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Tuesday, Oct 21st Weekly Forecast UPDATES!Welcome to the Weekly Forecast Updates! In this video, we will analyze the following markets: DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NASDAQ, S&P500 Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
13
Day 55 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$452 | Rested and FocusRecap & Trades Day 55 — I finally caught up on sleep last night and it made a huge difference. Woke up focused, saw the bullish structure signal early, and just stayed on the long side all session. Didn’t fight the trend, didn’t short — just stayed in BTD mode and let the system do the heavy lifting. Ended the day +$452 and feeling great. Lesson & Mindset When you’re rested, you make better decisions. Sleep sharpens reaction time, patience, and emotional control — all critical traits for traders. Don’t underestimate rest as part of your trading system. News & Levels Today’s main headline: Bank reserves dropped below $3 trillion for the second week straight. That’s a macro factor to watch — tighter liquidity can ripple into equities soon. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6760 bullish, below 6735 bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
3
SANTA RALLY OR BLACK FRIDAY ...... THOUGHTS?This is this weekend's whiteboard projections for the next 6months. This shows a slight reclaim this week but a continuation of lower highs and lower lows. Then a drop to the bottom of the narrower channel when China tariffs & rare earth restrictions are reflected in earnings guidance as Mag7 reports Q3 results. Dead cat bounce into Thanksgiving after the market pullback on guidance. Then only a Trump tweet can give us a Santa Rally, otherwise the other shoe falls and we get a Black Friday/Monday after Thanksgiving. Followed by a controlled selloff through Q4/Q1 earnings & poor guidance. Chart forecasts finding a bottom in April 2026. Please share your charts/forecasts into April 2026. (I am pretty new to this if you can't tell by my charts)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by cobra15999
1
gameplan for $ES_F – 10/20**Trade Plan – 10/20: $ES_F #ES_F** 📊 **Setup Overview:** • $ES_F held above key **support at 6540**, bouncing off the daily trendline and reclaiming short-term strength. • The broader **ascending wedge** remains intact, with **6806** as major resistance and **6540** acting as the line in the sand for bulls. • The market is consolidating between **6540–6800**, awaiting a breakout catalyst — likely earnings or macro data. 🐂 **Bullish Scenario:** • Stay above **6540** and push through **6700 → 6750** for continuation. • Break and hold above **6806** targets **new highs** into the **6850–6900** zone. 🐻 **Bearish Scenario:** • Lose **6540** → watch for a quick drop toward **6240 → 6169**. • Below **6169**, momentum breaks the long-term structure and opens **5822** as the next major demand zone. ⚖️ **Key Levels:** • Resistance → 6700 / 6750 / 6806 • Support → 6540 / 6240 / 6169 🕓 **What I’m Watching:** • Daily close above **6700** confirms bullish continuation. • Breakdown under **6540** confirms the first leg of a potential trend reversal. • Earnings and Fed speakers could drive volatility — stay nimble near resistance zones. --- 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment if you’re trading $ES_F. Follow **@optibiz_trades** for more market setups, trade plans, and daily insights!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by nazimd73
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Fri (Oct 24)ES Two-Way Plan (A++) — Level-KZ 15/5/1 Calendar (ET) — Fri Oct 24: 08:30 CPI (Sept). 09:45 S&P Global flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs. 10:00 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final). 14:00 Federal Reserve Board open meeting. Expect compression into 08:30 → expansion on release; execute inside NY AM 09:30–11:00 and PM 13:30–16:00 only. Bias & overnight→NY forecast: Into CPI, lean range-bound 6,770–6,787. A clean hold above the “weak-high” pocket should squeeze toward the 1.272–1.618 extension band; failure back inside favors a drift to the breakout shelves below. Treat the first post-CPI impulse as discovery; take the next confirmed 15m/5m/1m sequence only. Setups - Level-KZ execution (15m→5m→1m) 1) Short Rejection Fade @ 6,785–6,787 (W3): 15m rejection closes back inside → 5m re-close below ~6,783.5 with LH → enter first 1m pullback that stalls beneath the shelf. SL: above the 15m rejection wick ±0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,776–6,777. TP2: 6,759–6,762. TP3: 6,739–6,744. 