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Mar 282023

BTC/USD - Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy Doubles Down on Bitcoin Bet, Holdings Reach $4bn

  • Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy has acquired around 6.5k BTC for a price of around $150m over the last month.
  • The business intelligence company now holds more than $4.14bn worth of Bitcoin.
  • Despite a 74% share price gain YTD, MicroStrategy reported a nearly $250m loss for last quarter.

As Bitcoin begins to increasingly show signs of bullishness, some investors are beginning to think that its current price of around $27k means the world’s biggest cryptocurrency is undervalued. And one such company that’s increasing its exposure to the coin is Microstrategy – the crypto-centric business intelligence company founded by ‘Bitcoin maxi’ Michael Saylor. Let’s take a look at their position and how they’ve been doing recently.

Digital gold

Microstrategy has acquired 6,455 BTC over roughly the past month, at a total cost of around $150m. The purchase brings the value of its total Bitcoin holdings to a whopping $4.14bn – at an average purchase price of $23.2k. It also paid $161m to repay a loan it received from now-collapsed crypto-friendly bank Silvergate, for which the funds were sourced from a $340m share-sale. Microstrategy was founded in 1989, but has achieved mainstream recognition in recent years due to its nature as a major advocate for Bitcoin and its large financial bets on the coin.

How is MicroStrategy holding up?

Like those of most crypto-centric companies at the moment, MicroStrategy’s balance sheet has seen better days. Last month, the company reported a Q4 2022 loss of almost $250m, which was significantly worse than the $90m loss it reported the same quarter a year prior. But the Nasdaq listed company has also been having a pretty positive first quarter of the year, with its share price gaining more than 74% YTD. Probably as a result of Bitcoin seeing gains of 63% over the same period. If Bitcoin continues to follow its bullish trend as the banking sector wobbles, Micro”Strategy” might have a winning one.
Illustration by TradingView

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Mar 212023

BTC/USD: Bitcoin Futures Interest Surges as Bulls Return to the Market

  • Bitcoin seems to be back on a bullish trend as it reached $28k after breaking through resistance at $25k.
  • Interest in Bitcoin options is gathering momentum and has reached a new yearly high.
  • Uncertainty in the banking sector is making BTC an increasingly attractive asset to investors.

The Bitcoin community suffered over the course of 2022 along with most of the crypto world, and many have been wondering when the bulls would return. Over the past two weeks however, there have been signals that BTC may have somewhat shaken off its reputation as a high-risk asset. Not least because the banking sector is beginning to look a little risky itself.

Bring in the bulls

Over the past week, Bitcoin has seen fairly impressive growth – logging a 15% increase in price. The total market cap of the crypto space has also added 8% – now sitting at an impressive $1.125tn. Bitcoin in particular however seems to be in a particularly bullish phase. Having struggled to break through resistance at the $25k mark since it dropped below it in June last year, BTC has smashed through over the weekend to a price of $27.7k at the time of writing.

Interest in Bitcoin futures has also been on the rise, with the amount of USD locked rising by 7% over the past month to a total of roughly $12bn – a new yearly high. Market sentiment of Bitcoin seems now to be markedly more positive than it was at the beginning of last year.

The banking crisis

An important factor for the increased interest in Bitcoin seen recently is uncertainty surrounding the banking sector. In the space of just a few weeks, several crypto-friendly banks including Silvergate entered liquidation, investment bank Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in the second largest bank failure in US history, and Credit Suisse has had to seek emergency funding from UBS.

Because of this crisis, Bitcoin’s principles of self-custody and decentralization are making BTC seem like a safe bet for investors amid market uncertainty. Stablecoins too are beginning to look uncertain amid increased regulatory scrutiny. This may also be contributing to increased inflows to the largest cryptocurrency by market cap as a more stable alternative.
Larry Costales / Unsplash
Mar 082023

BTC/USD: Analysts Fear Bitcoin Death Cross Could Spell Trouble

  • A Bitcoin death cross has appeared which typically signifies a bearish short-term outlook.
  • Crypto confidence has also been shaken by concerns surrounding crypto bank Silvergate.
  • Some analysts have pointed out that death crosses can be an unreliable signal.

