Corn Bullish butterfly counts as complete.... corn has been taking a beatin......Lets see if we can reverse this market. close in a bullish hammer candle today would be a start,
ZCZ2027 trade ideas
long cornCorn is touching its 200 WMA and almost its 50 MMA.
RSI is around 20 on the daily and weekly chart.
Could be a turnaround point.
Is A Short-Covering Rally in Corn Imminent? There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamentals for corn remain bearish ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. Last month, USDA caught many by surprise revising ‘23 corn yields to record-highs of 177.3 bushels per acre. Since then, corn futures have continuously grinded lower. But, could a short-covering rally be in the offing soon?
Per the last CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed money funds have amassed a net-short position of 280,151 contracts (combined futures & options). That represents the largest net-short position in corn since 2019. While corn has continued making new lows, each of the last 4 contract lows have come in conjunction with less and less conviction - namely bullish divergence on the standard 14-day RSI. Moreover, the volume profile has gradually softened since the January USDA report. Thus, it's possible that all of the bears have already sold. The first step in a short-covering rally is getting bears to stop selling - and a friendly WASDE report on Thursday bares the potential to make that happen.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Corn is getting back up- The market has been moving within a bearish channel since the beginning of December 2023, prices are therefore following a bearish trend in the medium term.
- Since the last impact on the bottom of the channel at $436.30, investor appetite has clearly returned, leading the market to a strong rebound. This change in sentiment was also confirmed on the DMI indicator, which now shows strong buying pressure still increasing, within an increasingly directional movement.
Additionally, both the 21- and 34-period exponential moving averages are currently registering a bullish crossover, for the first time since the start of the downtrend.
- The next potential target of $458.10 (38.2% Fibonacci) is currently in sight for the market. That said, the behavior of technical indicators also allows us to envisage an extension of the upward movement outside the bearish channel, towards the 50% Fibonacci at $464.85, with $461.15 as intermediate resistance.
This scenario must however be confirmed by a clear break of $458.10
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
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Corn descent: not done yet?If you're looking at corn futures waiting for the price to bottom out, you might have a while longer to wait. Recall that prices didn't firm last year until the end of May.
Yes, prices are lower now, but they've only just breached the high end of the USD3.00-4.50 range where they spent most of their time for several years after 2013.
For now, we'd leave it in the elevator.
Corn To 843’6 In 12-18 Month TimeframeGood luck folks.
I believe what is to come in the near future is creeping upon us. As I sit here and look at what’s around me. The amount of food sitting in stores gives the illusion to be easily deceived. Think of this as a Judas Swing of the entire story and narrative. I pray for the future
How to define a "Ranging" Market using the MACD-vOne of the most challenging & frustrating tasks for a trader,
is to define with a rules-based (systematic) methodology
and identify on a real-time basis,
when the market is in a trading range.
Using the MACD-v both of these goals are achieved.
The market is defined as being as "Ranging"
(one of the Core 7 Range Rules/States)
when the MACD-v is between the -50 and 50 ranges,
for more than 25 bars consecutively.
🌽 Corn coming at you 🚢Fundamental Data👇
🌽Corn Marketing Year Progress (23/24)
▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░ 25.61%
Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎
406,680 Metric Tons (A marketing year low)
⬇️ 194,388 Metric Tons week vs. last week
⬇️ 92,388 Metric Tons this week vs. last week
⬇️ 391,474 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week
Export Sales🗺️🫰
24,458,454 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
⬆️ 6,708,737 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊
Bullish 🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 24%
Neutral 🟫🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 50%
Bearish 🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 19%
Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕
🟢 Marketing year high in export sales was achieved for US Corn
🟢 China has been an active buyer of US grains and oilseeds - Corn, Wheat, Sorghum, and Soybeans
🟢 Corn bids are inverted in many pockets of the Western Corn Belt showing a reflection of the difficulty of purchasing cash corn as well as decent processing margins (Ethanol)
🔴/🟢 Drought is starting to bounce back in the Corn growing states but still better then last year (more important for 2024)
🔴 / 🟢 Funds are now net short the most amount of futures & options since the start of the most recent bull market in Corn (2020)
🔴 No notable *new and increasing* demand on balance sheet that isn’t expected to be exports
🔴 Panama Canal congestion continues to plague logistics increasing freight costs to navigate through the Panama Canal (most of US Corn is exported through the US Gulf and pending destination, may need to use the Panama Canal to get to market)
🔴 Mississippi river levels are at +5 year lows.
