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Wheat Futures (May 2023)Wheat Futures (May 2023)Wheat Futures (May 2023)

Wheat Futures (May 2023)

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ZWK2023 trade ideas

WheatWheat price (ZW features) jumped as result of RU breaking deal with UKR. Additionally RU attacked grain terminal in Odessa with rockets. Price raised to 750 and then strongly corrected to below 700. This correction might be due to hopes that grain deal will be restored. Unfortunately, now this looks less likely. Both RU and UKR threaten ships on black see - that will affect the grain transport. Insurance premiums for this route will rise/potentially this also can affect the shipping merchants that do not want to risk their ships to be destroyed. Both RU + UKR is about 30% of grain export. Weather situation effect on harvest. There is still possible some effects. This will develop. Assuming now that weather is not major effect for now. UKR means to transport wheat: 1. Odessa terminal (main route) 2. Danube terminal (river is drying) - improved since 2022. 3. Land routes Embargos of some EU countries on UKR wheat also complicating situation now (i.e. Poland). Difficulties with land routes. Expect the price to rise above 800 levels.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Max_Initio
ZW1! Will Grow! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for ZW1!. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 703'2. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 812'7 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by SignalProvider
8
Wheat: Time for the turning point ⤴️🚀The recent downward movement has brought the wheat price into our blue trading zone and thus the minimum requirement of the current blue corrective wave (b) has been fulfilled. We expect it to go a little lower, but gradually the price should now form the end of the wave, allowing long entries. In the further sequence, we see the price rising above the resistance at USX 807.25, where we locate the high of the turquoise wave A. However, if the bears dominate and push the price lower, there is a 25% chance that the price will fall below the USX 611.25 support level, which buyers may want to keep in mind.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by MarketIntel
Inflation Cycle – Commodities Lead Inflation NumberThe last 50 years, we have seen gold, commodities, and inflation numbers move in cycles and in tandem together. Though gold has picked up in recent years, make no mistake, the cycle between them is still intact. If gold is leading the way, the rest should catch up subsequently. Gold will likely remain high because of the easy money policy over the decades or the creation of off-balance debt. Based on past cycle performance, commodities may come into alignment with gold, meaning there is a chance for commodities to catch up with gold. When that happens, inflation will pick up again. The inflation data to be reflected, such as the CPI or PCE, is usually a few months behind the commodity prices. Therefore, the Fed has been in defense mode, combating inflation due to the weakness of the dollar, elevation of gold and firmness in commodities. Some reference for traders: Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 / ZW Gold Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 / GC Soybean Oil Futures & Options - Its Minimum Fluctuation 1/100 of one cent (0.0001) per pound = $6.00 / ZL Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by konhow
3
Wheat predictions: How winding up grain deal blows up the price The world is "not optimistic" that the grain-export corridor that has allowed it to ship more than 30 million tons of crops amid the Russia - Ukraine tensions will be extended beyond July, the country’s infrastructure minister said Wednesday. The efficiency of the Black Sea corridor is faltering and crop volumes are declining. Even if prolonged, it won’t be as helpful in offloading the nearing 2023 harvests in its current state. "We are doing our best in order to maintain this initiative", - Mr. Kubrakov (who signed the deal) said. The deal — which was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey — has helped lower world food prices and maintain a sector that is vital for Ukraine’s economy. It is next up for renewal on July 17, nearby July, 2023 CBOT:ZWN2023 Wheat Futures contract expiration. Russian President Vladimir Putin already signaled that his nation may quit the pact, though the UN has urged all parties to press on. There are no prerequisites for extending the grain deal, Mr. Peskov, press secretary of the Russian President said on June 21. The deal has recently been plagued by a persistent slowdown in ship inspections, and Russia’s refusal to approve vessels headed to one of the three ports it covers. Some 1.3 million tons of crops were shipped via the corridor in May, less than a third of the peak in October, UN figures show. The technical picture indicates, Wheat Futures contracts are heading up for the 5th consecutive weeks in a row, second time since Q1 2022, last time due to widely known tensions between Russia and Ukraine. With almost 30 percent gain from 2023 low near 575 cents per bushel, the price breaking up 1/2-year simple moving average, with further upside opportunities, up to 800 cents per bushel.
CBOT:ZWN2023
by Pandorra
1
Cycle - Gold vs Commodities vs Inflation In this video analysis, I will walk you through 3 keys: 1. My observation on these cycles 2. The super charge in the Gold, how that affect the commodities subsequently? 3. How about inflation? Will it settle at 3%? Some reference for traders: Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 / ZW Gold Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 / GC Soybean Oil Futures & Options - Its Minimum Fluctuation 1/100 of one cent (0.0001) per pound = $6.00 / ZL Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by konhow
Moving Averages: Their Role and Significance in TAWhen I worked as a professional technical analyst at major banks, I often encountered two common questions: Did I optimize my moving averages, and why did I use a 55-week and 200-week moving average? To address these queries, I've created a short video. The answer is that I never optimized the moving averages. Firstly, moving averages have a lagging effect, and secondly, when optimized, they may work well for a short period but eventually lose effectiveness. Therefore, I never relied on them as a sole basis for entering or exiting trades. Instead, I used them to confirm my existing views. However, moving averages do serve a purpose, especially if you find ones that work well for you. In my case, I found that the 55-week and 200-week moving averages were effective. Firstly, I observed that several markets tended to revert to these long-term moving averages (I analyze numerous charts regularly). Secondly, the 55-week moving average approximates to around one year of data, while the 200-week moving average approximates to around four years. This is significant because many clients pay close attention to these long-term moving averages. My speculation is that the United States, being one of the largest markets globally, experiences presidential elections every four years, which impacts the US Dollar and, consequently, other markets. Examining the Wheat chart, you can see the impressive performance of the 55-week and 200-week moving averages during the bull market. They consistently supported the upward trend. However, when the market began to break below the 55-week moving average, it indicated a potential end to the bull trend. Subsequently, when it broke below the 55-week moving average for the second time, it confirmed the conclusion that the bull move was over and the trend had turned negative. Presently, rallies to the 55-week moving average are failing. This conveys crucial information: Wheat is not only in a bearish trend but also suggests that any upward movements towards the 55-week moving average should be viewed as opportunities to sell.
CBOT:ZW1!Education
by The_STA
Wheat (World) - Short Bias; Cheap Ukrainian wheat everywhere!Sure, it is winter in the northern hemisphere so why even bother with the grains at all? ... ... Because cheap Ukrainian wheat had absolutely flooded European markets, so much so that very soon they will have to start dumping some of it into the ocean! (Right now, they are trying to air out these mountains of grain, so it wouldn't mold, but that will go only so far.) Normally, this time of the year, 55-60 ships per week get loaded with Ukrainian wheat, headed for Africa and Asia. As of last week, these numbers are down to 19 ships . Russia closed the Bosporus to Ukrainian wheat (and oil seed) shipments. As an alternative solution, Ukraine is shipping most of its harvest to the EU - mostly Poland & Germany - to load it on ships in those ports. - But guess what ... ... shipping it all to Europe AND THEN load it onto ships makes the whole proposition economically non-viable. (Well below producer cost.) So now, the endless trainloads of grains, continuously pouring into the EU, gets dumped all over EU markets (at 40%-60% discounts!) because long empty local silos are all filled to capacity. There is now zero (0) storage capacity left anywhere in Europe! (... and the endless trainloads just keep on coming.) ... making this trade - not a monster - rather a no-brainer. (Like free beer)
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
10