a breakout, but the fib levels provide a great guide as potential areas to watch for support/rejection. Also note the overly bearish EMA metrics. Though the majority of metrics are bullish which is why the LLM is pushing a bullish narrative, something to watch out for. Overall those are my thoughts, not advice of course. Take care everyone and as always, safe trades!

by Steversteves

Potential Breakout $SPY Looking at TA, overall price action, and potential breakout at a major resistance area. AMEX:SPY

05:45

SPY Short Term TA SPY Intraday Options Watchlist for 7/8/26 SPY is approaching a decision point after consolidating between descending resistance and rising support, forming a tightening range. With price trading near the apex, Thursday's open should provide the first clue as to which side takes control. The key levels I'm watching are 745.31 (support) and 749.31 (resistance). 🟢 Bullish Scenario If SPY opens near current levels and breaks above 749.31 with conviction, buyers could build momentum for a move into the mid-$750s. A successful breakout should hold former resistance as support before attempting another leg higher. 🔴 Bearish Scenario If sellers push SPY below 745.31, it would confirm the loss of short-term support and increase the probability of a move back into the low-$740s. A failure to reclaim that level after the breakdown would strengthen the bearish case. 🟡 Range-Bound Scenario There's also a strong possibility that SPY continues to trade between 745.31 and 749.31, frustrating both bulls and bears before a true directional move develops. This would continue the current consolidation and make patience the better trade until one of the levels is decisively broken. My Outlook If I had to make a guess, I actually lean slightly bullish on Thursday's open. The chart has a bearish appearance, which makes me think the market could attempt to trap traders leaning too heavily to the downside before making a move higher. That's simply my read on the current setup—not a prediction. The Heavy Diligence Options Signals Indicator is designed to identify Call and Put opportunities, but no indicator is perfect. That's why mapping out key support, resistance, and potential scenarios beforehand is so important—it helps define the risk-to-reward and filter out lower-quality or false signals. While the indicator works best for scalping on the 5-minute timeframe, it can also be paired with solid technical analysis like these levels to improve entries and overall trade management on larger moves. Disclaimer: This is only a trade idea based on the current technical structure and is not financial advice. Always do your own research, wait for confirmation, and manage your risk before entering any trade.

by heavydiligence

Stock Market Forecast | BTC TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFT 0:00 - Intro & Video Overview 0:19 - Market Sector Data & Earnings Rotation 2:14 - S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ) 3:44 - Invesco QQQ ( NASDAQ:QQQ ) 4:53 - Semiconductor Dark Pool Data ( NASDAQ:SOXX ) 5:48 - Tech Sector Breakdown ( AMEX:XLK ) 8:32 - Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) 9:50 - Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) 10:28 - Meta Platforms ( NASDAQ:META ) 11:39 - Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) 12:19 - Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) 13:16 - Alphabet / Google ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) 13:53 - Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) 14:46 - NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) 15:37 - Outro & Commodities Video Reminder

15:40

by ArcadiaTrading

$SPY Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP)Setup AMEX:SPY is forming a volatility contraction pattern (VCP). After several weeks of elevated volatility, price action appears to be tightening, with higher lows developing even as lower highs continue to cap the range. At the same time, volume is drying up, which supports the idea that the pattern is consolidating. Trade Bias This pattern can break in either direction, so confirmation matters. My current bias is bullish, and I am watching for a break above the upper downtrend line. If that breakout occurs, I plan to consider a trade using AMEX:SSO as a leveraged proxy, since the AMEX:SSO chart has a similar setup. Risk Management If I take the trade, I will place my stop below the most recent daily low. Reminder If this idea fits your process, make it your own and follow your trading or investing rules. After all, it is your money.

by Brent_Calver

3 Chart Habits That Separate Consistent Traders from Lucky Ones We built Colony Trading around a simple belief: trading performance is a skill, and skill shows up in habits, not hot streaks. Here are three charting habits that consistently separate disciplined traders from lucky ones — in any market, real or simulated. 1. Mark your levels before the session, not during it. Disciplined traders draw their support and resistance zones before making a single trade. When price reaches a level, the decision was already made — they're executing a plan, not reacting to a candle. 2. Use fewer indicators, more deliberately. Strong traders typically run 1–3 indicators they deeply understand (usually volume plus one momentum tool), not ten overlapping ones. An indicator you can't explain is noise with extra steps. 3. Size positions around invalidation, not conviction. The question isn't "how sure am I?" — it's "where am I wrong, and how much does it cost to find out?" Traders who define the exit before the entry survive the losing streaks that eliminate everyone else. These are the habits we built our own skill-based simulated trading platform around — no real capital at risk while you build the discipline. Chart your levels, know your tools, define your risk. — Logan Mullins, founder of Colony Trading