🔴 Seasonal builds of ethanol stocks increase from here to February (pressures Ethanol margins)
Fund Net Position💰
Chicago Corn: -206,478 Contracts (Position as of 11/28)
MATIF Corn: -6,450 Contracts (Position as of 11/24)
Corn Commentary 🌽
Corn appears to have been priced just right enough to attract demand with a marketing year high in export sales achieved *prior* to the collapse in futures prices last week. This week we will learn if those low prices incentivized even *more* export demand when the USDA releases export sales figures on Thursday.
Regardless, there is still plenty of Corn out there and it’s becoming even more difficult to move it due to:
1) Low water levels on the Mississippi River
2) Panama Canal congestion due to low water levels.
Both of which are helping attract Corn to be delivered by rail to Mexico and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) for export where destinations in Latin America and Far East Asia do not need to traverse through the Panama Canal.
That’s the current and main story the trade is watching from a domestic point of view, but what lies ahead?
Largely we’re getting ready to discuss planting decisions for *next years crop* and much of that influence will come from what happens in South America regarding weather and politics, both of which are unpredictable but will have an immense impact on the world supply and demand of grains and oilseeds. (Stay tuned and watch our X news feed for the story to develop)
Technicals💹
Corn successfully reversed and broke the downtrend we mentioned last week but failed to settle above it. Regardless, there is now a rangebound trade between 4.70 and 4.93 that can go either way.
We'll note that the technicians will say that resistance could break and Corn could rally significantly, but there is still a +2.15 billion bushel expected carryout out there and would higher prices attract demand or kill it?
Watch the following levels for now👇
🟢 Current Upside Targets: 4.895, 4.9325
🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.75, 4.705, 4.62
Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️
This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
🌽Corn got nuked, what now? 🚢📌 Note, First notice day for December futures is November 30th, if you want ZERO risk of delivery, you will have to liquidate or roll your December futures position by the close on November 29th.
Fundamental Data👇
🌽Corn Marketing Year Progress (23/24)
▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░ 24.06%
Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌱
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ 96%
Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎
406,680 Metric Tons ( A marketing year low )
⬇️ 194,388 Metric Tons week vs. last week
⬇️ 92,388 Metric Tons this week vs. last week
⬇️ 391,474 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week
Export Sales🗺️🫰
22,530,694 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
⬆️ 6,631,248 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊
Bullish 🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 32%
Neutral 🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 36%
Bearish 🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 25%
Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕
🔴 No notable *new and increasing* demand on balance sheet that isn’t expected to be exports
🔴 Drought is receding in the US, but several pockets remain (more important for 2024)
🔴 Managed money continues to increase their net short in Corn futures, but in Europe they have reduced their net short (slightly)
🔴 Panama Canal congestion continues to plague logistics increasing freight costs to navigate through the Panama Canal (most of US Corn is exported through the US Gulf and pending destination, may need to use the Panama Canal to get to market)
🔴 Mississippi river levels are returning to +5 year lows.
🔴 Seasonal builds of ethanol stocks increase from here to February (pressures Ethanol margins)
🟢 Mexico continues to purchase Corn in increasing amounts (Fastest pace in over +5 years)
🟢 China has been active in the Sorghum market with the best export sales pace in +3 years (what if they want to purchase US Corn next?)
