Get started
Bitcoin Liquid IndexBitcoin Liquid IndexBitcoin Liquid Index

Bitcoin Liquid Index

No trades
See on Supercharts
OverviewIdeasMindsSeasonalsMarkets

Trade ideas

BTC Cycle Review: know when to hold 'em & when to fold 'emReviewing the time around the halving that produces profitable trending signals. From the chart 1 yr and 2 months before the halving and 1 year 5 months after the halving produces profitable signals consider pre halving to be spring consider post halving to be summer consider the red X between the two to be winter and unprofitable to take signals. Posting this up as reference into the next cycle. interested to see how this plays out.
BNC:BLX
by SnarkyPuppy
6
BTC 2017 All Over Again? Is It About to Go Parabolic?Forbes just ran with a headline about a Bitcoin “death spiral.” The wording might be sensational, but the risk they are pointing to is real. It is sitting inside Bitcoin treasuries. Companies like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and Nakamoto are being packaged as safe institutional gateways to Bitcoin. The truth is, they are not just buying and holding. They are borrowing, issuing debt, and selling shares to continue buying more BTC. That structure works brilliantly when the price is running higher. When BTC pulls back, the debt remains while the value of the collateral falls. If their share prices sink at the same time, they cannot raise fresh equity. That is when forced selling begins, and the pressure feeds on itself. This is where the LUNA comparison fits. LUNA collapsed because the system relied on TWAP buying to keep its peg alive. It needed a constant programmed demand. The second confidence cracked that demand disappeared, the mechanism broke, and the whole structure fell into a reflexive death spiral. Bitcoin treasuries carry a similar fragility. They look strong on the way up because debt and dilution keep the system fed. But if one cracks, others will likely follow, and the forced selling could cascade through the market. It is history repeating in a new form. The Cycle Overlap Now layer in the cycles. December 2024 marked the rollover of the 8-year stress cycle in traditional markets. That signal has already triggered. But treasuries are not following that rhythm. They are moving in line with Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle. Every halving is followed by a strong run, a cycle top, and then a correction. That puts the real pressure point into December 2025. If treasuries hit the wall at the same time Bitcoin’s bull cycle peaks, the overlap could accelerate a blow-off followed by a brutal correction. The 8-Year Stress Cycle (Traditional Markets) 2000 → Dot-com bubble rollover. Fed started cutting rates, but equities crashed hard into 2001–2002. 2008 → Global Financial Crisis. Fed slashed rates aggressively, but markets fell into a full-blown meltdown before recovery. 2009 was the brutal washout before recovery. 2016 → Global growth scare, China devaluation, Fed hiking cycle wobble. Markets pulled back, stress showed, then liquidity stepped in. 2024 → December rollover. The signal of cracks returning: inflation sticky, rate cuts being prepped, credit stress building, and leveraged players under pressure. The pattern - every 8 years, traditional markets hit a rollover point where stress shows up, liquidity shifts, and the system resets. The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle 2013 → Top after 2012 halving, deep correction. 2017 → Top after 2016 halving, brutal correction in 2018. 2021 → Top after 2020 halving, correction in 2022. 2025 → Halving cycle points to a top window in December 2025, with correction risk into 2026. Where Tether Fits Tether (CRYPTOCAP:USDT) is not just minting stablecoins. It has become one of the largest buyers of short-dated US Treasuries on the planet, with more than 120 billion US dollars worth on its books. In calm conditions, that makes sense, they clip yield and backstop redemptions. But if markets crash and liquidity dries up, redemptions spike. To meet them, Tether must raise dollars by selling or repo’ing those T-bills. Normally, that is seamless. In stress, selling can add to liquidity drains at the edges of both the Treasury market and crypto. If redemptions surge at the same time treasuries are being forced to sell BTC, you get a double liquidity squeeze. The Technical Picture Look at the Fibonacci structure on the chart. The key levels line up with what could be a wave 3 of 3 in Elliott Wave terms — the most explosive part of any trend. That explains the sharp upside move this year. It is powerful, but it is also the phase where leverage and euphoria get stretched the furthest. If this lines up with treasuries cracking and Tether redemptions spiking, the volatility on both sides will be extreme. 