An ominous signal for Bitcoin has emerged recently, and it has investors worried that there could be trouble ahead for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. BTC has been faring fairly well since the start of the year with a 33% rally after the collapse of FTX prompted a sell off. How long this rally is to continue however, remains to be seen.

What’s the big deal?

A death cross involves an asset’s 50-day moving average moving below its 200-day moving average. It typically indicates a bearish short-term outlook due to sustained selling pressure. A Bitcoin death cross also occurred before the wider crypto market’s price crash of 2017-2018. However some say that death crosses are an unreliable signal of an impending sell off. Many of the death crosses which have appeared in the S&P 500 over the years have seen average gains outweighing average losses in the following weeks.

What’s causing the death cross?

BTC has already suffered a 5% drop amid concerns surrounding the capitalization of Silvergate crypto bank – concerns which even the White House has echoed. And if crypto bears were looking for further reason to sell their assets – this would be it. It’s not just concerns in the crypto industry causing the bearishness either. Bitcoin met significant resistance at the $25k mark in mid February, and Jerome Powell’s testimony on the Fed’s monetary policy yesterday, where he stated his belief that inflation could climb higher, caused further investor panic. Volatility, however, is something that Bitcoin investors are no stranger to.
Michael Förtsch / Unsplash
Mar 012023

Bitcoin Dominance: BAYC Creators Move Into BTC NFTs, but Can the Hype Last?

  • The creators of BAYC have released their own BTC NFT project powered by Bitcoin Ordinals.
  • The number of BTC Ordinals inscriptions has surpassed 200k.
  • NFT enthusiasts are wondering whether Bitcoin NFT hype can be sustained.

Recently, the NFT market has been showing some pretty strong signs of recovery. Gas fees for NFT-related Ethereum smart contracts have risen by 97% over the past two months. But the development that’s being talked about more in the space is Bitcoin Ordinals – NFT-esque inscriptions on the Bitcoin blockchain which just got an endorsement from a major name in NFTs.

Yuga Labs enters the game

Yuga Labs (the creators of the hugely popular Bored Ape Yacht Club collection) have dipped their toes in the BTC Ordinals space, with a 300-piece NFT collection called TwelveFold. It’s a smaller number of items than Yuga’s collections normally hold, as BTC inscriptions cannot be created in large batches as they can with Ethereum NFTs. Whether its success will reach the same heights as the BAYC remains to be seen, but it’s certainly an endorsement of the Bitcoin NFT scene.

Will the Ordinals craze continue?

While BTC NFT’s have been rising in popularity since they were launched and the NFT space as a whole is showing signs of recovery, some are wondering where the success of BTC NFTs can be sustained. Bitcoin fees have been rising in tandem with the creation of BTC Ordinals – with the excitement peaking on February 15 when over $170k in inscription fees were paid. Since then however, the amount of fees being generated are starting to slip – reaching just $100k at the start of this week. This could be considered slightly concerning for the future of the technology.

On the other hand, the technology’s popularity might be ensured by its relevance to other blockchains. Ordinals have been implemented into Litecoin, and Bitcoin layer 2 chains such as Stacks have been pushing their compatibility with Ordinals with plans for BTC NFT wallets and projects. As for BTC itself, the coin has remained fairly flat with a 1.7% gain over the past month. However, when the NFT space is ready to return to its market highs Ethereum may have found itself new competition.
Yiğit Ali Atasoy / Unsplash
Feb 222023

Bitcoin dominance: Ordinals are Taking the NFT Space and the Crypto World by Storm.

  • Ordinals gives Bitcoin(BTC) increased compatibility for NFTs, and its popularity has been on the rise.
  • The excitement has been spilling over into Bitcoin layer 2 tokens like Stacks(STX).
  • Ethereum(ETH) NFT trading volumes have been surging over the past week.