2) Long Acceptance Continuation > 6,797 (W3): 15m full-body close above 6,797 → 5m pullback holds/re-closes → 1m HL entry. SL: below the 15m trigger/pullback wick ±0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,818 (1.618). TP2: 6,830–6,835. 3) Long Quick-Reclaim Bounce @ 6,759–6,762 (W2): fast flush into the shelf → instant reclaim (15m wick, 5m re-close back above) → 1m HL entry. SL: below the 15m flush wick ±0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,776–6,777. TP2: 6,785–6,787. 4) Short Acceptance Breakdown < 6,759 (W2): 15m body-through below 6,759 → 5m confirms → 1m LH entry. SL: above 15m trigger wick ±0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,739–6,744. TP2: 6,720–6,725.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis Week-Ahead (Oct 20th - 24th)Market Structure Overview Price has shown a robust rebound from last week's discount levels, now trading back near the 6,720 area following a swift flush and subsequent V-shaped recovery. Currently, we remain capped under the supply zone between 6,765 and 6,795, which represents the previous swing-high levels. As long as we trade below this resistance, our primary strategy will be to sell into strength and buy on dips within the established range, rather than pursuing breakouts. On the hourly chart, key equilibrium is noted around the 6,701 to 6,705 range; this serves as the pivotal point around which price action is currently oscillating. Setups (Level-KZ style) Reclaim-and-go long (Tier-1 / Tier-2): Asia/London: hold above 6,701–6,705 after a shallow dip → in NY AM, take the first 5m re-close + 1m HL toward 6,725–6,735. Scale/target: TP1 6,725–6,735, runners toward 6,765–6,780 if strength persists. Invalidation: 15m body back below 6,701. Flush-and-reclaim long (Tier-3 bounce): • Quick sweep into 6,655–6,665 (or even 6,685–6,690) during London → immediate reclaim → first HL entry. • Targets: back to 6,701 then 6,725–6,735. Invalidation: 15m close back inside/under the swept zone. Pop-and-fail short (fade): • Squeeze into 6,725–6,735 that fails to accept (15m rejection back inside) → take the first 5m LH. • Targets: 6,701 then 6,685–6,690. Invalidation: 15m body acceptance above 6,735. Stop-run reversal short: • Spike into 6,765–6,795 (look for wick/absorption) → 15m rejection → 5m LH entry. • Targets: 6,735 then 6,701. Invalidation: sustained 15m/30m acceptance above 6,795. Management: Anchor hard SL to the relevant 15m wick of the trigger ± a small buffer; require TP1 ≥ 2R to the next major level. At TP1, trim most and put the runner to BE; max 2 attempts per level per session. Overnight to Tomorrow NY Forecast Base Case: Anticipate a range build between 6,685 and 6,735 overnight as the market absorbs the recent rebound. During the NY AM session (09:30–11:00 ET), initial attempts may test the 6,725–6,735 resistance before pulling back towards 6,701, potentially moving within the 6,685–6,690 range. Should buyers maintain support at 6,701 on a 15-minute chart, watch for a late-morning rebound back to the 6,725–6,735 zone, with a potential squeeze toward 6,755–6,780 if we see acceptance above 6,735. The bias shifts to a bullish trend only with clear acceptance above 6,795, which would indicate multiple strong closes in that area, potentially targeting 6,820 and beyond. On the other hand, a decisive move below 6,655 would trigger a downward extension toward 6,604, 6,564, and 6,520. Execution windows (ET) • London: 02:00–05:00 — look for the sweep/reclaim plays. • NY AM (primary): 09:30–11:00 — best momentum/rotation. • NY PM: 13:30–16:00 — continuation or mean-revert back into the day’s pivot. What changes the plan Acceptance above 6,735 early: favor continuation to 6,765–6,780 rather than fading. Hard failure at 6,701 with sellers defending on 15m: expect a deeper test into 6,685 → 6,655–6,665. Elevated macro headlines/data at 08:30/10:00 ET windows can temporarily override levels; let the impulse print, then trade the retest.