N1RG34 trade ideas
Ready to test covid lows?It looks bearish and broke down. It can retest it covid lows. It has high debt and net revenue loss. With high interest rates, a good portion of its revenues will go towards interest payments.
NRG still STRONG BUY+++++My original chart I posted to add heavy around $30 as this is very strong support here. Highly oversold on many indicators including osciallators, AO, CCI, RSI, Stochastic RSI, holding support, new moon printed. Target holds of $38 to over $40 in coming weeks
NRG BUY+++++Leave it to douchebag analysts to downgrade a stock after it's taken a large gap down and dropped precipitously on a merger buyout. Nonetheless, this is oversold here. We have 2 zones of near term support. View unchanged we should see over $40 in coming weeks, this is an opportunity to ADD. Add again in $32.45 ish and heavy around $30. New moon phase began which will be helpful to long positions.
NRG BUY+++++ oversold on a buyout mergerNRG is oversold on acquiring another company, overdone should easily bounce back to $42.80 in coming weeks.
NRG - Inverted H&S Inverted H&S waiting for the right arm of the H&S pattern to complete
Showing its bullish phase
Rare Weekly TriangleThis is a rare weekly chart triangle formation. If the break continues bullish it could run to $54 price target based on the height of the back leg. I'll look at some July - Sep OTM calls and see what the IV and Delta's look like. If this runs it will run for a while. I'll start in small and add if/when the trend builds.
Watching 5/10/22
NRG $NRG High-risk Initial ShortNRG $NRG High-risk Initial Short. TP and SL on chart. Move SL on TP. At TP2 trail at 0.5ATR step, 1.5ATR offset.
$NRG nice clean chart looking like a break out. Utilities in general looking like they want upside. This chart looks great. Nice clean looking wedge break, Cyber divergence showing bullish divergence as well as room for a move to the upside :)
NRG triangleInteresting triangle on NRG, definitely worth to watch, energy sector on a good momentum right now, P/E 4, dividend 3.72%
$NRG Bearish ButterflyWeekly Class C bullish divergence, and daily bullish divergence here on NRG as the D leg of the Bearish butterfly develops. Youve also got hidden bullish divergence on the money flow.
23/3/2022 NYSE [NRG]Decision to Sell Short.
Entry Price: $37.51
Stop Loss: $38.08
Target Price: $37.14
Power generators look poised for relief as O&G prices fallA Mean-Reversion Play
Power generators like NRG and PNW have been quite beaten down lately, mostly because of surging oil and natural gas prices as we head into winter. NRG is .8 standard deviations below its mean, with 82% upside to its median price multiple of the last 3 years. PNW is currently trading about 3 standard deviations below where it usually trades in relation to its 200-day EMA, with 29% upside to its median price multiple of the last 3 years. In my opinion, NRG has more attractive fundamentals, but PNW has the more attractive chart. PNW looks particularly ripe for mean reversion here.
Fundamentals
NRG trades at less than 4 price to free cash flow (P/FCF), which makes it a really good value here. It has a forward P/E below 5 and a forward P/S below .4. S&P Global gives its fundamentals an average score of 87/100, and it has an average analyst rating of 8.7/10. It has 28% upside to the average analyst price target. Of the stocks I follow, NRG's price ratios are in the 92nd percentile, and its price-growth ratios are in the 62nd percentile. So it's cheap on both an absolute basis and when you factor in its rate of growth.
PNW's fundamentals are less attractive. The company has been cash flow negative for a couple years. Its price-to-earnings ratio is just under 14, and its price-to-sales ratio is just under 1.9. Its dividend yield is higher, at 5.4% vs. NRG's 3.8%. But it needs to generate cash flow in order to sustain that dividend. PNW's ESG score is really high, at 2.75/3. It gets just a 35/100 fundamentals score from S&P Global and a 4.7 average analyst rating, however, and it has only 7% upside to the average analyst price target. Relative to the other stocks I follow, PNW is expensive, in the 26th percentile for price ratios and the 11th percentile for price growth ratios. So this is probably not a long-term hold for me.
Open Interest a Contrarian Indicator
Open interest from options traders on NRG is quite bullish, with put/call ratio at 0.6. Open interest on PNW is bearish, with a put/call ratio of 1.4. However, I've recently done some back-testing and discovered that open interest is actually a contrarian indicator in recent data. So the bearish open interest on PNW actually implies a better short-term return. The extremely negative z-score I mentioned in the first paragraph also tends to be correlated with high returns in my back-testing. So my algorithmic trading account has gone pretty heavy on PNW, whereas in my discretionary account I am overweight NRG.
The Catalyst
Power generators have recently gotten crushed due to rising natural gas and oil prices, not to mention uranium. Because power generators are so heavily regulated, it's really hard for them to pass rising fuel costs along to their customers.
However, natural gas prices are down sharply off their highs, and oil and uranium both pulled back a bit today:
If this continues, power generators may fly. NRG looks to be finding some support, and I particularly liked the price action in PNW today.
Both NRG and PNW are coming off better-than-expected earnings reports, but NRG's results excluded some large costs related to winter storm Uri, and PNW reported several very unfavorable decisions from Arizona regulators.
Part of the reason for NRG's outperformance is that it was well hedged against rising fuel costs. NRG announced that it will raise its dividend by 8% in the first quarter of 2022 and that it is paying down debt at a pretty impressive rate as it works toward an investment-grade credit rating. NRG paid down $255 million of senior notes through September 30, 2021 and plans to continue reducing its senior notes balance through 2023. This is just a really well-run company, IMO, which makes it a good long-term hold.
NRGThe diverters have already won back, but perhaps this is not the end of the movement, although the deal is very risky. We hold EMA200 during the week, and we also start from the 200th day. In fact, we can also have a large diagonal. In any case, he can make another 10% of the movement.
Possible move with the formation of a large bearish hidden divergence on the rsi on the daily timeframe.
$NRG JUN 45c Whale AlertA whale is buying the JUN 45C in NRG Energy.
I like the chart, gap above on the daily and weekly we can see right at trendline support. I followed the trader here, looking for a move to the upside in the next few weeks.
Also looks like a good entry for a common swing trade if you are not liking the option idea - $34 SL with $45 PT.
NRG breakout* Solid earnings
* Broke out with higher than average volume
* Broke out of 8 month long resistance
$NRG: Rapid Growth in this Customer Focused Utility CompanyGuidance & Growth
NRG is reaffirming its guidance range for 2021 with respect to Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Cash from Operations and Free Cash Flow before Growth Investments (FCFbG) which excludes the full year impact of Winter Storm Uri. NRG's FCFbG for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was $768 million.
NRG has a very compelling value proposition, a unique consumer business that can deliver 15% to 20% annual growth in free cash flow per share over the next five years.
Dividend
A strong dividend growing at 7% to 9% per year. A best-in-class sustainability framework embedded in everything we do and a commitment to maintain a strong balance sheet and continue to be excellent stewards of your capital.
Technicals
You can see we've built up a strong long term base with a recent burst higher. High natural gas prices could be here to stay and NRG could benefit.
NRG Energy, Inc. long (NRG)All description on the chart.
Please, don't forget to like and follow.
Thank you.
$NRG Bullish Pennant, Falling Wedge & Ascending Triangle$NRG on daily chart.
Took a few minutes to publish some easy to recognize, bullish and bearish chart patterns on daily charts. Enjoy!
Note: Ascending triangles are generally seen as bullish but can be bearish when the lower trendline is broken.
