Lean Hogs Test the Last Line of Defense
Lean Hogs
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 4,335 futures/options contracts, through June 7th. This expands their net long position to 21,630. Broken down, that is 46,526 longs VS 24,896 shorts.
Technicals (July): July lean hogs were able to stabilize on Friday after defending MUST HOLD support on Thursday. That pocket remains intact from 103.35-103.70. A failure here could take us back to fill the tiny gap left from May 16th, and potentially lower. On the resistance side of things, there are multiple hurdles for the Bulls. The first comes in from 106.75-107.75. A close back above this pocket could help spark some buying interest which could take us back near the 50 and 100 day moving average, which coincides with trendline resistance from the March 31st high.
Resistance: 106.75-107.75*** 110.50-111.625***, 114.00-114.825***
Support: 103.35-103.70****, 101.30-101.60**, 97.375-98.00****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Trade ideas
Daily Lean Hog Technical and Fundamental Update (6.8.22)Lean Hogs
Technicals (July): July lean hogs were able to catch a bid yesterday, but the Bulls still have some work to do to make up for the back half of last week’s trade. 110.50-111.10 is the first hurdle, but the bigger hurdle comes in at the 100-day moving average, 112.50.
Resistance: 112.50***, 114.175-114.825***, 120.325-121.075***
Pivot: 110.50-111.00
Support: 108.70**, 106.65-106.975***, 103.35-103.70**
Will Lean Hogs Breakout Above Key Moving Averages?Lean Hogs
Technicals (July): July lean hog futures peeled back yesterday, trading near the low end of last week’s range. 106.65-106.975 is the support pocket that the Bulls need to defend to prevent a bigger technical pullback. On the resistance side of things, the 100-day moving average has been a brick wall, that comes in at 112.35, today.
Resistance: 114.175-114.825***, 120.325-121.075***
Pivot: 111.975
Support: 108.70**, 106.65-106.975***, 103.35-103.70**
Sell June Hogs HEM22Sell June hogs market 112.50, 1st tgt 105.10, stop 117.55
**Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss.
The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and
does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only
risk capital should be used. Past performance is not indicative of future results**
hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
one of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. in addition, hypothetical trading does no involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. there are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Long June Hogs Signal - HEM22Entry 12225
Stop 117.70
1st TP 126.90
hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
one of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. in addition, hypothetical trading does no involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. there are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Lean Hogs With Oil Futures CorrelationsLean Hog has a gap below that has me intrigued but I am not sure how or if it will fill. I will also note this interesting but obvious correlation that I found with oil. We have some interesting inverse correlations on 2/18, 3/17, 3/25 among other days but otherwise similar chart patterns between the two. I am not sure how or why lean hogs front ran the oil pump 2/14 - 2/25 I would be curious to anyone's thoughts on this. Just general observations from a neutral stance.
HogsContinuous Hogs- Weekly: Currently plotting against the February contract. Uptrend lines off swing lows, and downtrend lines off swing highs. Creates areas to watch for action and reaction points. The Red uptrend line off the Covid Crash low is trying to maintain the overall strength in Lean Hogs. A firm break below could find support at any of the dashed downtrend lines…
Upside into the first half of 2022 show multiple areas competing with last years strength
HE - Lean Hogs A few years back, China had amassed a 2.6 Year Supply of... you guessed it... Bacon.
Pork Bellies to be precise.
China, yeah, naw, they are not big on Bacon for breakfast, lunch, or dinner.
Frozen Bellied piled up and piled up for months on end.
Piggies have filled the Gap again.
The Potential for reversals in many commodities is rising, even for BAKE ON.
Lean hogs breakout imminent Following a natural gas crunch hurting European countries , pig farmers have sounded the alarm that CO2 supplies are low hence could slow down pig slaughter. I expect this to push the price of pork around Europe and around the world higher.
Should a flag break out occur, there's a huge gap (20%+) waiting to be filled.
Continuous Lean HogsContinuous Hogs- Weekly: Currently plotting against the Oct contract. Uptrend lines off swing lows, and downtrend lines off swing highs. Creates areas to watch for action and reaction points All time high at 133.60, but hogs turned lower off the touch of the major uptrend line based off the 18’ low. Retracements can be used for support targets….
Further risk in the 75.00 – 70.00 area for 4th qtr Hogs or around the 1st week of October
Hogs 8.17.21 Hogs Part 2 This is part two you should start with part one. using hogs as an example, but this is about the process of trading so that you can trade any market of interest. They say TRADE WHAT YOU SEE, But at some point you need to learn that you will have to be very diligent to keep your tools in mind. In a way it is like needing to put your glasses on before you can see anything, and it's a little more precise to say that your mind actively runs a list of important tools that you use, and a mental checklist so that you don't forget about those tools. It would be like karate where it takes many many years of repetitive behavior that results in a familiarity for you to be proficient. Trading is like this. Even if you're very familiar with the tools that you use, you can still miss them. A lot of times you had enough information without those tools and you will get away with it. What many traders will find in the course of learning how to trade is that they will run across some epiphanies, incredible insight that feels amazing... because it is. But six months or a year later it may occur to them, as good as that insight was they forgot about it, it slipped away. I believe people experiences this many times in their life with regard to trading. It's not that easy to find the epiphany, but it is a lot easier than you think to let it slip away. That is what this video is about.
hogs Tesla8.17.21 Tesla warning. Live Hogs. Part 1 This video and then next video are really about process, and what I think it takes to be more consistent and more successful in your trading. This is why I believe you will benefit if you listen to this video as well as part two even if you don't trade Tesla and the live hogs.






