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Thur (Oct 23)Bias: The market shows a neutral to slightly bullish outlook as long as prices remain above the 6739–6751 control band. A decisive break and sustained trading above 6780 would indicate a shift in momentum to the upside, targeting the levels of 6804 to 6812. Conversely, if we lose support at 6739, we could see a decline toward 6712, with 6691 serving as a key level that may attract selling pressure. Execution windows: London 02:00–05:00 optional small size. NY AM 09:30–11:00 primary. NY PM 13:30–16:00 primary. Midday is manage-only; avoid initiating. Setups Short pop-and-fail at 6773–6780 – Trigger: 15m rejection back inside the band → 5m re-close below ~6773 → first 1m pullback stalls beneath 6773 – Entry: sell the pullback beneath 6773 – Stop: hard SL above the 15m rejection wick by 0.25–0.50 – Targets: TP1 6751, TP2 6739, TP3 6712 – Invalidation: 6780 converts to support on a full-body 15m close Long breakout continuation above 6780 – Trigger: 15m full-body close beyond 6780 → 5m pullback holds 6777–6780 and re-closes up → 1m higher-low entry – Entry: buy the hold at 6777–6780 – Stop: hard SL below the 15m trigger wick by 0.25–0.50 – Targets: TP1 6804, TP2 6812, TP3 6835–6850 Long sweep-and-reclaim at 6712 → 6691 – Trigger: quick sweep of 6712 (or flush toward 6691) that immediately reclaims 6712 on 5m → 1m higher-low entry – Entry: buy first pullback after the reclaim of 6712 – Stop: hard SL below the 15m sweep wick by 0.25–0.50 – Targets: TP1 6739, TP2 6751, TP3 6773–6780
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
S&P 500 E Mini Futures (ES) Advance in Wave 5 RallyThe short-term Elliott Wave analysis for the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) indicates the Index is currently in the final leg of wave (5), originating from the April 2025 low, before a larger three-wave correction unfolds. The decline to 6540.5 marked the completion of wave (4), followed by an upward turn in wave (5), structured as an impulse Elliott Wave pattern. From the wave (4) low, wave ((i)) concluded at 6718.5, with a subsequent pullback in wave ((ii)) ending at 6593.25. The rally in wave ((iii)) peaked at 6722.5, followed by a dip in wave ((iv)) to 6666. The final wave ((v)) reached 6766.75, completing wave 1 in a higher degree. The ensuing wave 2 correction developed as a double three Elliott Wave structure. From the wave 1 peak, wave ((w)) declined to 6651.5, followed by a wave ((x)) rally to 6750.5. The final wave ((y)) dropped to 6571.25, concluding wave 2. The Index has since resumed its upward trajectory in wave 3. In the near term, wave ((i)) of 3 is expected to conclude soon, followed by a corrective wave ((ii)) to retrace the cycle from the October 17 low before continuing higher. As long as the pivot at 6540.5 remains intact, expect pullbacks to find support in a 3, 7, or 11 swing, setting the stage for further gains.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Rising Volatility Signals Emerging Risks For EquitiesFor all the headlines about inflation risk, interest rate uncertainty, and geopolitical instability, the S&P 500 hasn’t flinched much lately. Price ranges have narrowed, option premiums have deflated since April, and market volatility metrics remain stuck near cycle lows. However, short-dated MES weekly options expiring 24/October — typically more responsive to shifts in implied volatility (IV) — showed an upward shift in the IV smile early in the month, pointing to renewed demand for downside protection. Source: CME QuikVol Historical volatility remains below implied levels, leaving scope for realised volatility to rise to implied levels. Current options positioning suggests that the next volatility move is likely to emerge from downside risk. Source: CME QuikVol The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), reflecting 30-day expected volatility in the S&P 500, drifted toward 15 and stayed compressed for over a month. While this appeared stable, volatility is inherently mean-reverting — especially amid macro uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and year-end positioning. Economic data have not justified a hawkish Fed stance, and markets expect another rate cut at the 29 October meeting. Additional uncertainty stems from the government shutdown, which delayed the September CPI release and left investors without timely inflation guidance. This has amplified market sensitivity to new data and headlines. Meanwhile, Fed officials have turned more dovish, shifting attention from inflation to signs of labour market weakness. Source: CME FedWatch So far, the uncertainty has not prompted a broad flight to safety. Although the VIX has risen almost 60% this month, the S&P 500’s decline was just 1.2% as of 17 October. Markets appear hesitant to reprice risk aggressively without confirmation from data or the Fed — a shift that could accelerate near the 24/October CPI release. When Volatility Snaps Back Historically, volatility spikes have also driven sharp corrections in equity futures. Since 2022, the average duration of a VIX rise regime is about 22 days, with a 7% average correction in equity futures during that period. This trend offers multiple opportunities for traders. With a week left for key macro data to come out and almost two weeks left for the next Fed meeting, a short-term position to gain from volatility expansion could be expressed by deploying a straddle using CME’s E-mini S&P 500 (ES) weekly options. However, with VIX already elevated and reaching 28 late last week, further upside from long volatility trades appears limited. In contrast, a short equity futures position could still benefit from additional downside as uncertainty pressures equities. As of this analysis, VIX had been rising for 7 days, implying that IV could stay elevated for roughly another 15 days based on historical regime durations. Notably, the larger portion of S&P futures’ correction typically occurs during the latter half of this rising volatility phase. The average correction over the latter 15-days is almost 7x more than that observed in the first week of rising IV. And given the 1.3% decline so far in this cycle, there is still room for realised volatility to catch up via an additional 2.7% correction. As on 17/Oct, MES options expiring on 31/Oct serves to capture the remaining 15-day window. Concentrated activity across key strikes in this contract indicates that options traders are pricing in a potential decline of roughly 3% to 7.7% in equity futures. Source: CME QuikStrike In an expanding volatility regime, short S&P 500 futures offer an alternative way to express views on rising volatility. Straddles suit uncertain bias but require larger moves to overcome time decay. With expectations of further downside and higher realised volatility, short futures may be better aligned. Historical Example The inverse correlation between VIX and equity index futures supports a directional bias tied to IV expectations. Historical VIX spikes show extended periods of elevated IV, typically aligning with a 7% average drawdown in equity futures. A strategy that trades in line with the prevailing volatility trend can exploit this pattern. Assuming IV remains elevated, equity futures generally experience their steepest declines during the later part of rising VIX regime. Across the last eight major IV spikes, this relationship has held consistently. The following historical analysis examines a strategy that moves with the prevailing volatility trend. The approach assumes that implied volatility (IV) will remain elevated for an extended period, during which equity futures tend to decline more sharply. As shown in prior instances, this pattern held true across the last eight major IV spikes. A short MES futures position initiated seven days after a VIX spike has historically produced strong returns. For example, during the July 2024 volatility surge (highlighted in green above), entering short at 5600 on 18 July (7 days after VIX started to rise) and exiting 15 days later at 5247 on 5 August would have yielded a profit of (5600 – 5247) × $5 = $1,765. However, the strategy is not consistently profitable. During the September 2023 episode (highlighted in yellow above), a similar short position entered at 4368 on 21/September and exited 15 days later at the same level would have produced no gain, underscoring that historical tendencies serve as context, not certainty. Alternatively, if volatility stabilises and uncertainty eases, short positions could also underperform as equities resume their ascent. This content is sponsored. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by mintdotfinance
