Hi all,
Haven't posted in quite a while. Reason being that I'm doing this for free and the market was not showing any more bullish promises.
So here we are. High inflation rates, gas price exploding, Ukraine war. Not many positive news.
I'm bearish now. And have been since my last post in late November, early December 2021.
I own lots of SQQQ calls for Jan 2023...
... for a 6.96 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV for broad market (72/30). Opened this toward the close on Friday. 6.96 credit on buying power of 50.19; 13.3% ROC as a function of buying power; 6.7% at 50% max.
The overall market had a poor weekly performance but managed to absorb a week of negative news. Higher inflation number, oil prices and the end of QE could not break key support levels. The bottom may be forming soon. Be greedy when others are fearful!
It looks as though the SPY is beginning a head and shoulders, I posted this earlier, but I mistimed the first down by 3 days, so I have shifted my original arrows, and now have added a prediction for the second shoulder.
Fed meeting goes well, nothing surprise the market.
This is the end of the bear cycle ending with a retest of a key area of support (420), which is confirm by the bullish divergence.
This is a whole falling wedge supported by the 20 monthly Ma (409).
Last candle was a big bear trap, fell below a key support and closed back over it.
Big volume days tend to happem...
This is a potential path for the bearish theory.
As we can see on this downtrend, every time we retrace 0.618 of the previous move we down.
First confluence : FED meeting goes bad, we drop to fill the gap that are not filled near 400, this lead to around 395. Let's say we go down the same % as the last drop, this also lead to around 395.
Second confluence : I...
I had to update this slightly.. the market came down just a smidge more than I expected at the end of the day today.... so this is your area to look in next week...... I think next week has potential to be the easiest week I think I have ever seen in the market. Watching several things that are setting up absolutely perfectly. Lets see if we get that follow...
FED will decide rate hiking and if FED increase rates as planned, I believe indices will breath for a short term. (Look Euro Zone- didn't change rates DAX etc rallied 5%
There is a long weekend, everyone watching closely Ukraine invasion. Positive news might cause a relief rally before FED meeting.
Expectation short term relief and test 430-435 but long term we...
$SPY! Key Levels, Analysis & Targets
I actually use a lot of linear regression behind the scenes, but I don’t often publish it. I have come to rely a little bit on the wisdom this indicator brings… so this is where we are…. What do you guys see? This is a 5 year regression.
It seems to support the 180EMA (slightly above)
Hope you all had a fun week!!!
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Actually this is a small collection of my lessons from today -- specifically the past hour and a half.
1. Indicators are always a lagging indicator. I really don't believe anyone can trade with technical analysis with the actual price chart turned off (though not enough people remind us to look back at the actual chart) and what we all look for in them is follow...
DISCLAIMER
This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. There is absolutely no financial advice here because the only financial advice I can give is to research, research, and research.
This is a shit-post. I write hypercritical microscopic analytical investigations into companies to determine if...
Large toping pattern and AB=CD Harmonic brings the near term target of 392. I think it will be wise reassess the trade ~400. Follow the trend, you must!
A triangle is evident. I am confident that SPY will break up to the upside and make a nice run. But remember that we are in a BEAR market. Therfore, monitor all your indicators and buy "PUTS" when needed ie. Strong resistance levels. Monitor GOLD and buy at KEY support levels and be patient with getting into BONDS bc we still haven't crossed "0" mark on "INVERTED...
So for next week, unless something crazy happens between now and market close I am looking for us to stay in this green box next week. And yes, I am looking for upside. Amazon and chipotle are two of a few tickers looking great. If you can spot it, kudos to you! I know there are some smart people around here.
Otherwise.. my alerts are set and Ill check...
... for a 1.40 credit.
Comments: This is a smidge shy of 50% max, but has only 7 days to go. Rolling it down and out to the April 29th short put paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. Total credits collected of 19.07 (See Post Below) plus 1.40 or 20.47 relative to the 375's current price of 3.98, so I've realized gains of 16.49 ($1649) so far. ...
I know this is a little bit of a messy chart. Alot of trend lines and yellow rectangles-
Here is the breakdown and outlook for SPY leading into the weekend and next week-
I am anticipating a small correction this morning that will lead us to Pre market gap fill with a target of 426.44. This will achieve gap fill and trendline support (Green box for reference)...
