I went back and redid the ultrabull case, and it seems like we are following the 1987 and 1962 pullbacks quite precisely.
Next, we should see a move back to 2300-2200 over the next 2 months and then rocket to 4000 area and then 5000 areas where we should see the next major top.
When the market changes, we also must.
With the volatility reducing the way it has been, I must jettison my older ultra-bear count to ~1400 and instead view the market in a much more constructive manner. I am now of the opinion that we will only head back to the lows - potentially staying above 2400 in the next month or two, and not really make new lows. After...
Cycles + Price seem to be aligned for a trip to ~210 by 2nd of June. That should be a generational top in bond prices, and generational low in bond yields.
Bond prices should accelerate starting today.
I am sad to think of the reason for this kind of collapse, but definitely a pattern exists. Have a look at the MELI chart, whicch provides a blueprint of the pattern.
In a sentence - it is a expanding triangle, and then a retrace to between 0.5 and 0.618 and then a really strong wave down = 0.764 to 1.0 of the width of the megaphone.
In the case of MELI, we...
So far after periods of long consolidation, the ZB has targetting the 1.618-2.0 fibonacci extension of the prior peak to trough distance. If we apply the same logic here, the move up might just be mid-way now.
Educational post only. Follow at your own risk