2016–2017 vs 2024–2025 In 2016, traditional markets were rattled by China’s devaluation, an oil price collapse, and Fed policy missteps. Liquidity reset the system. For Bitcoin, that reset coincided with the halving and set up the most explosive run in its history. By 2017, equities were making new ATHs and Bitcoin went parabolic to nearly $20k before the brutal 2018 correction. Now in 2025 we are seeing the same setup. Stress triggered in December 2024, but liquidity is flowing back. Markets everywhere are hitting new ATHs. Bitcoin has surged and is acting like it is in its 2017 phase right now, the blow-off leg of the 4-year cycle. That puts the risk squarely into December 2025 for a cycle top followed by a correction. The Cycle Top Target I believe the cycle top for Bitcoin will land on or around 22nd December 2025. The Fibonacci levels line up cleanly with this window: Strong resistance at 0.236 and 0.382. Under normal conditions, these zones would cap the move, but if we are truly in a 2017-style run, price can blow straight through them in a parabolic surge before the eventual correction. Fibs left on the chart for reference. Key points BTC treasuries are leveraged and debt-loaded. Many treasuries exist, not just one, so cascades are possible. December 2024 = 8-year rollover in traditional markets. December 2025 = 4-year BTC cycle top window. Tether can flip from stabiliser to amplifier if redemptions rise. Fibonacci shows a potential wave 3 of 3, explosive but unsustainable. 2025 mirrors 2017: markets at ATHs, Bitcoin in parabolic mode. Target: 22nd December 2025 as the likely top. Stop losses and capital protection are critical. It looks like BTC 2017 all over again. The parabolic phase may not be finished yet, but the closer we get to December 2025, the sharper the risk of a brutal correction. This is not Bitcoin dying. This is a test of leverage and liquidity. If treasuries and Tether both get squeezed into the cycle top, the correction could be brutal. But as always, it will clear the field for the next 4-year cycle if you survive the next brutal 2026 BEAR Market. Thanks for Reading, and please let me know your thoughts <3 Lisa
BNC:BLXLong
by LisaNEdwards
22
Bitcoin's Incredible Potential for a $400,000+ Price TagBINANCE:BTCUSD Bitcoin looks to remain the talk of the financial world as it prepares for a strong upside stretch to $191K by end of year 2025. Though we may see a prolonged pause near the $150K-$160K rage, it will likely only serve to trap bears and allow profitable entry for new buyers. My macro outlook on Bitcoin remains as bearish as it could ever be, but until November 2026 - March 2027, I think that it will continue to move up by small margins (especially when compared to memes/alts like UNISWAP:TSUKAUSDC_67CEA3 ). Some of the most renown experts have end of cycle targets like $1,000,000+. I think this is the most farfetched news you could be fed right now. Protect peace. Protect purpose. Protect profits.
BNC:BLXLong
by DigitalSurfTrading
BITCOIN - The Corrective Pattern Since 2013 Explained...In this video, I break down Bitcoin’s corrective pattern since 2013 using the AriasWave methodology—rather than Elliott Wave or Bollinger Bands. This marks a significant moment for AriasWave followers, as I apply the method in a more advanced way to decode not only Bitcoin’s structure, but also global markets and, most importantly, Altcoins. I highlight Altcoins in particular because they appear to hold the greatest potential for explosive growth, largely due to their lagging correlation with Bitcoin. This video is the first in a new analysis series, where I’ll soon take a closer look at Bitcoin’s short-term price action. For now, I wanted to start with this broader perspective, which projects Bitcoin reaching a target range between $276K and $311K. The target for Ethereum is $69K. I will explain the target for Thor Chain in an upcoming RUNEUSDT video.
BNC:BLXLong
by AriasWave
BTC USD last push before correctionThe indicators are slowly showing that the market is running out of steam and Bitcoin needs a breather. In terms of cycle timing, we're also slowly approaching the final stages. Retail interest is showing increasing interest, which is also slowly signaling the top. In my opinion, we'll see a final push and then slowly enter the bear market. The top could be somewhere between 130,000 and 140,000, which would then initiate the correction. Be careful.