Fund Net Position💰
Chicago Corn: -185,502 Contracts (Position as of 11/21)
MATIF Corn: -6,577 Contracts (Position as of 11/17)
Corn Commentary 🌽
The last wire we alluded to what Corn needed to do to improve demand, price lower. We are now in a lower priced market from the face value of the futures market, but how do you execute new demand with both expensive barge rates AND congestion at the Panama Canal?
The answer to that is to sell to export using rail - either selling to Mexico OR selling rail cargos to the pacific northwest for re-export on vessel. For Mexico, that’s already covered and demand continues to increase judging by export sales. As for the rest? Low prices will need to cure low prices and demand will have to step in to put a floor in this market in the PNW (Pacific Northwest).
Technicals💹
Corn continues to chop lower creating lower highs and lower lows…so the trend is still lower. The main level we’re watching is the recent low of 4.73 to trigger a new wave of selling with “potential” support at the 4.62 level.
Watch the following levels for now👇
🟢 Current Upside Targets: 4.80, 4.84
🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.62, 4.50
Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️
This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
🌽Corn NEEDS New Demand (GrainStats)Fundamental Data👇
🌽Corn Marketing Year Progress (23/24)
▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░ 19.81%
Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌱
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ 81%
Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎
535,191 Metric Tons
⬇️ 5,594 Metric Tons week vs. last week
⬆️ 89,498 Metric Tons this week vs. last week
⬇️ 160,191 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week
Export Sales🗺️🫰
19,290,763 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
⬆️ 4,823,345 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊
Bullish 🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 26%
Neutral 🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 33%
Bearish 🟥🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 37%
Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕
🔴 USDA Raised estimated yields of the 2023 crop by 1.9 bushels/acre resulting in the *largest ever crop* to be produced in the United States (15.234 Billion Bushels)
🔴 No notable *new and increasing* demand on balance sheet that isn’t expected to be exports
🔴 Russia and Ukraine Corn production increased by 2.9 million metric tons (Ukraine carryout increased by 1 million metric tons)
🔴 Drought is receding in the US, but several pockets remain (more important for 2024)
🔴 Managed money continues to increase their net short in Corn futures contracts in the US & Europe (MATIF Corn)
🔴 Panama Canal congestion continues to plague logistics increasing freight costs to navigate through the Panama Canal (most of US Corn is exported through the US Gulf and pending destination, may need to use the Panama Canal to get to market)
🟢 Mexico continues to purchase Corn in increasing amounts ( Fastest pace in over +5 years )
🟢 China has been active in the Sorghum market with the best export sales pace in +3 years ( what if they want to purchase US Corn next? )
🟢 US Barge freight has gone down 6 weeks in a row from 1,326% of tariff to 467% of tariff (supportive of basis, all else equal)
Fund Net Position💰
Chicago Corn: -144,432 Contracts (Position as of 10/31)
MATIF Corn: -6,095 Contracts ( Record short. Position as of 11/10)
Corn Commentary 💌
Corn continues to find its way chopping through a bear market backed by record US Corn Production . Unfortunately, domestic demand has not been able to keep up with increasing production potential (yield) due to limiting factors: the ethanol blend wall ⛽ and stagnant feed and residual demand 🐂
So where does all the corn need to go? Export Markets 🌍
How do you incentivize exports? Being the most competitive offer (Low Prices) 🌽⬇️
So, if you’re wondering why prices are trending lower, it’s largely because of a supply/demand imbalance and Corn needs to be priced to incentivize *new* demand through the export markets. What better a place to do it than the Corn futures contract which directly ties into the export markets with its river facilities that flow into the US Gulf export market 💡
Until the market finds that point where demand shifts back to the US market OR production problems arise elsewhere in the world, Corn prices may continue in their downtrend.