Despite the indisputable BTC dominance of the crypto space, the OG crypto has never been the most compatible blockchain for NFTs – Ethereum’s greater level of smart contract compatibility certainly makes it the preferable. However, some believe that this could be about to change – thanks to a new protocol called Ordinals. Which allows images, audio and more to be inscribed on a transaction on the Bitcoin blockchain.

What’s the big deal?

Although Ordinals was in fact launched weeks ago, its popularity has been sweeping through the cryptoverse – with over 150k Bitcoin NFTs (or “inscriptions” as they are being called) created already. The technology was also made available on the Litecoin network – a popular cryptocurrency originally birthed through a fork of Bitcoin. Despite the rising popularity of Ordinals, some Bitcoin “purists” have argued that it dilutes the network from its purpose as a storage of wealth.

The aspect of Ordinals which is causing all the hype is the fact that, unlike NFTs, there is no need for a token. Ordinals allow images and audio to be “inscribed” directly onto Satoshis – the smallest denomination of BTC. Some developers however have pointed out that it may take time for the usability of Originals to reach the quality as that of NFTs on Ethereum(ETH) and Solana(SOL) – both of which have been tweaking their NFT technology for years.

What has the effect been so far?

The excitement has caused some tokens related to enhancing Bitcoin’s DeFi capabilities to rise rapidly. One such token is Stacks. Despite remaining down significantly from its all-time high of $2.90 in December 2021, the project’s STX token has surged by almost 100% since Friday – now sitting at a price of $0.66. It’s also not just Bitcoin NFTs that have been taking off recently. The past week has seen Ethereum NFT trading volumes more than double as OpenSea alternative, Blur, attracts users with its generous rewards model. Could these be the first signs of a recovery for the NFT space?
愚木混株 cdd20 / Unsplash
Jan 312023

Bitcoin gets difficult

As if it wasn’t already hard enough, Bitcoin is now harder to mine than it’s ever been.

  • Bitcoin mining difficulty reached a new all-time high after jumping by 4.68% on Sunday. Mining difficulty is the amount of computational power that’s needed to facilitate transactions on the Bitcoin network. A higher difficulty indicates a larger number of BTC miners.
  • While not at an all-time high, the network's hash rate is also up over the course of last year. Bitcoin’s hash rate (which measures the volume of proof-of-work calculations being carried out), has rocketed by 67% YoY.
  • These stats might indicate that BTC miners aren’t losing faith, despite BTC falling by 40% over the past year. In addition to the price drop, rising energy costs have been squeezing the industry. The bankruptcy of BTC mining giant, Core Scientific, in December probably didn’t help morale either. Hang in there guys.
愚木混株 cdd20 / Unsplash
Jan 272023

Bitcoin bruises Tesla

Tesla remains in its pro-Bitcoin stance, but it’s not doing its balance sheet any favors.

  • Tesla reported a $34m impairment charge on its Bitcoin holdings over Q4 , with the value of its supply dropping from $218m to $184m. As it stands BTC is up 38% YTD despite being down 38% YoY.
  • The company got serious about BTC in February 2021 when it purchased $1.5bn worth. By the second quarter of 2022 however, it had sold 75% of its Bitcoin holdings – with its digital assets sales for the period amounting to $936m.
  • Despite the selloff, Tesla remains the fifth-largest public company that holds Bitcoin with roughly 10.7k BTC. It also reported that it had neither purchased nor sold any BTC during its final quarter last year – indicating that it’s in it for the long run.
Manny Becerra / Unsplash
Jan 162023

Trading blows

The battle between Grayscale and the SEC rages on, with Grayscale making their position crystal clear.

