HEJ16Break above Friday"s high for a "short" long trade to the upside. This is a momentum play. Tight stops; one day play for Monday.
HEJ2015 trade ideas
Manieri's "Getting Piggy with it"Bearish Cypher pattern @ $77.90
Stops at $89.60
Target 1 @ $67.825
Target 2 @ $61.575
HEJ16Countertrend trade off of price action to the downside. Two days of sweating almost getting filled but today was the day. Locked in to break even and looking for price to retest support. Long term is still long with a buy setup at the test of support.
Hogs reach needs a breath...time for a quick shortHere is a nice cypher pattern for a short at the D point. Look to take profits at the .382 retracement
Lean Hogs - After every rain the sun returns...Instead of looking the curve of the price for lean hogs in the short term, which shows a most obvious down since July 14, I noticed that in the long term this market is in a Bull-Trend from 1999. The consumption of the porcine meats has constantly increased in the last 10-15 years, favoring also a grow of the US meats production, that has reached industrial levels.
In the short term the market’s still reacting to a negative data series. After the containment of the PED virus that has carried to the exorbitant prices in July, the demand has clearly diminished and at the same time the production increased. By now the market has reached the lowest level since more than 5 years and it does not seem to want to change direction. Last week the USDA has recorded an increase of the +6,2% slaughterings to 2.26 million heads, an ulterior negative factor for the prices. The wholesale domestic demand of porcine meats has literally collapsed and reached the lowest level since 2010. Foreign demand has weakened as well: between January and November the exports shrunk by -1,7% to 4.46 billion pounds.
Short term the trend’s unquestionable down and can carry us straight until 40 cents/lb. But, analyzing the historical trend from 1999, the lean hogs futures are exactly on the support line, that gives us a purchase signal. Like in 1998, 2002 and 2009 the market could suddenly change direction, also in total absence of positive fundamentals. If my supposition’s exact, the hours of the reduction are counted… “after every rain the sun returns…”
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Short Hog Spread entered 1-22-15. $480 profit, $990 margin. What an extremely sharp move after a crossover deep below overbought range, right before a huge day on 1-30-15. I wish I could say that I rode this all the way up to it's top but I had a nice little profit at 10.875 and exited when it leveled off after it's strong open just over 11.000. Looking at it now, a trailing stop using the last 14 days Average True Range, which was .6220, I would've given it room to do it's thing and captured it's peak right at close, but that's $250 worth of wiggle room, and it could've gone against me too. For those of you tracking me, this was the recommendation I emailed out on 1-22-15. Trade 4212, 15/15 years profitable, $681 avg profit, which we caught 70.4%. But this is a spread that's been profitable historically for the next 17 days, until 2-19. So I'll be looking for a dip to do it again. Will you be with me?
RSI pulling back before a strong surgeIf you were to take a lesson from this as to a characteristic of RSI, look at this dip under the 70 line before it surges back into overbought territory.
Hogs!HEZ2014 contract. 20MA crossing 50MA - trendline out of question - it could consolidate longer but just in case I'll place a sell order to catch the next move towards 87.8.
Chasing the HogSwing failure in proximity of the 1/1 bull Gann line. The market is poised to move lower. Target on the down sloping ML. Large speculators are holding extreme long positions and might start to liquidate soon. Notice also that all the livestock sector is at historical highs and is showing signs of reversal (see LEZ and GFX contracts)
P.I.G. reversalWell, here it seems that we have finally reached a top. The Lower low on Tuesday (01 Oct 13) should be followed by a lower high at this point. If today high is confirmed as a pivot point the price is poised to move from the 1/1 Gann line to the 2/1. Target is 83.000.
Clip from Animal House!
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Hogs trapOn 14 Aug 13 price crossed the 87.000 resistance, touched the upward sloping 1//1 Gann line but two days later pulled back inside the 83.000-87.000 'rectangle'. It's a sell with first target 83.000 (rectangle base) and second 80.000 (longer term target). Seasonal trend usually bear.
Movie clip
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Hogs feel betterGot stopped in my first attempt but I'm re-entering a short here. Hog are at historical price highs and from a seasonal point of view they are typically weak till late October. Hogs have reached resistance at 99.500-100.000. Price action over the last few days suggests that a reversal is in place. I expect a quick fall during the next 2-3days back to the 1/1 Gann where another reaction could take place.
Hogs peakSeasonally weak till late October. Hogs have reached resistance at 99.500. Price action over the last few days suggests that a reversal is in place. I expect a quick fall during the next 2-3days back to the 1/1 Gann and 20 MA where another consolidation could take place.
Feb13 Hogs sellTrend is up but I think hogs are setting up for a sell soon. Friday inside day might be a sign. Support is at 82.58 where i'm planning to take profit. After that the market should run again. Feedback please!
