Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum 5: Conclusions: In installments 1 - 4 we built a market momentum matrix and plotted the information onto a stylized business cycle. In this installment we will make final observations and thoughts around the current cycle. Capital flows into and out of commodities, sectors and equities have...
Yesterday's candle is green on this chart but it is supposed to be RED so this is a harami today. ATH 107.88. Price is close to this even in the current economic environment. I guess folks can dilly daddle all day long about the definition of a recession, but I think most agree our economy is not hunky dory. It may take time to affect earnings but I am wondering...
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum: Part 1 Effect of liquidity: Change in regime: It is often said that markets are discounting mechanisms, anticipating changes in the business cycle. I believe that it is generally true, and while it has been less true for most of the last two decades, that it is about to become true again. It is my...
The Dow Jones has had one of the largest rallies in history the last two weeks; out of a correction phase. Earnings reactions have showed us that sideline money has been stepping in. $BA had a 10% drop on ER but is well over the high of that day now. With growth and tech companies showing contracting earnings, money is flowing to companies that know how to make...
Hey all, I'd short XLI on the gap fill, or when SPY reaches $389. It's fresh off of distribution and is now in a downtrend. Looking to play it accordingly by shorting rallies where I think they're running out of steam, which I think this rally is.
Hey all, as I've been making clear, I suspect a near-term pullback. I am fully planning on buying the dip; here's how I plan on playing XLI and what I am expecting.
hey all, I think XLI is creating a higher low here. I don't expect this name to breach fresh 52 lows for a while; I'd much rather be long here than short.
Hey all, I think industrials are due to bounce and are setting up very similarly to 2008. Here's my long trade idea.
Looks like the worst is priced in. PPI rising faster than CPI, which means it's the retail who take the hit. Industrial PMIs stopped falling off the cliff. Looks like October might support industrials a bit
AMEX:XLI Possible Scenario: SHORT Evidence: Price Action, Money-Flow, Rejection at 200MA, TP1: 95$ TP1: 92$ PUT option, 16 Sep, Strike 98$ This is my idea and could be wrong 100%.
Hey all, I'm currently positioning myself for the likely next leg lower in the stock market. Currently watching industrials and names within XLI for shorts. It has rallied nicely off the bottom and likely will present a solid reward when it moves lower. I think it is a lower-risk trade, and will likely be easy to stop out of break-even should things go awry.
Wedge drop entry on XLI as market resumes RTM Entry 93.82 Stop 95.63 PT1 - 92.09
Similar to todays XLK short this too I would also consider this a C trade. Here's why Cons 1) The stop is far , 2) Missed the little pop at the end of day , could have had a slightly better stop vs entry distance ( I did enter in final 30 min per my rules , however ...) 3) We have not cleared the range, big bars are common in ranges . 4) DB , MTR , a...
The funny thing is - US have been exporting inflation for decades. Now they seem to be importing it. Chinese and German manufacturers rise prices at double digits, while US producers struggle to cope with logistics imbalances. Strong decline after hitting a downtrend resistance shows lack of belief. Wrong stage of cycle.
Many of the industrials stocks have come to reasonable pricing, but the amount of debt and price of raw materials still weigh on the sector. Possibly a weaker rebound on risk on sentiment
The amount of debt and rising rates as well as commodities inflation keep putting pressure on the sector
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Industrial Select Sector Index. The Index seeks to provide an effective representation of the industrial sector of the S&P 500 Index Seeks to provide precise exposure to companies in the following...
XLI following strong bull volume has a clear resistance at the 104.50 level. Quick daytrade opportunity with a possibility to swing based on afternoon momentum.