Technicals 💹
We recommend to start paying attention to what Corn does if it breaks the summer low of 4.61 as the mainstream news outlets will trigger a wave of news about the corn market being the lowest since 2020 ⚠️
Watch the following levels for now👇
🟢 Current Upside Target: 4.76, 4.80
🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.61, 4.42
Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️
This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
$CORN: Will the weakest agg get weaker?Corn in an interesting spot here as we reach the late quarters of the rate hike cycle. We are on watch for potential shorts following the success of the soybeans trade linked below.
sell dec. corn 4.74 on stop, if filled, stop loss at 4.98, tgt Xsell dec. corn 4.74 on stop, if filled, stop loss at 4.98, tgt is open
🌽 Testing Support (GrainStats)Latest Fundamental Data👇
Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌽
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ 81%
Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎
535,191 Metric Tons
⬇️ 5,594 Metric Tons week vs. last week
⬆️ 89,498 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
⬇️ 160,191 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-year average
Corn Technicals 💹
We will keep this post short and sweet, but after today's close (November 7th), there is downside risk forming at the previously established support of 4.675. A break below this level AND settlement could lead us to test the next support range of 4.6325 - 4.615, which would be the lowest prices of Corn since this past summer (when looking at the continuous contract).
Watch the following levels for now👇
🟢 Current Upside Target: 4.85, 4.90
🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.6325 - 4.615
Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️
This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
just now
Comment:
Caution is advised as the market has successfully retraced back to support.
🌽 Corn Technical Analysis (GrainStats)
Fundamental Data👇
Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌽
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░ 71%
Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎
531,516 Metric Tons
⬆️ 82,255 Metric Tons week vs. last week
⬆️ 58,922 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
⬇️ 53,968 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-year average
Export Sales🗺️
18,275,443 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
⬆️ 4,180,245 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊
Bullish 🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 28%
Neutral 🟫🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 44%
Bearish 🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 25%
Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕
🟢 US River levels have improved on the Mississippi river (barge freight down 4 weeks in a row)
🟢 Mexico continues to purchase US Corn at a rapid pace.
🔴 The US still has a +2 billion bushel carryout
🔴 Wetter forecast for Argentina
Funds 💰
Funds added to their net short position over 44 thousand contracts, raising their total net short position to over 144 thousand contracts , the highest in years, seasonally adjusted.
Corn Technicals 💹
Corn successfully put a double bottom into December Corn futures. This was achieved early Friday morning and then bounced higher erasing two days worth of losses. 🟢
We believe that the near term bottom is in the market, but there are also less than 20 days left before first notice day so we don't expect many fireworks to the upside. Instead the trade should focus on farmers finishing up the 2023 harvest in the next few weeks and the commercial entities rolling their December futures to the March contract.
Overall we think there is a a rangebound trade at hand with well established support at the bottom (4.675) and a over arching down trend in price that has been established since late summer. We'll need a new theme to break out in either direction (Bull = Production problems in Argentina/Brazil or Bear = Russia-Ukraine peace deal)
Watch the following levels for now👇
🟢 Current Upside Target: 4.85, 4.90
🔴 Current Downside Target: 4.675
Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️
This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
Wheat reversalCorn future December went all the way down to Fibbo 0.618 on which it stumbled.
Stochastics are showing a bullish divergence, from the underlying future
That is a nice Buying signal
10 Year Corn Projection (potentially)10yr Corn outlook: 1 thought (of many) on the potential course of the corn market for the next 10 years. I feel the job of the current market is to find a price high enough to ration future demand. Could be current price, 8.50, or 9.50. The potential is there for any of those numbers to mark a major swing high for Corn. The higher that mark is nearby, the more corn begins to ration future demand. The low found after a major high is made, could mark an area for the future multi year market structure. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that could add to potential Ag production shortages. **Not a prediction, something to watch**
At some point we return to a tighter, more defined market structure working low prices against the long term uptrend line… 4.50-5.25 ???
