SPY VWAP SetupI setup an AVWAP starting Jan 2. I also added an upper band with std dev of 2 I then added additional vwap handoffs, anchoring on low points of previous vwaps and this is what I got.by emilio_sforzaUpdated 220
SPY putting in a top likely105 days over the 25 day MA of lows. 4:1 generally not sustainable. It is the timeframe since the November low that is most disconcerting. Metrics since the 2009 low are somewhat overbought but not as desperately so as just since this past November low. Rsquared in the .95 area also troublesome though .97 can be found in history. This would be an opportunity for the longs to trim and the contemplative shorts to find an opportunity.Shortby MAgicTrx0
SpyClosed on trendline support, 20sma and 508 price action... I think there's a very high chance we could close gap at 515 and push to trendline resistance 515-516 early on in the week like so If 508 is broken early this week (Monday) the first stop would be 507 gap close, watch for a bear trap there and a bounce, i dont think we go for 503-505 until later in the week. Below 507 and i like the short to 505. Weekly candle and volume hints at a lower low incoming but always remember this, "Weekly technicals have the entire week to fulfill", meaning we can see a technical bounce early on and then look for the dump/flush around late Wednesday or thursday. Qqq daily chart. Bounced off 433 price action and trend line support. I circled the previous 4 touches that validates this trendline Closed inside this falling wedge here.. i smell 444 gap close this week As you know how tricky playing the right tech can be these last 2 months. I think Chip stocks play majority role in the upside for tech this week.. SMH sector.. same falling wedge here, out friday as u notice with the pop on chips , fizzled out later on but the setup is still there and with NVDA event i think we will see a big move IWM Weekly trading inside a wedge. Closed on support trendline. Hourly chart here 203.50 will be very sticky because of the price action and 20sma.. over 203.50 and 206.50 comes next. Below 200 is 50sma at 198. A close below 198 a d 194 gap close incoming XLK sector Range trade here.. unless 204 breaks careful shorting (Msft or aapl).. 204 is nvda earnings gap so if we lose 204 QQQ will most likely lose 433 XLY (Amzn/Tsla) Broke wedge support late last week with heavy selling from tsla. Should test 174 this week. So look for more weakness here XLC (META /Googl) If you notice the last 2months that whenever Meta is up googl is down; This is because these are the 2 biggest stocks in this sector and currently the sector is trading in a tight range. Closed on 21ema so starting next week we'll either head back to 80.40 resistance or 78. A summary of this analysis is Up early in the week and Red later by ContraryTraderUpdated 181868
tape showing sellingbeen a while since i wrote anything here. had a new born and a lot of time has been devoted to spending time with him. i should be on more frequently now. 524 days from import bottom right as spy hits 524. 175 points up from important bottom or 1/3 of 524. 144 days from last bottom. 17 months from bottom and 175 points up. all this happened right at the spring equinox. if it cant hold here than a bottom into mid may is something to look for the next move up. Shortby Oppollo227
Will Spy ContinueBased on last known significant news on the economy, we should see continuation into new highs. We need to acquire levels downward to let those that have open orders that did not fill during FOMC news release. 419.50-420.50 looks good and mixing that with the retracement tools and the current flag pattern looks primed at any moment to continue upward. Probably looking at next week calls. Longby bkrueger0204
SPY - supportsSPY is short-term extended and looks ready to make a pullback. First zone for a pullback is 520.50 Second zone is around 518by ivanistrading2
$SPY Uptrend Breakdown... NOW ITS REAL - GUCCICorrection time -10%+ on indicies starting today... www.youtube.com Posted this line a few weeks ago and it actually held up and led to nice gains if you bought it as support. However, unless a new algo drops before close today, the uptrend is officially BROKE. Given the angle of incline as well as the length of time it held up, this break will be A LOT UGLIER than the -1% we have today imo. Only bull hope is some weekend news that gaps up back in trend by monday, low odds, think we get bad news soon ... - ProfShortby Prophecies_R_UsUpdated 1
S&P: Bearish signals mount but buyers still have controlLast week began with a display of strong conviction from buyers, propelling price upwards towards the previous high (516.5). They managed to surpass it by a small margin, establishing a new historical high at 517.1. Unfortunately, bulls were unable to sustain momentum and build a new value zone, allowing bears to regain control and push price back towards the previous low. All these developments signal daily uptrend exhaustion. Trend is close to reversal, but it is not there yet. Sellers must prove their strength by taking down the last week low (506,9). Until then it is still bulls market and buyers have control. The outlook for the next week is neutral. Long term Buyers should refrain from increasing position and consider (partial) profit taking. Sellers can try shorting the market but remember that odds are still slightly in favor of the opposite side. Wednesday (20th) is an important day for the market as FED will announce interest rate decision. P.S. for some reason weekly high on the daily chart doesn’t match weekly high on the weekly chart. I have reported this issue to TV support Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts. by hermes_trismeUpdated 2