  • Crypto investment firm Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has called the SEC’s argument “illogical”, in its decision to not allow the company to open a Bitcoin spot ETF. The litigation first began in June last year.
  • The SEC is maintaining that the $7.8bn company has not shown how it would protect investors from “fraudulent and manipulative” practices. That being said however, the SEC has approved Bitcoin-based ETFs for the company, but not spot Bitcoin ETFs.
  • The statement comes as the discount for Grayscale’s Bitcoin futures ETF is hovering around all-time highs – sitting at around 39.68%. Recently however, its share price has been reaping the rewards of the recent crypto rally – rising by over 30% last week.
Tingey Injury Law Firm / Unsplash
Jan 032023

Unfair to the core

One of the longest running contributors to Bitcoin Core has suffered a hack. All is fair in love and crypto, it seems.

  • Luke Dashjr, a developer of the software which operates Bitcoin nodes, has suffered a hack to the tune of at least 217 BTC – worth around $3.6m. Dashjr said that the hack was the result of his private key being compromised.
  • The hack was high profile enough for Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, to reach out – tweeting that if the funds are ever sent to Binance they will be frozen. He also said that the hack highlights some of the risks of having a self-custody wallet.
  • Dashjr also warned that users should refrain from using Bitcoin Knots – a Bitcoin wallet which is operated using his now-compromised key. It just goes to show that even crypto veterans can fall victim to crypto crime. Keep those keys safe folks.
Unsplash
Dec 072022

Too difficult for some

Bitcoin miners haven’t exactly been thriving this year – with some deciding it’s no longer worth the time.

  • Bitcoin mining difficulty has fallen by 7.5% in the single biggest drop since it plummeted by almost 28% when crypto mining was banned in China in July 2021. The lowered difficulty and resulting cheaper operating costs might provide miners with some welcome breathing room.
  • It’s not a great sign though, as it means that BTC miners are starting to unplug their machines. A combination of rising energy prices and a diminished BTC price has caused mining profitability to slide and debts to begin to accumulate.
  • There’s also been an influx of mining machines hitting the market, with the average price of an ASIC mining machine dropping by 80% YoY. With Ethereum having switched to proof-of-stake this year, crypto miners seem to be running out of good options.
Muhammad Asyfaul/ Unsplash
Nov 222022

Investors are jittery af

Bitcoin’s been taking a beating this year, and it’s only being made worse by news of a crypto lender in trouble.

  • Bitcoin HODLers are on the edge of their seats with the potential bankruptcy of Genesis. Whilst not yet having filed for bankruptcy, news of the possibility caused BTC to drop to $15,479 – its lowest level in two years. Binance has also ruled out a potential buyout of the lender.
  • These are dark days for BTC investors, with most addresses now in the red. Data by IntoTheBlock shows that 51% of total Bitcoin addresses are below the purchasing value of their holdings, with pandemic-related gains looking like a thing of the past.
  • Bitcoin miners aren’t faring any better. A perfect storm of rising electricity costs and plummeting BTC price means that mining is barely profitable – if at all. With Genesis in “constructive talks” with several creditors, perhaps a buyout would ease Bitcoiners’ concerns.
愚木混株 cdd20 / Unsplash
Nov 092022

A 2-year low

The entire crypto industry has been rattled by a series of unfortunate events that would make Lemony Snicket proud, causing catastrophic waves across the market.

  • Bitcoin has reached its lowest price in almost two years, currently below $18k. Ethereum touched a four-month low and is trading at a price of just $1,220. Crypto stocks like exchange Coinbase and crypto miner Riot Blockchain also suffered yesterday, dropping by 10.7% and 7.3% respectively.
  • There’s a variety of factors causing crypto’s most recent slump, including newly released CPI data leaving investors spooked and uncertainty surrounding the result of the midterm elections which could determine upcoming regulation.
  • What’s really shaken up the industry however is FTX being bought by Binance, and fears of contagion spreading from the platform’s liquidity issues. Dogecoin dropped by 20% yesterday and Solana plummeted more than 50% since the start of the week with pretty much every coin seeing drastic sell-offs and sending the overall crypto market cap into its worst week since mid-June.
Ussama Azam / Unsplash
Nov 082022

A Silk Road seizure

The Department of Justice never forgets, especially when it comes to $3.36bn worth of Bitcoin.

