A little perspective on Bear Markets. What people don't realize.They can last years, and take over a decade to recover from. Scary right? Proper portfolio, and trading management is essential for not only survival, but also being able to thrive in that environment.by eb8Updated 440
SPY Compare IWM What's gonna happen ?To me SPY will come down to meet IWM. Not other way around why 1.National Debt 2 High Rates longer 3 Inflation 4 Economy no growth job lays off stop believing jobs report its a lie all that is in the charts. that's just a few every time guys they print to get market up that causes inflation Shortby john123
SP500, TAKE THE PAST AND SEE THE FUTURE?So, this is a slightly different look of another chart. Basically, we might be seeing this play out in real time. This pattern is scary where the price currently sits. and to where it can head. What is the pattern? Trace 2018 to Covid and then into recovery and correction. Bring that to the current move, pattern, wave... whatever you want to call it. It's close, not exact, but close, and close enough that it can't be completely thrown out as an idea. But that's all guessing based on a pattern, which is dumb. So, what do we know. We can see numbers projected to 600. We can see numbers projected to 200. We can see multiple gaps on the downside. We can see multiple stocks at their highs. We can see multiple stocks moving some 10% or more on earnings with price movements that don't quite make sense. We know there are two massive support trends (I just made the one) because of how close they are to each other. We've been seeing stocks break down past massive support trends, and then when all hope is lost, a huge return. We know statistically, gaps almost always close, and in a similar way of thinking, most impulse moves retrace a little over 100% (this gives no indication of the timing of a move, could be days, weeks, months, years...) We can see certain indicators starting to flash some bearish signals. We can see there might be another exit pump but we can't really know. We can see, charts are quite overextended from COVID lows. We know the election is around the corner. We know how bad a "down" market or market crash can look for a sitting president. We know more support comes in at 4780, 4360, 3800, 3300, 2900, 2500, 2200. I'm sure if you look hard enough, you'd find evidence that supports both a bullish and bearish projection on the s&p500, which is good. Take in all the info you can. Don't believe my garbage chart, but also, I wouldn't completely skip it. Longby nicktussing77Updated 1
Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 2nd WK MAY 2024Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 2nd WK MAY 2024 > NEUTRAL 📊 CORRECT Closed Price: 511.29 Target Price: 512.94 | Strike Price: 518.48 MAY7 24' Upper Range: 518.96 Lower Range: 506.92 Longby putIQ1
SPY - SHORTSPY SHORT, If we top here, Ive entered into puts this afternoon, looking to touch 50% horizontal retracement at LEAST. Will take most profit at the PoC just incase.Shortby Smart_Money_CpyderUpdated 222
$SPY May 8 ,2024AMEX:SPY May 8 ,2024 15 Minutes. As expected, AMEX:SPY was in sideways. Forming a HH, HL pattern. For the last rise from 514.89 to 518.87 it retraced 61.8% yesterday around 516.5 levels. So, for the day I will buy above 518.6 and sell below 515.6 for a target 513.5 to 514. I expect a move only above 520 at the moment. Need to cross the 519-520 resistance. We are having an oscillator divergence; price is making higher while oscillator making lows. Yesterday gap open was not sustained and the gap was closed. by RiderTrader556
SPY $ 580 Stagflation1. **Supply shocks**: Sudden increase in the cost of essential raw materials, such as oil or metals. 2. **Restrictive economic policies**: Excessive regulations or policies that distort the labor and goods markets. 3. **Engrained inflationary expectations**: Upward wage and price adjustments in anticipation of future inflation. 4. **Structural unemployment caused by AI and automation**: Loss of jobs due to the replacement of workers with advanced technologies. 5. **Expansive fiscal policies**: Excessive public spending that exceeds the productive capacity of the economy. 6. **Weakness in productivity**: Insufficient investments in technology or human capital that limit economic growth. 7. **Imported inflationary pressures**: Importation of inflation through foreign goods and services or currency depreciation. 8. **Increase in labor costs**: Increases in labor costs that are not aligned with improvements in productivity. 9. **Trade barriers and protectionism**: Tariffs and quotas that increase import costs and decrease global economic efficiency.Longby Ozy_Target2
SPY Long SPY is looking quite bullish for now, just broke above a bear flag it had been forming and filled a gap near $517 today, I'm expecting a push up to the $520 area if this and VX weakness continues. I'll be looking for it to retest that bear flag for an entry.Longby AdvancedPlays2
SPY - here comes the dumpLittle dead cat bounce is just about over, as you can see AMEX:SPY bouncing off the upper Bollinger band. The stochastic indicates profit taking too.Shortby SPY_Trader223
