First things first: This is about the longer-term direction of the market. We're not advising against short positions here. In the short and medium term, they can lead to significant profits. However, given the seemingly fragile nature of the current markets, I'd like to point out the COT (Commitment of Traders) data and the corresponding levels in the Volatility...
Trade for 11th March (Mon) - 12th March (Tue)
UX1 went a bit of overshoot with Tech sold off, which also influenced by the weekly Option expiration (rather than Non-farm). However, there is no indication on fear in the market. Our model suggested it will still go compressing till Tuesday (post CPI data)
Entry price reference: 15.2 or higher (this is not at...
Trade for 4th March (Mon) - 5th March (Tue)
With such a hot market in place (still very strong momentum), even though spot vs UX1 has built a big gap on friday and in long run there is no sign of "fear" yet. However the contradict move for UX1 March on Friday indicate a long VIX model signal.
Entry price reference: 14.05 or lower
UX1 Indicative range: Low -...
With PPI data release on Friday (again.. there may be a surprise as like Wednesday CPI). Model is expecting a surge on UX1 (March future).
Entry point: 14.95 or lower (watch for how Market goes on Thursday and Friday APAC/EU morning session)
Profit take: 90bps from Entry or 15.8 (whichever hit). In particular if PPI is much hotter than expected (est. 0.1% on...
Trade for 12th Feb 2024 - 13th Feb 2024 (Mon and Tues)
With CPI data release on Tuesday, SPX is just slightly above the 5000 threshold (subject to how long it is able to hold) and SPX Monthly Option expiration on Friday. Model is very committed with a long vix signal which led an average lift of 50+ basis pt
Any "bad" CPI data point higher than expected could...
VIX Futures are currently sitting at the 200 SMA on the 1-Hour Timeframe at Resistance with Bearish Divergence a looks to be preparing to go down to fill the gap it created on the spot market, likely after the CPI release.
Trade for 8th Feb 2024
As now ES and NQ is on the high end, there is a expectation of a mini pull back at least for profit take.
Entry price reference: 13.40 or lower
UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 13.05 - 14
Stop loss: 13.2 30 mins post US open (tighter stop loss)
Profit take: 13.6 - 13.8 anytime thru out the day
As now is in this strange pattern where ES up, Vix up, signal continue to keep as Long spread signal, also recent VIX curve move is parallel move in front 3 months (long spread help to keep risk low as no real direction in short or long vix)
Entry price reference: 1.06 or better (UX1 is 14.12)
UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 1.01 - 1.11 (UX1 is 13.8 -...
This is for Long UX1 (Feb) positioning (1 day),
Entry price reference: 14.6 or better
UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 14.3 - 15
Stop loss: 14.2 post 30 minutes of US open (i.e. post 10am)
Profit take: any time if hit 14.8
Very short stunt as ES's momentum is very hard to keep up with many earning release yet to come.
Next week
- Johnson & Johnson 23/1 Tue
-...
The new year commenced with volatility in the stock markets. Currently, market nervousness appears to be subsiding, but yields for US bonds are exhibiting fluctuations. Consequently, we anticipate a further increase in the VIX to approximately 16 points.
Subsequently, a decline towards 14.12 points is anticipated, which would be considered bullish for the stock markets.
This is for Long UX1 (Jan) positioning (1 day), Entry point is 13-13.05
Today PPI is another eco driver for the week. Indicative trading range for Friday is 12.8 - 13.5.
If PPI is muted. set stop loss at 12.8 post 30 mins of US open OR profit take any time 13.3 during the day (whichever hit first)
If PPI again is hotter than expected, set profit take higher to...
The kickoff of the year 2024 unfolds with turbulence in the US stock markets. Consequently, the VIX opened with a gap-up. In the daily chart, it is evident that the VIX is struggling to overcome a bearish order block. Given the context of the significant gap, we anticipate a decline in volatility. This anticipated scenario is directly associated with rising stock...
True market capitulation fear events are marked with semi generational fear levels of the charts
Were at a point of a resistance , but could easily slice through this level if we get increasing levels of uncertainty and panic entering the markets
Could we see 30? Possibly
While more and more investors believe that a sharp price correction has already started and more and more retail traders are opening short positions on the indices, divergence indicators suggest that the VIX could fall soon.
The H2 chart shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle - a trend continuation formation when the bullish trend is in place.
The price of...
This charts shows the difference between the VIX Future Front contract and the following contract.
If the difference is negative the front Contract is more expensive than the next following --> We have a Backwardation
Dieser Chart zeigt die Differenz zwischen dem VIX Future Front-Kontrakt und dem nachfolgenden Kontrakt.
Wenn die Differenz negativ ist, ist der...
I compare the VIX Futre front contract with the following month and with the CBOE VIX Index.
Ich vergleiche den VIX-Future-Frontkontrakt mit dem Folgemonat und mit dem CBOE VIX Index.
getting long vix for the first time in a while, dont trade it often because its spreads are wide and the interest rate over night is high. But this is true capitulation, this market has entered mania territory. absolute mania.
Buy equities because "muh ai dog pictures" at your own peril.
