When XLF recovers, they all recoverXLF is at the bottom of a channel from 2012. The fact that we are there is a positive for the whole market.
XLF trade ideas
$XLF Financials ETF - Oversold at Support$XLF Financials ETF - Looking oversold on the daily chart after closing red or flat for 8 straight trading days. Ending the day today right at a key support level just under $24. A bounce in the coming days definitely hinges on the FED not raising rates tomorrow . If they do nothing, I expect a near term price recovery in the XLF back to the $25-$26 range by year end.
With a lot of people expecting the worst, call options are looking fairly cheap in my opinion. I'm looking at the Dec 31st $24.00 strike calls that closed today around 40 cents. With a break even (excl. commissions) of $24.40 and the ETF closing today at $23.91, you would only need a ~2.1% move up from today's close to reach break even and you have about two weeks to do so. Depending on your risk appetite, you could move to the higher delta ITM (in-the-money) calls if you prefer.
If the FED does end up raising rates tomorrow, I think we could easily see $23 or worse by year end. Hedging with a straddle or strangle options play would probably be the smartest approach. But as in everything, higher the risk higher the reward.
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
S&P500 breaks very key weekly supportsLowest close on the S&P500 in 15 months as very key weekly support levels were broken today. We're now staring down at the low of the February dump as my line in the sand for the bulls.
2019 Financial super crisisEven with the earning season we are in right now, does it even matter? If there isnt enough liquidity in the market? In my opinion every pop to the upside is an oppurtunity to just sell from higher prices.
Financials SectorWhats up traders,
Most of the explanation is on the chart - pretty self evident what i am looking at.
SPY low of day is key support tomorrowPotential hourly bear flag setups tomorrow in SPY, QQQ and XLF. Low of today will be key support for tomorrow
Market dumps as bears eye key supportsChecking in on SPY, QQQ and XLF. SPY and tech sectors looking to test recent weekly supports, meanwhile the financial sector lost that support today and has only the low of October left. In my opinion these supports are must hold levels for the market and the two largest sectors in the S&P500
XLF Double Top?Seems like we're done with another real estate and stock market bubble, could be a double top on XLF.
#SP500 Sectors identical path to #SPX - #XLI #XLF and #XLK Just another indicator, they are sectors within the SPX, so they should follow the index, but these sectors are showing the path.
Market resistances are clear on every time frameSPY closed at the low of the week with only the low of October 259.85 as support, and we are likely to test that level first thing next week. It's clear the MA20 on every timeframe is important for SPY, and both the tech and financial sectors and this has been rejecting every bounce attempt on every timeframe so far.
Bears have the momentum on every timeframe; we're watching for changes of 4 hour trends and until then, the bulls are proving nothing to us
My outlook on XLFFor some reason today I took out the chart on XLF and saw my wave projection which I outlined after the materialization of wave 3 and was very surprised. We have a very nice red 9 setup to lock in wave 4. Price is now heading to finish wave 5 at around $24.
I was about to re adjust the wave 4 to fit in the realistic price action but somehow felt that it is better to leave the wave projection as is.
I look forward to seeing wave 5 being achieved. The trade idea is invalidated when price breaks above wave 4.
For those Elliott Wave Theory users please note that I am not utilizing the original Elliott Wave Theory rules. I follow a mechanized version of Elliott Wave created by Mr. Tom Demark which abides different ruleset.
Anyways, stay safe out there and good luck trading.
Confirming The Decline..Big Money Banks Stocks Rolling OverBig Money Bank Stocks, Wall Streets most important and pretigious stock group
are once again confirming the renewed sharp selloff, and breakdown in the stock market.
Goldman Sachs, the crown jewel of investment banking,
and the leading large cap stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
was down over 7 % today !
You should always pay attention to the financials,large cap bank stocks. They hold an important key.
If the banks in XLF roll over from these levels,
then you will have quantified evidence, that something very serious is once again going on, that you might not be aware of.
Big money, sometimes called the "smart money..."
is always the first, and perhaps the most important money,. to leave the stock market.
Shouldn't you follow their lead... ?
THE_UNWIND
11/12/18 540 PM
NEW YORK
XLF - US Financials - bullishAnother US sector chart that could be seeing a bullish 5th wave going forward. The scary thing about these counts is that perhaps they are a little too obvious!
Failed Breakdown, BullishFinancials lost key support on a large gap down.
They then had a large gap up back above that key support.
This is a textbook failed brekdown. Use the island gap levels to set your risk.
5 down in XLF... but the real question is: is it over or not. There is no notable momentum divergence, or any other indication pricewise. Sentiment is negative, but that is clearly not enough to declare the move complete.
XLF coming back ?Inside day . Bouncy at support here and noticeable divergence. Entry above today's high
XLF 1Nice correction across all sectors, however I am fairly bullish off of strong economic data, and especially considering rising interest rates (great for the financial sector). Personally (not well justified) I believe the current unrest in the market is overblown especially for US equities. With BAC and GS also beating estimates and a large portion of the S&P500 reporting within the next few weeks (AMTD, COF soon) I believe underlying sentiment will be reset and the current worries will be swept under the rug. Not necessarily new all time highs but I see a fair margin of upside. Holding Jan/19 XLFc55, looking to close early-mid November.
When Banks Lead The Decline..., Pay Heed !Institutional BIG MONEY took advantage of the overnight bounce in China,
to LIQUIDATE large amounts of stock from US banks and the important financial stocks
in the XLF on 10/22/18, putting price right down to important support, after a loss of 2 % today.
The significance of what happens next this week in the banks, cannot be overstated.
A break of support here,in XLF right now, would have serious implications for the rest of the market.
THE_UNWIND
XLF - also looking quite bullishTo add to the fuel from XLI, we also have fuel from XLF, to drive the market higher
