Micro USD/JPY Futures (M6J1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 137.22
Pivot: 136.44
Support : 134.06
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku indicator and has broken the ascending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 136.44 where the pullback resistance, 100% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are to 1st support at 134.06 in line with swing low support, 161.8% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci retracement .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 137.22 where the pullback resistance, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Due to the high volatility in USDJPY, we have a bearish bias on the USDJPY forex pair.
6JU2024 trade ideas
Micro USD/JPY Futures (M6J1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 138.73
Pivot: 137.22
Support : 136.38
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator and along the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 137.22 in line with the pullback support to the 1st resistance at 138.73 where the swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support level at 136.38 in line with the pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement and -27.2% fibonacci expansion .
Fundamentals: With the BoJ monetary policy statement due on Thursday and the BoJ reaffirming its commitment to maintaining the current path of ultra-loose monetary policy , the weakness in the Yen is likely to persist, hence we have a bearish bias on the USDJPY forex pair. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
Micro USD/JPY Futures (M6J1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 138.73
Pivot: 137.22
Support : 136.38
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator and along the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 137.22 in line with the pullback support to the 1st resistance at 138.73 where the swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support level at 136.38 in line with the pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement and -27.2% fibonacci expansion.
Fundamentals: With the BoJ monetary policy statement due on Thursday and the BoJ reaffirming its commitment to maintaining the current path of ultra-loose monetary policy, the weakness in the Yen is likely to persist, hence we have a bearish bias on the USDJPY forex pair. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
Micro USD/JPY Futures (M6J1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 138.78
Pivot: 137.22
Support : 136.44
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku cloud and within the ascending channel , we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 137.22 in line with the pullback support and 61.8% fibonacci projection to the 1st resistance at 138.78 where the swing high resistance is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support level at 136.44 in line with the pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection .
Fundamentals: Due to the dovish overall sentiment of yen, we have a bearish view of the USDJPY . We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
Micro USD/JPY Futures (M6J1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 138.78
Pivot: 137.22
Support : 136.44
Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku cloud and within the ascending channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 137.22 in line with the pullback support and 61.8% fibonacci projection to the 1st resistance at 138.78 where the swing high resistance is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support level at 136.44 in line with the pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection.
Fundamentals: Due to the dovish overall sentiment of yen, we have a bearish view of the USDJPY. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
Potential Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and in a descending trend channel and trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the pivot at 0.007296 in line with the pullback resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and -27.2% fibonacci expansion to the 1st support at 0.007126 in line with the -61.8% fibonacci expansion and 100% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.007362 at the overlap resistance in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
JAPANESE YEN FUTURES (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.0073705
Pivot: 0.0073385
Support : 0.0072935
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.0073385 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.0072935 where the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.0073705 where the pullback resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and -27.2% fibonacci expansion are.
Fundamentals: Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said that the Japanese government is concerned about the Yen’s recent rapid weakening, giving us a bearish bias on the Japanese Yen.
Potential for Bullish ContinuationOn the H4, with price recently breaking the descending trendline and moving above the ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 0.007372 at the swing low in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projections to the 1st resistance at 0.007489 at the swing high in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection . Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 0.007342 at the swing low in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection .
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
6J1! - Could Be About To Knock Your Socks Off YEN Futures recently a 20 year low.
It has just below also hit a long term 1:0.618 taking the 3 waves from the top.
Considering the significance of the low it should at least have a strong automatic rally and as shorts cover their positions.
But it may also go on a real rally, perhaps even an enormous rally.
Fibs on the chart - a 0.5 retracement from the top could see it getting back to the area of previous tops and strong resistance at $0.0099.
Monthly RSI is down at 18. I would think it will get back at least to 60 - 70 area before a potential downside reversal.
Am bullish JPY against any pair currently and am short CADJPY.
Not advice.
Potential for Bullish ContinuationOn the H4, with price recently breaking the descending trendline and moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 0.007372 at the swing low in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projections to the 1st resistance at 0.007489 at the swing high in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 0.007342 at the swing low in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
JAPANESE YEN FUTURES (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.0074895
Pivot: 0.0074195
Support : 0.0073570
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.0074195 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.0073570 in line with the 100% fibonacci projection and horizontal swing low support.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break the pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.0074895 where the swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: Yen weakness could continue, evident with the USDJPY rebounding from support to trade above 135 overnight, giving us a weak bearish bias towards yen.