SPY BEAR ALERT ALERT ALERTAttention all bears, thank you for your laughable efforts and posts but please learn how to read a chart! The Wedge doesn't exist... never did. the only thing going full bear is the circle jerk meet yall create in all the comment sections. P.S. I hope you're all still long. P.S.S ContraryTrader is a total clownShortby DixxinBuuts558
$SPY: GET YOUR FOMC LOTTOS HERE!!Looking to get a lotto for tomorrow's FOMC. It looks like the PA is trying to get back into the trend channel. We are still near ATH and JPOW could launch this into Mars. As always like any other FOMC play VERY HIGH RISK!! Do not buy if you cannot afford the loss, which is what you should assume going into playing FOMC. Waiting to see if todays PA will have a pull back to $513 to buy calls at a cheaper price. Premiums are inflated right now but looking for OTM week or 2 out. by The_SPY_Who_Shagged_MeUpdated 0
Looking for Spy ContinuationReason: Not much news that would impact the economy so we are looking at a continuation of reaction of news. Consolidation for the morning with room to go up on the technicals, should result in upward movement. Just not sure which FVG it wants to take. The one from this morning or the 520 value FVG.Longby bkrueger0203
SPY short this weekI get my information from my dowsing practice. I had yesterday that this Tuesday would be the high for the week and the low is likely Friday, so I dug in and this is what I have for the scenario. Though it could be a slightly higher bit tomorrow morning. Also, watch the time of day around 10:50-11:00: High around $516-17 Low around $492-93 Looking for a v-bottom reversal. High odds that ledge around 517 is broken, but if they don't hit and start heading down, then we trade to the low targets around the end of the week, I would feel really good about then going long to hit the stops above that 517 level. We'll see!Shortby JenRzUpdated 0
$SPY March 21, 2024AMEX:SPY March 21, 2024 15 Minutes. Wednesday. Once more made money. Onc 518.5 was taken out AMEX:SPY made ATH. Consider the rise from 515.08 to 520.62. Holding 517 uptrend will continue. Also if we take two other rises from 514.36 to 520.62 and from 511.1 to 520.62 We find 515-516 very important levels to hold to continue the uptrend. For the move 508.36 to 515.47 to 511.13 I have 522 - 523 as target. by RiderTrader2
SPY LongAfter good economic projections in the FOMC. Looking for continued upside on the SPY. A dip to 518.38 area would be a good place to buy, with initial TP at 525 and final TP at 530.Longby Just-Technicals0
FOMC ResultsTechnical: My strategy that I use is to find where there is FVGs and use the retracement tool with the following levels in the image. Once they overlap with the FVG range, I use those levels for my SL and entry location. Target is represented by the lines that were created by using the fib extension tool with levels back in 2020 crash and 2021 top. News: The idea of cutting interest rates was a thing of the past and when that was announced, there was little to no tanking of the market so we were naturally bullish unless interest rates were increased. So entering the FOMC meeting I was very bullish at least to those Fib extension levels. Longby bkrueger020Updated 7
SPY & WhySPY now really in the danger zone. An rsquared basis the November low of .953 precarious and susceptible. What will trigger the break? Not sure just know that I will have a basket of puts ready to go.Shortby MAgicTrx0
Return to FVGsThe move is bouncing off a FVG toward a lower level FVG before FOMC meeting. We were in consolidation on spy but a return to these levels depending on FOMC results.Shortby bkrueger020Updated 4
LongAccording my charts analysis, the can move further in will have to come and tested around the zone drawn. Longby KAOYANG1
SPY will tryWell SPY is above the gravity channel so the natural direction to trade now would be short if the market decides to reenter the gravity channel a point or two lower. Let’s see if Powell doesn’t give it that impetus at 2. Shortby MAgicTrx0
Unprecedented Vol Suppression, but signs of more upside ahead??Going as far back as the VIX goes, there really hasn't been a period of volatility movement so tightly suppressed. The VIX has slowly been creeping up since its December bottom, but in the tiniest movements possible. No real significant spikes. Now, I alluded last fall to there being potentially one last big rally before this market tops and we go down. This rally has certainly gone on for much longer and gone much further than I think most people anticipated. It's completely reset the timer, if you will, on this bull market. While people are now saying this is a massive bubble that is due to be popped, the way the options market is hedging has not shown the slightest bit of fear of a large downside move, at least not so far as the VIX is showing. We would have seen at least one significant spike and a higher low setting up by now if that were the case. But we haven't. Even my VIX/VVIX indicator, which has now set some successive higher lows has calmed down, the most recent dip showing a lower low than the previous. Furthermore, the junk corporate bonds AMEX:HYG have made the most bullish turn they could have from the trend that was established last fall. Now, while it's leveled off since late December, it's remained pretty tightly range-bound much like $VIX. Also unusual. Zooming in some more: On the daily a couple weeks ago, it looked like some bearish divergences, but has since turned more bullish again. Almost feeling like it's ramping up to want to break out of the range it's been stuck in for months. Zooming in on the