$SPY: FOMC minutes Wed into the September top setup FOMC minutes from Warsh's first meeting land Wednesday July 8 at 14:00 ET, into a tape that just slid the hike from October to December after June NFP printed +57k on 7/2 (~half of consensus, private +49k, unemployment 4.2%). The near-term catalyst sits in front of a September convergence: SPY's monthly Time@Mode has room only into that month, and the oil-to-earnings lag from the late-February Hormuz supply shock lands the corporate-earnings drag on the same date. Two independent variables, one date. Near-term SPY is constructive above the first Warsh FOMC key level, but the weekly uptrend trigger is up at 767.1 this week (a range-expansion projection off last week's close), a good move higher and no longer in reach, and QQQ turned bearish on the daily into the 7/2 close, so the dispersion inside the majors is live. Read this bounce as a relief to trade with a leash, not a new bull leg. Behind the tape, oil flipped from shortage to glut: crude round-tripped to pre-war (~$72-73 Brent) and the disruption tail moved to Russian diesel (the Northwest Europe crack holds above $40, a potential export ban the real products-led spike risk). The oil-to-earnings lag cuts both ways: the late-Feb spike's drag lands ~September (the top), the round-trip lower projects a tailwind ~Dec 2026-Jan 2027. Signals scorecard sits low-conviction on the count (BULL 5 / BEAR 4) but three factors past kill lines: P/E 26.7x over 25, CPI 4.2% over 4.0, Junk Spreads 2.75 under the 3.0 contrarian line (credit pricing zero risk premium). Own cheap optionality over the directional bet. Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.

SPY: $746 Breakout or $742 Trap? Jul 6 SPY is coming into the new week near highs, but the setup is mixed because the market is balancing slower jobs data, Fed minutes, and rotation under the surface. Schwab reported June jobs came in at only 57,000 versus expectations, with unemployment at 4.2%, while SPX was around 7,483 and VIX near 15.98 in the July 2 update. The Fed calendar shows the next FOMC meeting is July 28-29, and Fed minutes are typically released three weeks after the policy decision. Barron’s also noted this week is relatively quiet before earnings season gets stronger, with Fed minutes as one of the key macro events. SPY is still holding near the upper range, but the chart is not a clean chase setup yet. The 1H chart shows price consolidating under resistance after a strong move from the $716 area into the $752 zone. The 15m chart shows a sharp pullback into $740, then a recovery back toward $746. The market still has bullish momentum, but the GEX setup shows puts are heavier right now, so I would let the key levels decide. The 1H chart shows SPY holding above the prior breakout area, but price is still under the upper trendline resistance near $750-$753. The recent rejection from $751-$752 created a short-term lower high, but buyers defended the $740 area quickly. This means SPY is still range-bound between $740 and $752. A break above $748-$750 can bring $751-$753 back into play. A failure under $742 can bring $740 and $735 into play. Key Levels $755: Upper GEX call zone and possible upside magnet if $752 breaks. $752-$753: Major resistance from the 1H chart. $751.31: Recent 15m high. $750: Main GEX call resistance and psychological level. $748-$749: First upside resistance zone. $746: HVL / current battle zone. $745.50-$746: Current price area. $742: First downside support and put level. $740.03: Recent 15m low. $735: Lower GEX put zone if $740 fails. 15m Chart The 15m chart shows SPY sold off from $751.31 down to $740.03, then recovered back into the $745-$746 zone. Price also broke above the short-term descending trendline, which is constructive. But the recovery is now testing the HVL area around $746. This is the decision zone. If SPY holds above $746, bulls can push toward $748 and $750. If SPY fails at $746 and loses $742, the chart can roll back toward $740. GEX Positioning The GEX chart shows SPY sitting almost exactly near the $746 HVL. This level can act like a magnet or pin area if volume stays light. Puts are around 62.4%, so the options positioning is not fully bullish. This means SPY can still bounce, but upside needs real buying pressure above $746-$748. The main upside GEX levels are $748, $749, $750, $752, and $755. If SPY clears $748 with volume, $750 becomes the next magnet. Above $750, $752-$755 becomes the next upside zone. Below price, $742 is the first put/support level. If $742 breaks, $740 becomes the next support. Below $740, the next downside magnet is $735. IVR is around 36.1 and IV average is around 16.8, so premium is not extremely hot, but SPY can still move if macro headlines or Fed minutes shift expectations. Bullish Scenario If SPY holds above $746 and breaks $748 with volume, the first upside target is $750. Above $750, the next target is $751.31-$752. If $752 breaks cleanly, SPY can push toward $755. A strong bullish confirmation would be a hold above $750 after the breakout. Bearish Scenario If SPY fails at $746 and loses $742, I would be careful. That would show buyers failed to defend the current HVL zone. Below $742, the first target is $740. If $740 breaks, the GEX downside opens toward $735. Trade Consideration For me, the clean long setup is above $748 with volume. I would not chase while SPY is stuck around $745-$746. The clean bearish setup is below $742. If $742 breaks and fails to recover, $740 and $735 become the next downside levels. Conclusion SPY is still holding near the highs, but the setup is not clean enough to chase. The 15m chart recovered well from $740, but GEX shows heavier puts and price is sitting right near the $746 HVL. Above $748 favors continuation toward $750, $752, and $755. Below $742 opens the door back to $740 and possibly $735. This is a level-to-level setup. Let $748 decide the breakout, and let $742 decide the breakdown.

by BullBearInsights