🌽 Corn Technical Analysis (GrainStats)Corn Fundamentals ( CBOT:ZCZ2023 )
Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌽
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░ 59%
Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎
437,549 Metric Tons
⬇️ 29,055 Metric Tons week vs. last week
⬇️ 22,514 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
⬇️ 370,24 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-year average
Export Sales
16,176,285 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
⬆️ 2,753,396 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
Noteworthy News / Themes
🟢 Argentina is behind pace on Corn planting (12% complete)
🟢 US River levels have improved on the Mississippi river (barge freight down)
🟢 Mexico purchased 117,200 metric tons in a flash sales news announcement
🔴 The US still has a +2 billion bushel carryout
🔴 Corn failed to stay above $5.00 futures
🟢 Dry forecast in Argentina
🔴 Wet forecast in Brazil
Corn Technicals
Corn couldn't settle above $5.00 for too long given the ample expected carryout being priced into the market in the middle of harvest. Consider the sales that were sold above $5.00 as a gift to the farmers and we hope farmers prices some bushels.
Outside of this, there really isn't much to say anymore about this market except that after 3 years of a bull market, we're finally getting back to reality and reality in the grain market is quiet.
Watch the following levels for now👇
🟢 Current Upside Target: 5.00
🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.74, 4.675
CORN FUT 1M: Watch trend lines for probable bearish continuationAs above.
1M chart looking likely for continued bearish trend.
Watch for break in yellow channel support line and likely long term red diagonal resistance line on the way down.
Will follow.
Good luck traders.
Is Corn Ready To Pop?Last week, we were looking for a potential bottom in corn. Since then, we’ve mostly traded sideways to slightly higher. However, the end of this week brings a “triple-witching” event - the end of the month, the end of the fiscal quarter, and the quarterly grain stocks report all occur on Friday. In last quarter’s grain stocks report, the market sold off fairly sharply as corn stocks were reportedly 54% higher on a year-over-year basis.
The contract’s resilience in defending the lows is very encouraging considering the positioning of managed funds. In the chart below, you can see that managed funds have amassed a substantial short position over the course of the last 6 weeks. As of last Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed funds held 319,079 short positions. Meanwhile, prices have maintained a very tight 15-20 cent trading range.
As such, there is significant fund rebalancing in Friday’s session, it may induce a short-covering rally. What does that mean? In order to exit a short position, the contract holder will have to buy a contract. If there is substantial buying volume, it will press prices higher, and force short-positions to exit ultimately resulting in a rally.
The question then becomes - how high can we go? Considering that the December corn contract was unable to close above 500 a single time in the month of August or September thus far, that may be an ambitious initial target. In order to retest 500, and ultimately our 502-506 ½ 3-star resistance pocket, we will have to surpass 3-star resistance between 489 and 491. If we manage to trade through 491, it could lay the foundation for December corn to surpass 500 once again.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
BUY CORN FUTURES This pair seems to be on a long-term uptrend. It's trading on mean price if we compare it from past price action.
Close to A Bottom in December Corn? After scoring a new contract low early in Tuesday’s trade, December corn futures managed to stage a late-session rally to close in positive territory. Moreover, the contract managed to close above trendline resistance that’s been in place dating back to June 20th.
Price action on Wednesday served as a continuation of the late-session strength, with the contract closing 6 cents higher to close at 482 ¼ - marking a second consecutive close above trendline resistance. Prices have clung to the trendline very tightly over the last 8 trading sessions, and the previous two sessions are the first instances of prices closing above trendline resistance.
So the question now becomes, are we close to a bottom in the December corn contract? Looking at price history and seasonal tendencies, we can see that the December corn contract typically bottoms out between the final week of September and into the first couple of weeks of October, before ultimately staging a moderate rally in late October.
www.seasonalgo.com
If we are indeed attempting to put in an intermediate bottom, we can expect a support/resistance flip. Meaning, that previous trendline resistance should now act as trendline support. In other words, if prices falter in the coming days, and test the trendline, we should likely see bulls come to defend the trendline.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CORN is trying to establish a base for an upside counter-swingAfter a long period of sideways trading within MJT and MNT lines , Corn is trying to establish a base for an upside counter-swing. A clear close above 508 will confirm it and clear the path for an extended rally. Today USDA will release the weekly export sales report which could be the catalyst that ignite this counter-swing.