ES - October 22nd - Daily Trade PlanOctober 22nd - 6:45am *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Our overnight high is 6789 and overnight low is 6763. Very tight range that should resolve higher today. Ideally, we can get a pull back to the 6750 area and reclaim 6758, 6763. Any price action below 6763 and a quick reclaim would be bullish. IF, price does clear 6789 we could get to 6797, 6807 as first targets and 6812 being a heavy resistance area. IF, price clears then fall back inside the overnight range, we could then lose the 6770, 6763 level and would not want to see price lose 6738 or we may need to retest 6703 area which has been tested a ton over the week and it is also the bull/bear line, I have been discussing since last week. Key Levels Today: 1. Loss of 6770 and reclaim 2. Loss of 6763 and reclaim (Potentially down to 6758) 3. Loss of 6750 and reclaim Price below 6738 and we will probably need to retest the 6703 level. We have to remain bullish with price above 6695 Key Support Levels - 6770, 6763, 6750, 6738, 6712, 6703, 6695 Key Resistance Levels - 6789, 6797, 6807, 6812, 6815, 6827, 6836, 6851 I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES - October 20th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 20th - 6:32am *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Our overnight high is 6738 and our overnight low is 6695. I mentioned on Friday that we needed to hold the 6703 level for us to continue higher. We have been chopping around above 6703 since Friday afternoon. You can clearly see that we tested 6695 on Friday afternoon 3x, before clearing that level, gapping up at the open on Sunday evening and then closing that gap and holding the 6695 resistance now turned into support! 6570 was our low overnight Thursday/Friday and I do not think we reach that level today. Let's look and find other areas that could be good areas to grab points today. Key Levels for Today: 1. Loss of 6718 and reclaim 2. Loss of 6695 and reclaim 3. Loss of 6668 and reclaim 4. Loss of 6642 and reclaim Price below 6642 and we will need to see a flush and reclaim of 6632 or we will need to wait patiently for the 6591 or 6570 levels. Key Support Levels - 6718, 6703, 6695, 6683, 6668, 6653, 6642, 6632, 6624, 6607, 6591, 6570 Key Resistance Levels - 6738, 6749, 6767, 6779, 6797, 6815 We have to remain bullish with price above 6695. 6765 is a key resistance and that level needs to clear for us to really continue higher. We could easily chop around between 6750-6695 today and continue to work inside this range. We can't be bearish until we see price lose 6642, with 6624 being the very lowest or we will be going to retest Friday's lows. I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES - October 23rd - Daily Trade PlanOctober 23rd - 7:05am *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I have been stating all week that "IF we lose 6750 we could flush lower. I also stated that we have to remain bullish price above 6695." I stated on the 9am note - "Be cautious today and get out the way if price does sell off below 6750". What happened? We sold off down to 6690, reclaimed 6695 and bounced late afternoon and overnight into 6750 area. Our overnight high is 6751 and overnight low is 6717. We have 2 main levels that need to hold from the overnight session - 6717 & 6733. IF price can reclaim 6751 area, we should back test to the 6768-70 level. Above 6750 and bulls are back in control. My general lean is that we need to at least retest 6717 level and reclaim we should get a few quick points. IF price loses 6717, we most likely retest the 6695 level and 6674, 6653 are 2 main levels I would be looking for a flush and reclaim to grab points. Key Levels Today: 1. Loss of 6733 and reclaim 2. Loss of 6717 and reclaim 3. Loss of 6703 and reclaim 4. Loss of 6690 and reclaim IF, price loses 6690, I would wait for 6674, 6653 and see IF price can react at one of those levels for a bounce back up the levels. Key Support Levels - 6733, 6726, 6717, 6703, 6690, 6683, 6675, 6668, 6653 Key Resistance Levels - 6742, 6750, 6758, 6763, 6770 I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
S&P 500 (ES1!): Wait For Valid Buy Setups!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Oct. 20-24th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P500 is ranging. More neutral than bullish. But Friday's bullish close indicates potential bullish order flow going into this week. If price can manage to trade above the Monthly Open at 6,725, than buys become valid. I'm not interested in selling this market, unless I see a sure enough bearish BOS. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by RT_Money