JAPANESE YEN FUTURES (6J1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.0076510
Pivot: 0.0074900
Support : 0.0073605
Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud which supports our bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.0074900 where the swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are. Once we have upside confirmation, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.0076510 in line with swing high resistance and 100% fibonacci projection .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price drop to the 1st support at 0.0073605 in line with the swing low support.
Fundamentals: Despite key figures commenting about how a weaker Yen is deterimental to the Japanese economy, the BoJ’s policy path is still divergent to other central banks, giving us a bearish bias for the Japanese Yen.
The Yen is in for a world of hurtIf you see here the Yen futures history from the perspective of the monthly chart, you can see a pretty clear cut H&S pattern, with a downside target of a 40% to the downside.
Basically, the jig is up for the Bank of Japan, their scheme is gonna fall apart. I think they hold like a trillion US dollars worth of US equities too so you can imagine them dumping all that shit to try to hold up their currency as it death spirals.
I don't know anything, but I know that I'm short yen.
JAPANESE YEN FUTURES (6J1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.0075575
Pivot: 0.0074695
Support : 0.0074205
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 0.0074695 in line with the overlap support and 61.8% fibonacci retracement to 1st resistance at 0.0075575 in line with the 127.2% fibonacci extension and swing high resistance.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 0.0074205 where the swing low support, -61.8% fibonacci expansion and 100% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: As the Bank of Japan adjusted the auction schedule and amounts, conducting additional outright purchases of JGBs and increasing the amount of purchases, paired with an aggressive 75bps rate increase from the FOMC. Anticipation is for the Japanese Yen to find its footing against the USD and test higher. This gives us a bullish view for the japanese yen.
JPY FutureNot a single support in the area
dont even think about shorting any USD/CAD/GBP/ JPY pair for a while
until it reach 0.0074360 and check how it react to that support
Japanese Yen
Canary in the coal mine? This is a warning signal.
The Yen is being destroyed against the USD.
This is NOT normal price action this is multi-year lows for the Yen.
Be careful out there.
Daily Chart
JPY Futures Supply And Demand AnalysisSee Picture for analysis.
Very weak JPY but will this be the turning point?
Thouhts?
6J1! SHORT IDEAOn further analysis of the Yen Futures, we observe a market structure break for the first time. Any time this happens we anticipate net long traders at that price being triggered long while the smart money is short on their orders. Any net long trader at this level has to be liquidated. Logically any net trader long(dumb money) will have their stops below the Previous Daily Low. This results in price being delivered lower to liquidate any active trader on the wrong side of the market.
The result causes weakness in Yen and inverse strength in other pairs such as GBP on GBPJPY.
JPY Futures Supply And Demand Analysis-See chart for analysis.
-Price inside monthly demand
-Waiting for price to break lower timeframe downward trend lines and remove pivot point supply zones. (see pic on left for example)
-Keep eye on fundamental news.
Currency Commodities and Stocks: Visual correlationCurrencies are falling while stocks and commodities rise.
This has been the case over centuries
(see: "Principles", Dailo)
On the chart:
DXY as a dollar proxy
Yen futures
Commodities: the mean of 3 ETF's tracking broad commodity index's
SPX500 tracks the S&P500 index.
Each series has been rescaled to have a similar ranges (visually). A linear transformation or Z-Scores could be used as well.
YEN FUTURES (67!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce!Type : Bullish bounce
Resistance : 0.008741
Pivot: 0.00868
Support : 0.008658
Preferred case: Prices are consolidating horizontally and are close to our Pivot. We see the potential for further upside from our Pivot at 0.00868 in line 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 0.008741 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Extension, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci expansion. Our bullish bias is further supported by RSI being on bullish momentum.
Alternative scenario: If prices were reverse, they can potentially dip towards our 1st support at 0.008658 which is a graphical swing low and also in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: The Japanese yen is expected to continue to ride its safe-haven status, with bias for additional gains despite its relatively long standing ultra-accommodative monetary policy put in place to aid the recovery of the country’s economy from the devastating impacts from the Delta variant of COVID-19. With commodities being at all time high, we expect investors to be on a look out for buying opportunities on this safe-haven currency with its relative stability.
JPY Short - Long Usdjpy- Just analysis based on VP and Retail sentiment.
if break HH, we will wait for long
if break HL, we short....