BNC:BLXLong
by logindaten
BITCOIN - Just Some Talk Before I Get Serious...I’m not here to sugarcoat your reasons for investing in crypto. My role is simply to share the insights I see in this market, whether you like them or not. Honestly, part of me hopes people lose money—not because I think about it every day, but because maybe then they’ll finally wake up to what they’re really doing with their money. From a bigger-picture perspective, I believe we’re on the edge of a major economic reset. The system can’t keep repeating the same cycles without breaking down. Eventually, reality catches up—and when it does, the economy will collapse in on itself, at least for a time. Do I care about that collapse personally? Not really. What I do care about is AriasWave analysis—the methodology I developed over many years. And through that lens, the current market looks just like Tulip Mania or the dot-com bubble: frothy, unsustainable, and honestly, kind of hilarious. I can already see how it ends. Whether or not I “hope” for it, the patterns themselves point to an inevitable outcome. If you can’t see this based on the analysis I’m showing you, then you’re willfully blind. Blind as a bat. And in markets, blindness costs money—you will lose. Here’s the bottom line: based on AriasWave, I expect Bitcoin to peak somewhere between $276,000 and $311,000 before topping out. If you want to understand what comes next, you’d better follow along. Because if you don’t, you’ll stay blind to what’s really happening in the broader market—and in that case, survival is not on your side. And by the way, there is more to come.
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
Quick Lesson: How to Identify Trend ReversalKnowing when to enter the market can mean the difference between making a profit and incurring a loss. The chart above clearly compares two similar-looking scenarios with very different outcomes: the one you should aim for and the one you should avoid. - On the left , we see a textbook example of a bullish reversal. After a significant downtrend, the market prints higher lows and begins forming an ascending support. This signals that selling pressure is fading and buyers are stepping in. Notably, there are usually lots of unfilled bags — latecomers who show strong demand below the current price level but never get their orders filled, and who then just hit the 'market buy' button, which adds fuel to the fire of pump. - In contrast, the right side shows a very similar pattern — a downtrend followed by consolidation, but with crucial differences. Here, all prior liquidity zones have already been filled, meaning there is less incentive for buyers to support the price. The “same vector” suggests price action hasn’t changed direction, and a common short squeeze traps late buyers before resuming the decline. This is a common bull trap , where a temporary price pump gives false hope before another leg down. To sum up , a REAL REVERSAL builds on structure, accumulation, and higher lows—whereas a FALSE BOTTOM is often characterized by brief rallies, exhausted liquidity, and no change in vector trend. Experienced traders wait for confirmation and accumulation before entering a position, not just a temporary pause in a downtrend.
BNC:BLXEducation
by RobertMercer
The Evolution of BitcoinNot Financial Advice Born in 2009, bitcoin was a proof of concept out of an esoteric online forum. It was intended as a secure, swift, P2P solution to transact on a global stage without global scrutiny nor supervision. Sure it worked, but would it last? Then Proof of Work, PoW , showed it's efficacy and prowess as years quickly approach a decade's worth. It's value was recognised as the world gets stunned by CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's rally. But then crypto winter came. So did Ethereum, but this was to be Bitcoin's catalyst. Programmers soon carved DeFi niche propelling Bitcoin's value as a staked token, by 'bridging' the asset onto Ethereum, where a slew of financial products and Dapps began to fight for dominance. The world of Proof of Stake, PoS , began to take shape, cementing itself as the perfect complementary power to Bitcoin's security. Of course, where there is money, bad actors appear, causing CRYPTOCAP:BTC to tumble as rugs get pulled and users are caught in the turmoil of poor regulation. But regulators caught up and has since given the industry a fresh wind for its sails. Institutions pile in, eager to avoid mass adoption, and Bitcoin cements itself as a Store of Value (SoV). To note that there will be multiple stages for this SoV, as the first stage was the acceptance from corporations that Bitcoin is safe: SoV (I). Cue SoV (II) today where blue chips and central banks are circling bitcoin, tempted to bite. And the final form, SoV (III) will be the day when bitcoin is simply, ubiquitous.