VIX: Potential downtrend in the highs. The fact that the most recent spikes couldn't hold above 15... Bad news for bears, it would seem. Or, is this what 0DTE options are doing to markets? Are we just at the start of a radical new pattern we'll have to learn with volatility that might make it even more difficult to judge a major market cycle top? Not real sure. What I do feel is after the FOMC meeting tomorrow, it just might be another yolo AMEX:SPY calls moment. In some ways the market felt like it was reaching a local top--like maybe it was due to a downturn ala last August, but looking at how VIX and HYG are moving, a part of me wants to say it's still not time to stop buying dips. On the macro side of things, CPI and such has come in a tiny bit hotter than expected. Employment remains robust. There isn't enough obvious slowing for the fed to want to cut any time soon. We're still too far above the target inflation rate. The way the 3 year bill treasury yields are, there's no movement in fed funds rate being implied yet. Given the hotter than expected economic reports of late, Powell may well have to turn more hawkish and kick the can down the road on the possibility of rate cuts. Here's the thing, though. The further out you can push rate cuts because the economy remains strong, that means the "smart money" still has nowhere to go but continue to plow into good stocks. Eventually, if the economy does show significant weakening and the fed finally starts to cut, that's when "smart money" makes a mad dash to buy treasuries while the getting is good, and will likely sell some stock to do so, sending equities down. Compounding the fact that the economy might be at just the beginning of increasingly bad news, i.e. if we trigger a recession with these interest rates (which is pretty much the point of rate hikes--to slow the economy) then you get multiple compression of price and earnings. Prices continue to cascade downwards until the economy starts to look like the tide is starting to turn back to the upside. So, with that in mind, I feel we still have at least until late this year to keep yolo'ing stocks. It's possible we have a cool-off period where some of the chip and AI-adjacent stocks that have been extra high-flying of late go down and then sideways for awhile. When that happens, look for where implied volatility in those individual stocks look suspiciously low and the price action has begun to curl up more consistently on the daily chart. Not yet extreme, but just starting to go. That's where you yolo some way OTM calls with maybe only a month or two to expiration and wait for the fireworks. If the macro picture does start to look more dire later this year, before we finally reach a more obvious top, expect another massive, frothy expansion of the bubble for a number of weeks before things pop. For now, keep it simple. If you aren't seeing significant bearish divergences in VIX and HYG, keep up the dip-buying in the indices. Also, this rally seems to be broadening while the megacap, chipmakers and AI stocks are cooling off just a little. AMEX:RSP (equal weight S&P) and INDEX:S5TH (S&P 500 stocks above their 200 day moving average) have broken out of the range we've been in all through 2023. RSP has just recently set new all time highs and S5TH is now at a height we haven't seen since 2021, but not yet at its ATH. So, I'd be more inclined to buy the dip in indices and let the "overbought" megacap and chipmaker stocks trend slightly down to sideways for awhile. Leave 'em be for a bit. Their time will come to rocket up rapidly again soon enough.Longby dieseldub0
$SPY March 20, 2024AMEX:SPY March 20, 2024 15 Minutes. AMEX:SPY opened gap down. So closed shorts around 511.5 levels. Consider the last rise from 511.13 to 515.99. Holding today, 514 levels I expect AMEX:SPY to make one more attempt towards 518-518 levels. AMEX:SPY has closed above all moving averages. The black bar on stochastic is on top, During retracement from 515.47 to 511.13 there was no black bar at stochastic bottom. CCI is green and Elloitt oscillator is green.Longby RiderTrader441
SPY: Week of March 18 Tricky week ahead with FOMC. So I decided to post both the ARIMA plot and the generic forecasting plot that I use. ARIMA has us staying below the wedge breakdown that we did on Friday: The 80% confidence level on ARIMA (meaning 80% of closes are likely to fall below that level) is straddling that wedge. To break back over the wedge we would need to go into the 95% range (i.e. we would need to go into the range and stay in the range where there is a 95% probability we are closing below). This is to say, its not looking promising for a wedge reclaim. But I don't think anyone will be happy right away. I suspect we will range and chop until FOMC and then from there, we will maybe see some more movement, but then rangy again. At this point, the direction seems down. Its going to be very difficult for SPY to hold a 95% range when buyers are peacing out. If we look at the cumulative buyers vs sellers, we just did a bearish cross on Friday where sellers have now crossover over (surpassed) buyers: There is a heikin ashi bearish setup I can see on the 2 hour chart which signals a fall sub 508.36. Personally, I would put money on PL1 as the immediate target for next week. But obviously not advice! Those are my thoughts for now, but will update if I think/see anything else! Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone! by SteverstevesUpdated 232346
SPY LIVE 19 March 2024This is my live analysis for SPY, and I have discussed what I am expecting from tomorrow. if you have any doubts feel free to DM me. NOTE:MARKET HAS MOMENTUMLong09:36by THECHAARTIST886