  • The DoJ has seized $3.36bn worth of Bitcoin that was stolen in a hack of the darknet marketplace Silk Road 10 years ago. With more than 50k BTC seized, it’s the second largest asset-seizure in crypto history.
  • The funds were stolen by James Zhong in 2012 after he manipulated the site’s payment processor to send the funds to his account. Zhong pleaded guilty to the charges in Manhattan in the same year, but the whereabouts of the funds had not been known until recently.
  • Crypto hacking has done anything but die down over the past decade. Last month became the worst month on record for crypto hacks with $718m worth of assets stolen, and Chainalysis reports that this year is on track to become the worst-ever year for crypto theft.
Kanchanara / Unsplash
Oct 262022

Taking back $20k

The crypto world’s looking a little brighter this morning with speculation on the Fed’s rate hikes pushing the industry’s valuation back over $1tn.

  • Crypto staged a comeback yesterday for its best day in over a month. BTC managed to at last retake the $20k mark and the industry as a whole managed to reclaim its $1tn value once again, ETH has rallied 15% in the last 36 hours to levels unseen since before the Merge, while ADA and SOL enjoyed the rally with gains of over 10% each in that time.
  • There’s a bunch of external factors propping up digital assets. The growth of home prices has slowed considerably, leading some to predict the Fed might slow the pace of its rate hikes (which helped the equities market to its third straight day of gains too). There have also been a number of promising earnings from large-cap companies like Coca-Cola to buoy hope for the overall economy.
  • There’s been some bullish news from across the pond as well, with UK lawmakers voting to recognize crypto as a regulated financial instrument. The country’s new PM, Rishi Sunak, also has a bit of a reputation as a crypto bro and many are hoping that will lead to a softening of regulation toward digital assets and therefore wider use cases and adoption. LFG.
David McBee / Pexels
Oct 242022

Will we get an Uptober this year?

BTC bulls are bored of Bitcoin’s stable price, but time is running out for this month to be the ‘Uptober’ investors were hoping for.

  • Bitcoin’s price has been uncharacteristically stable recently, with its 20-day rolling volatility lower than that of the Nasdaq for the first time since 2020. It’s got investors wondering when the next significant upward price movement might be.
  • Historically, October or ‘Uptober’ has been a positive month for BTC price, with the coin making gains in 10 out of the 13 Octobers since its creation. With only one week remaining however, it’s not looking like any gains are in store for BTC, which is still hovering around $19k.
  • Some think that a lower volatility will benefit Bitcoin, as institutional investors are more likely to invest in something with more predictability. For those already HODLing however, it’s less exciting, with BTC down by 60% since the start of the year.
愚木混株 cdd20 / Unsplash
Oct 192022

The second-biggest outflow in history

In another development of the recent Bitcoin saga, investors are now switching from selling mode to accumulation mode.

  • Bitcoin saw a mass exodus from Coinbase Pro on Tuesday after 48k BTC (worth $940m) was removed from the exchange in the second biggest crypto outflow of all time. As a platform popular with institutional investors, it might indicate that they're putting the brakes on selling for a while.
  • Over 121k BTC (nearly $2.4bn) has left exchanges in the past 30 days. A spike in outflows is generally seen as a bullish signal because it means traders are wanting to hold onto their stash instead of engaging in selling – some analysts are even predicting a bottom for BTC because, historically, that’s what’s followed huge outflows like this.
  • Bitcoin’s correlation to the stock market hit an all-time high last month, with its price still strongly affected by economic data reports. Recently however, it’s been uncharacteristically stable with its volatility hitting a 2-year low despite the wobble in traditional markets – in fact, crypto has proven to be one of the best-performing asset classes of Q3. Who woulda thought.
Jeremy Bezanger / Unsplash
Oct 142022

The correlation continues

Bitcoin’s moves are increasingly tied to real-world markets, with CPI data shaking up the crypto space once again.