BNC:BLX
by googooboyy
GROK's Analysis of Bitcoin's 4-Year Market CyclesIn the past I have published my own analysis of Bitcoin's 4-year market cycles, (cycles 2 and 3). My purpose for analyzing the market cycles was to determine how similar in elapsed times the last two market cycles were to each other. Not only in the length of the overall market cycle but also between the major events, (bear market low to the halving, halving to the market cycle peak, and market cycle peak to the next bear market low). The results of my analysis shocked me. Not only were the last two cycles very close in overall length but they were also (in my opinion) very close in the elapsed times between the major events. I was shocked because an open market, whether it is the stock market, crypto market, or any other openly traded market can be influenced by so many different factors both inside and outside of the market. Internal factors that can influence an openly traded market could include, Supply and demand dynamics, market sentiment (investor psychology) and speculation, and market structure. External factors can include Macroeconomic conditions, Geopolitical events, Regulatory environment, Global events and crises, Interplay and volatility, and Monetary policy and liquidity. Then add into all of these influential factors that the Bitcoin market is traded globally, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year, it never closes. Taking all of these influential factors into consideration, it boggles my mind how there could be so much consistency between the market cycles. Anyway, my reason for publishing this topic again is because my analysis was basic. So I asked GROK to analyze the last three market cycles including the current cycle and compile all the results into a report. Can you analyze the last two Bitcoin 4-year cycles, (Jan. 14, 2015, to Dec. 15, 2018) and (Dec. 15, 2018, to Nov. 21, 2022), and compare them against each other? Then analyze the current market cycle which started on Nov. 21, 2022, and note any similarities with the previous two market cycles. Also, if possible, try to predict when this market cycle peak might occur. Please also include any analysis that you can do on Global liquidity including United States M1 and M2 money supply trends, U.S. money printing, and any relationship / correlation to U.S. interest rates. Please analyze the following along with any other pertinent data and make a comparison between the two cycles: • The duration from bear market low (beginning of the market cycle) to the halving. • The duration from halving to the market cycle peak price. • The duration from the market cycle peaks to the next bear market lows. • The duration of the overall market cycle (bear market low to the next bear market low). • Percentage gain from the bear market low to the market cycle peak. • Percentage loss from the market cycle peak to the next bear market low. • Please include the dates of the bear market lows, market cycle peaks, and halvings. • If possible, list the price corrections from each market cycle that exceed 20%. Also I want you to add any other pertinent data that you find in your analysis. Note: For this report the current price for Bitcoin on July 22, 2025 at 9:40 Eastern Standard time is $119,556.82 Below is a detailed analysis of the last two Bitcoin 4-year cycles (2015–2018 and 2018–2022), a comparison of their key metrics, an examination of the current cycle (starting November 21, 2022), and an exploration of global liquidity, U.S. M1 and M2 money supply trends, U.S. money printing, and their correlation with U.S. interest rates. I’ve included the requested metrics (durations, percentage gains/losses, key dates, and price corrections exceeding 20%) and additional pertinent data such as macroeconomic factors and on-chain metrics. Finally, I provide a speculative prediction for the current cycle’s peak based on historical patterns and current trends. Analysis of Bitcoin 4-Year Cycles Cycle 1: January 14, 2015 – December 15, 2018 Bear Market Low: January 14, 2015, $176.90 Halving Date: July 9, 2016 (block reward reduced from 25 to 12.5 BTC) Market Cycle Peak: December 4, 2017, $19,666 Next Bear Market Low: December 15, 2018, $3,122 Durations Bear Market Low to Halving: 542 days (January 14, 2015 – July 9, 2016) Halving to Market Cycle Peak: 513 days (July 9, 2016 – December 4, 2017) Market Cycle Peak to Next Bear Market Low: 376 days (December 4, 2017 – December 15, 2018) Overall Market Cycle (Bear Market Low to Next Bear Market Low): 1,431 days (~3.92 years) Price Movements Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Peak): ($19,666 - $176.90) / $176.90 = 11,018.09% Percentage Loss (Peak