SPY short SPY created a weekly sell model, we targeting the low. Ideal area is going to be $460-480. All we did was a bearish retest and filled the -FVG and nuke. Shortby Scamwick692
$SPY May 7,2024AMEX:SPY May 7,2024 15 Minutes. AMEX:SPY managed to stay above 510 levels. Now we have 100 and 200 also near 510 levels. Now holding 513 levels uptrend intact. 513 is the 61.8 % retracement for the fall 524.61 to 493.86. 510 is important because it is 38.2% retracement for the rise 599.55 to 516.61. For the day holding 514 levels i have a target 518-519 levels. This is the number from April 11, we saw AMEX:SPY going all the way down 493 levels. So, I expect some resistance around 519-520 levels. I am going long around 515-515.6 levels for 519 SL 513 - 512.5. The retracement to 515 - 515.6 is due to oscillator divergence in 15 minutes. For two days we had a gap up we need to sort out the divergence.Longby RiderTrader2
CAN THE MARKET SURVIVE AN 80% CRASH, WHAT ABOUT ONLY 40%?So, for anyone who likes to watch certain movements. A big one is about to occur. A rejection from this break is the covid drop. about 30% and some. However, the end of the cycle, if you believe in those kind of things, would be a 100% retrace of the impulse with a little extra on the downside, which closes all gaps, I believe. That takes us down below 200. It would have to be quick. Next cycle then starts and pulls us up to $600. I tried to mark it in orange. This chart isn't an idea as in (I REALLY THINK WE'RE DROPPING 80% in less than 1 year). This is more to show that trend break from the past and the trend break showing. 518 to 530. CAREFUL ZONE!!! Market is showing a lot of crazy movements and numbers. I think something has to be "up" such as China and Taiwan considering what we're seeing with semiconductors. Shortby nicktussing77Updated 664
Opening (IRA): SPY September 20th 445 Short Put... for a 4.64 credit. Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. Was starting to get somewhat worried that we would never have decent IV again. This ain't great, but I'll take it ... . Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 4
Opening (IRA): SPY August 16th 460 Short Put... for a 4.95 credit. Comments: A Q3 starter position ... . Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. July isn't paying, so going out to August. Will look to add rungs in shorter duration, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I've got on currently.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0
SPY potential for ATHreading for OF spy potential retesting ATHs might take 2-3 weeksLongby StavrosKUpdated 113
$SPY Bear FlagCould be brutal if this breaks down. JPOW held the market, but not for long, hmmm. Rip or dip ASAP. Shortby Prophecies_R_UsUpdated 6
SPY TAHere is a chart of SPY with the support and resistance outlined based off volume. TA can help you predict where price can go, and based off the current level its going sideways. This coming week we have earnings and FED speak on Wednesday from Powell. With inflation elevated and not appearing to decrease we can hear the same rhetoric from Papa Powell himself. Will updated soon. by Simon1988Updated 110
May 6 gap and gap fill my post yesterday was on point. Follow me bay option 707 on X Longby pdmoreno8280
SPY short trade setupWe have reached the top of the formation on the chart and is the area I have been looking at for retrace, so added a bit of short puts for a possible swing short next week.Shortby alleytraderUpdated 1
SPY 4hr updateWe broke through Zone 3 and the next wicked down to the previous supply zone (zone 3). I would consider this next candle as non confirmation to the upside due to the wick down. I would prefer to see a candle survive totally above the zone as confirmation. Full body with no wick would be A+. However a pull back is in store as we are over 70 on the rsi, but equally we are trading above the 13, 48, and 200 ema. Therefore my overall sentiment is bullish.Longby KlabCo0
SPY Daily - Rising WedgeTreading lightly here as the SPY looks to be right at the end of a bearish rising wedge following a bearish ABCD Elliot Wave heading into a major week economically speaking. On Wednesday we have retail sales numbers, core CPI, and Core CPI YOY coming out, followed by jobless claims on Thursday. Will be watching closely, some support levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime, bearish and hedged- (Original Chart Attached Below) - Rising Wedge following a bearish ABCD Elliot Wave - Hidden Bearish Divergence on the RSI - Sitting right on its 50-Day SMA - Bearish ABCD Elliot WaveShortby jacobosiason74
SPY bearish outlookSPY (second red mark) looks like a repeat of the 1st one. Additionally the pitchfork lines also seem bearish. Additional pitchfork lines also seem to confirm a bearish outlook: Shortby TradersForecast2
When it comes to broadening wedges...AMEX:SPY Here we have a few broadening wedges. The last 2 were descending and SPY blasted off to new ath highs. Now were in a ascending wedge and sitting at 514. We have a few big name ERs that can put us back on the path to new aths but I think we are heading back to 480 by July based on the previous wedge behavior, and long support and resistance. Shortby lalo.daman1