  • Bitcoin has reaffirmed it's not as separate from real world markets as some might hope, after coming close to touching $18k with the release of Fed’s CPI report. BTC’s also fallen by around 20% over the last two months amid rapidly rising inflation rates, but it’s managed to recover somewhat from its most recent dip to a price of around $19.6k.
  • Analysts are noticing a pretty strong correlation between BTC and traditional finance. In recent weeks, Bitcoin’s been broadly following the performance of indexes like the S&P 500 as well as equities markets, with the rest of the cryptoverse following in its footsteps.
  • Crypto-related stocks have also been struggling to withstand the inflation pressure.
    Coinbase dropped by as much as 11% with the release of the CPI data, while Mircrostrategy and Riot Blockchain are both struggling with drops in the region of 7%. So much for its independence from traditional markets.
愚木混株 cdd20 / Unsplash
Oct 132022

The SEC ain't DTF with ETFs

A pro-crypto group tells the SEC “enough is enough” with its dithering on whether spot Bitcoin ETFs should be legal.

  • Grayscale has filed an opening brief in its Bitcoin ETF battle against SEC. The Digital Currency Group (who owns Grayscale) is fighting back against the denial of its Bitcoin spot ETF, saying its “unfair and discriminatory” to approve a futures ETF but deny its own ETF application.
  • It’s not the only group struggling with the SEC’s rejections. New York based fund WisdomTree also had their requests denied the same day the brief came out after trying to register its own spot BTC ETF for listing on the Cboe BZX Exchange, with the SEC saying its actions were taken to “prevent fraudulent practices”.
  • As it stands, the SEC has never approved a spot Bitcoin ETF despite approving Bitcoin futures ETFs for groups including ProShares and Valkyrie in 2021, despite receiving a fair bit of criticism from lawmakers for doing so. Perhaps the SEC will eventually turn on its heels but sometimes, but all is fair in love and crypto so who knows.
Reinhart Julian / Unsplash
Oct 112022

The battle for BTC

Bitcoin miners are having to pull out all the stops as difficulty levels hover around their highest of all time.

  • Mining difficulty on the Bitcoin network is up by 14% in the two weeks ended on Monday to touch new highs, representing the largest two-week adjustment since May when it rose by 22%. A higher mining difficulty means lower revenues and pressured margins as more time is taken to correctly guess the cryptographic hash.
  • Mining-centric companies are struggling to keep their head above water amid an already lagging crypto market. Argo Blockchain was forced to raise $27m last week to stay afloat, and mining data center Compute North filed for bankruptcy last month. Some pretty substantial BTC price gains will be needed to ease the pressure.
  • BTC mining ain't what it used to be, and nor is BTC’s value, with prices oscillating around $20k since June. A technical indicator called the Bollinger bandwidth, which is popular for gauging volatility, has shrunk to its narrowest since 2020 – the past five times it's been similarly narrow in the last two years, BTC has gone on to slide up to 15% in the weeks following.
Rodion Kutsaiev / Unsplash
Oct 052022

Bit bullions

Is Bit the new bullion? It very well might be as Bitcoin's correlation with gold becomes stronger every day.

  • Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has reached its highest level in the last year, with investors being lured away from the so-called ‘inflation hedges’ by the strength of the dollar and high bond yields. ‘Digital gold’ has never been a more appropriate nickname.
  • Both Bitcoin and gold have seen drastic drops this year, although over the last two days BTC rose by more than 5%. Rising interest rates are partly to blame for Bitcoin’s plummeting price this year, as institutional investors are less willing to hop on board.
  • Ironically, BTC is often closely correlated with traditional markets, despite its founding ethos being an alternative to those systems, and as the largest cryptocurrency by market cap at $379bn – its relationship with traditional finance is important to the entire crypto space.
Jonathan Borba / Unsplash