to Next Bear Market Low): ($19,666 - $3,122) / $19,666 = -84.12% Price Corrections Exceeding 20% May 2017: ~30% correction (from ~$2,700 to ~$1,900) June–July 2017: ~40% correction (from ~$3,000 to ~$1,800) September 2017: ~35% correction (from ~$5,000 to ~$3,250) December 2017 – February 2018: ~65% correction (from $19,666 to ~$6,900) April–May 2018: ~35% correction (from ~$9,700 to ~$6,300) November–December 2018: ~50% correction (from ~$6,300 to $3,122) Key Observations The 2015–2018 cycle was characterized by a prolonged accumulation phase post-2015 low, with the halving in July 2016 acting as a catalyst for a bull run. The market peak occurred ~17 months after the halving, driven by retail investor enthusiasm and the ICO bubble. The bear market was severe, with an 84.12% drawdown, exacerbated by the ICO bubble collapse and regulatory concerns. Cycle 2: December 15, 2018 – November 21, 2022 Bear Market Low: December 15, 2018, $3,122 Halving Date: May 11, 2020 (block reward reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC) Market Cycle Peak: November 8, 2021, $67,589 Next Bear Market Low: November 21, 2022, $15,476 Durations Bear Market Low to Halving: 513 days (December 15, 2018 – May 11, 2020) Halving to Market Cycle Peak: 546 days (May 11, 2020 – November 8, 2021) Market Cycle Peak to Next Bear Market Low: 378 days (November 8, 2021 – November 21, 2022) Overall Market Cycle (Bear Market Low to Next Bear Market Low): 1,437 days (~3.94 years) Price Movements Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Peak): ($67,589 - $3,122) / $3,122 = 2,064.22% Percentage Loss (Peak to Next Bear Market Low): ($67,589 - $15,476) / $67,589 = -77.10% Price Corrections Exceeding 20% March 2020 (COVID-19 Crash): ~50% correction (from ~$10,000 to ~$5,000) May–July 2021: ~50% correction (from ~$64,000 to ~$29,000) November 2021 – January 2022: ~40% correction (from $67,589 to ~$40,000) May–June 2022 (Terra/Luna Collapse): ~45% correction (from ~$40,000 to ~$18,000) November 2022: ~25% correction (from ~$20,000 to $15,476) Key Observations The 2018–2022 cycle saw a shorter accumulation phase before the halving, partly due to the COVID-19-induced liquidity injection in 2020. The bull run post-halving was fueled by institutional adoption (e.g., Tesla, MicroStrategy) and retail FOMO, amplified by global stimulus. The bear market was less severe than the previous cycle (77.10% vs. 84.12%), but events like the Terra/Luna collapse and FTX bankruptcy triggered significant corrections. Key Similarities Cycle Duration: Both cycles lasted approximately 4 years (~1,431–1,437 days), reinforcing the 4-year cycle tied to Bitcoin’s halving schedule. Halving as Catalyst: In both cycles, the halving (2016 and 2020) marked the start of significant bullish momentum, with peaks occurring 513–546 days post-halving. Bear Market Drawdowns: Both cycles experienced severe drawdowns (84.12% and 77.10%), though the 2018–2022 cycle was less extreme, possibly due to increased market maturity. Multiple Corrections: Both cycles saw 5–6 corrections exceeding 20%, reflecting Bitcoin’s high volatility during bull and bear phases. Key Differences Percentage Gains: The 2015–2018 cycle had a much higher percentage gain (11,018.09% vs. 2,064.22%), likely due to Bitcoin’s lower starting price and the speculative frenzy of the ICO bubble. External Influences: The 2018–2022 cycle was heavily influenced by macroeconomic events (COVID-19 stimulus, institutional adoption), while the 2015–2018 cycle was more driven by retail speculation and the ICO boom. Correction Triggers: The 2015–2018 bear market was driven by regulatory fears and the ICO bubble collapse, while the 2018–2022 bear market was exacerbated by crypto-specific events (Terra/Luna, FTX). Current Cycle: November 21, 2022 – Present (July 23, 2025) Bear Market Low: November 21, 2022, $15,476 Halving Date: April 19, 2024 (block reward reduced from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC) Current Price (July 22, 2025): $119,556.82 Market Cycle Peak: January 2025, ~$112,000 (based on X post sentiment, not definitive) Durations (As of July 23, 2025) Bear Market Low to Halving: 514 days (November 21, 2022 – April 19, 2024) Halving to Current Date: 460 days (April 19, 2024 – July 23, 2025) Overall Duration to Date: 974 days (November 21, 2022 – July 23, 2025) Peak to Current Date: ~190 days (January 2025 – July 23, 2025, assuming peak at ~$112,000) Price Movements (As of July 23, 2025) Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Current Price): ($119,556.82 - $15,476) / $15,476 = 672.58% Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Assumed Peak): ($112,000 - $15,476) / $15,476 = 623.83% (based on ~$112,000 ATH in January 2025) Percentage Change (Assumed Peak to Current Price): ($119,556.82 - $112,000) / $112,000 = +6.75% (indicating no bear market low yet) Price Corrections Exceeding 20% (November 2022 – July 2025) June–August 2023: ~25% correction (from ~$31,000 to ~$23,000) April–July 2024: ~30% correction (from ~$73,000 to ~$50,000, post-halving dip) February–April 2025: ~20% correction (from ~$112,000 to ~$90,000, based on X sentiment) Similarities with Previous Cycles Duration to Halving: The 514-day period from the bear market low to the halving aligns closely with the 513–542 days in previous cycles. Post-Halving Bullish Momentum: Like the 2016 and 2020 halvings, the April 2024 halving preceded a significant price increase, with Bitcoin reaching ~$112,000 by January 2025 (a ~623% gain from the low). Multiple Corrections: The current cycle has seen at least 3 corrections exceeding 20%, consistent with the 5–6 corrections in prior cycles. Liquidity Correlation: The current cycle’s bull run aligns with global liquidity expansion (e.g., M2 growth from $102T to $107T by February 2025), similar to the 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 bull markets. Differences from Previous Cycles Lower Percentage Gain: The current cycle’s gain (623.83% to assumed peak) is lower than the 2015–2018 cycle (11,018.09%) and 2018–2022 cycle (2,064.22%), reflecting Bitcoin’s maturing market and higher starting price. Influence of ETFs: The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 bolstered demand, a new factor not present in prior cycles. Supply Shocks: The release of long-dormant coins (e.g., Mt. Gox repayments, government seizures) in 2024 caused temporary oversold conditions, unique to this cycle. Global Liquidity and Macroeconomic Analysis U.S. M1 and M2 Money Supply Trends M1 Money Supply (cash, checking deposits): M1 surged during the COVID-19 stimulus in 2020, peaking at ~$20T in 2021, but has since stabilized at ~$18T by mid-2025 due to tighter monetary policy. M2 Money Supply (M1 + savings deposits, money market accounts): Global M2 grew from $102T to $107T between January and February 2025 (3.8% increase), signaling renewed liquidity expansion. U.S. M2 specifically has shown slower growth since 2022, correlating with Bitcoin’s bear market bottom, but recent upticks align with Bitcoin’s rally to $119,556.82. Historical Correlation: Bitcoin’s bull markets (2016–2017, 2020–2021) coincided with rapid M2 growth, while bear markets (2018, 2022) aligned with M2 contractions. The current cycle’s rally since 2023 mirrors rising M2 year-on-year growth. U.S. Money Printing and Interest Rates Money Printing: Quantitative easing (QE) during 2020–2021 (e.g., $4T in U.S. stimulus) fueled Bitcoin’s 2020–2021 bull run. Since 2022, the Federal Reserve shifted to quantitative tightening (QT), reducing liquidity, but recent expectations of rate cuts in 2025 have spurred M2 growth and Bitcoin’s price recovery. U.S. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve raised rates from 0% to ~5.5% between 2022–2023 to combat inflation, correlating with Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market. Speculation of rate cuts in mid-2025 (potentially to 3–4%) has boosted risk assets, including Bitcoin, as lower rates increase liquidity and investor risk appetite. Correlation: Bitcoin has a ~0.94 long-term correlation with global liquidity (M2), with a 56–60 day lag between liquidity increases and price rises. Higher interest rates suppress Bitcoin’s price by reducing liquidity, while anticipated rate cuts in 2025 are driving bullish sentiment. Stablecoin Liquidity Stablecoin supply (e.g., USDT, USDC) is a crypto-native liquidity metric with a stronger short-term correlation to Bitcoin’s price than M2. Positive 28-day changes in stablecoin supply often signal accumulation phases, while sharp declines align with local tops. Current stablecoin supply growth supports Bitcoin’s upward trajectory in 2025. Prediction for Current Cycle Peak Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin peaks ~1,060–1,070 days from the bear market low (35 months), or ~12–18 months post-halving. Based on: Cycle Low: November 21, 2022 Historical Peak Timing: 1,060–1,070 days (October–November 2025) Post-Halving Timing: 12–18 months from April 19, 2024 (April–October 2025) Current Trajectory: Bitcoin’s price at $119,556.82 (974 days from low) and MVRV Z-Score <1 suggest further upside potential. Speculative Peak Prediction: Bitcoin may peak between late Q3 and early Q4 2025 (September–November 2025), potentially reaching $150,000–$320,000, based on historical MVRV ratios (peak MVRV ~8) and liquidity trends. Risks include global recession, equity market corrections, or regulatory shocks. Additional Pertinent Data MVRV Z-Score: Currently <1, indicating undervaluation and room for growth compared to historical peaks (MVRV >3). Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL): The current cycle is in the “Belief” stage, transitioning toward “Euphoria,” consistent with prior bull runs. Exchange Reserves: Declining Bitcoin reserves on exchanges (e.g., CryptoQuant data) indicate HODLing, reducing available supply and supporting price increases. Google Search Trends: Interest in “Bitcoin” and “crypto” peaked in prior cycles (2017, 2021) during bull runs. Current search volume is rising but below 2021 levels, suggesting the cycle may not yet be at its peak. Correlation with Risk Assets: Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached 0.73–0.76 in April 2025, reflecting its sensitivity to broader market sentiment. Conclusion The 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles share structural similarities (4-year duration, halving-driven bull runs, severe bear markets), but differ in scale and drivers. The current cycle (2022–present) mirrors past cycles in timing and liquidity correlation, with unique factors like ETFs and supply shocks. Global liquidity, particularly M2 and stablecoin supply, remains a key driver, amplified by anticipated U.S. rate cuts in 2025. Bitcoin’s current price ($119,556.82) and metrics suggest a peak in September–November 2025, potentially at $150,000–$320,000, though external risks could alter this trajectory. Investors should monitor MVRV, NUPL, and liquidity trends for intra-cycle positioning. As you can see this is a much more comprehensive analysis of the Bitcoin 4-year market cycle than my previous analysis. That being said the end result, at least when it comes to elapsed time similarities was about the same. It's obvious that for whatever reason the past two market cycles are amazingly similar in elapsed time. Moving forward it will be very interesting to watch as the rest of this current market cycle plays out. The major questions yet to be answered include. When will the market cycle peak occur? What will be the peak price? What will be the price of the next bear market low? Looking at the price chart, especially when you view a line chart it is obvious that as Bitcoin ages as an asset, price volatility diminishes. Will this continue? Only time will tell. One thing that is undeniable is this has been an exciting and at times a frustrating market cycle. However, whether it is exciting or frustrating I am very thankful to be involved in it. I realize that this is a fairly long read so if you have made it this far, thank you! I really appreciate everyone who takes the time to read my ideas. Stay safe and get ready for a wild ride over the next five to six months.
BNC:BLXLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
Livermore’s Speculative Blueprint: Are We Near the Final Act?Livermore’s Speculative Blueprint: Are We Near the Final Act? Bitcoin’s price action since 2022 eerily mirrors Jesse Livermore’s legendary “Speculative Chart,” a timeless model of market psychology and price behavior. The attached overlay illustrates how BTC has respected nearly every phase—accumulation, markup, reaction, and reaccumulation—leading us to what might be the most explosive stage yet: the vertical move from Point 8 to 10. 📈 The Setup So Far: • Points 1 to 7: Clear accumulation and steady breakout patterns within a widening mouth structure—exactly as Livermore described. • Point 8 (Now?): BTC breaks out of the upper resistance line, aligning with Livermore’s “all-important action” area. • What’s Next? Point 9 and 10—typically a euphoric, parabolic blow-off top before distribution sets in. 🧠 Psychology Meets Price Each leg of this journey isn’t just about price—it’s about crowd behavior: • From fear to disbelief (Points 1–3), • Hope to confidence (Points 4–6), • And now possibly greed turning into euphoria (Points 8–10). 🕰️ Historical Echoes? If BTC truly follows Livermore’s script, we may be entering the final markup before the inevitable distribution and reversal. 🧭 Key Levels to Watch: • 200K+ may represent the speculative climax. • A rejection from that zone could initiate Points 11–14, characterized by distribution and eventual breakdown. • Long-term holders: brace for volatility. • Traders: this is where legends are made—or unmade. ⸻ 📌 Final Thought: This isn’t just TA. It’s a battle between emotion and logic, euphoria and fear, and it’s playing out on the grandest digital stage of our time. Will Bitcoin complete the Livermore pattern? Bookmark this chart, follow the story, and let’s find out.
BNC:BLXLong
by Vickwayne
1