ES - October 21st - Daily Trade PlanOctober 21st - 7:30am *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Our overnight high is 6784 and overnight low is 6763. Very tight range that should resolve higher today. Ideally, we can get a pull back to the 6750 area and reclaim 6758, 6763. Any price action below 6763 and a quick reclaim would be bullish. IF, price does clear 6784 we could get to 6791, 6800 as first targets and 6812 being a heavy resistance area. IF, price clears then fall back inside the overnight range, we could then lose the 6770, 6763 level and would not want to see price lose 6738 or we may need to retest 6703 area which has been tested a ton over the week and it is also the bull/bear line, I have been discussing since last week. Key Levels Today: 1. Loss of 6770 and reclaim 2. Loss of 6763 and reclaim (Potentially down to 6758) 3. Loss of 6750 and reclaim Price below 6738 and we will probably need to retest the 6703 level. We have to remain bullish with price above 6695 Key Support Levels - 6770, 6763, 6750, 6738, 6712, 6703, 6695 Key Resistance Levels - 6784, 6797, 6807, 6812, 6815, 6827, 6836, 6851 I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES - October 24th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 24th - 6:35am *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yesterday, I stated "IF price can reclaim 6751 area, we should back test to the 6768-70 level. Above 6750 and bulls are back in control. My general lean is that we need to at least retest 6717 level and reclaim we should get a few quick points. IF price loses 6717, we most likely retest the 6695 level and 6674, 6653 are 2 main levels I would be looking for a flush and reclaim to grab points." We dropped to 6719, cleared 6726 (Which was a strong support level as you can see on the 15min chart overnight at 8pm a massive institutional candle that held 6717 support) and we came back down, grabbed liquidity and then rallied into 6750 resistance, sold off to retest that level and we rallied all day and overnight. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overnight low is 6777 and overnight high is 6798. We have tested this 6798 level 2x overnight and we should get a pull back and then clear on next attempt. We have CPI at 8:30am. While price should hold 6777 and continue higher, we have rallied nearly 100pts into a big data event and we need to be cautious as it could get volatile. Key Levels Today - 1. Loss of 6784 and reclaim 2. Loss of 6774-77 and reclaim 3. Loss of 6763 and reclaim 4. Loss of 6758 (maybe as low as 6750) and reclaim IF price really sells off, the loss of 6742 (maybe as low as 6736) and reclaim would be a good spot. Ideal area would be loss of 6720 and reclaim. We have to view price action as bullish until the trend changes. That would need a loss of 6695 to change that structure. Short term, we need to hold 6750 with 6726 being the lowest or we could flush to 6690-95. Key Support Levels - 6784, 6777, 6774, 6763, 6750, 6744, 6726, 6720, 6711, 6793, 6690 Key Resistance Levels - 6798, 6807, 6812, 6815, 6822, 6827, 6836 I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
3
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups Tue (Oct 21)Market Update for Traders: Context: Currently, the price is approaching a key supply zone between 6,765 and 6,795. While we have seen a series of higher highs on the 1-hour chart, the momentum appears to be flattening. Below this supply level, we have identified some significant areas to monitor. The first clean value area on the 1-hour chart is around 6,701 to 6,705, with a visible pullback shelf located between 6,685 and 6,690. There's also a stronger demand zone in the 6,655 to 6,665 range. If we manage to break above the supply cap at 6,795, the next measured extension target is around 6,840, but this should be treated as a stretch unless we see solid acceptance above 6,795. Key Zones to Watch: Resistance: - 6,765–6,795 (this is the current cap) - Extension potential at 6,840, provided we see firm acceptance above 6,795. Support: - Look for the first decision point around 6,725–6,735, which reflects overnight strength. - 6,701–6,705 is a key equilibrium area. - The shelf for the first buyable dip lies at 6,685–6,690. - Further support is found in the demand pocket at 6,655–6,665. - If we encounter a deeper risk-off scenario, watch for extensions down to 6,604, 6,564, and 6,520, but only if we see a decisive failure in the rebound. Setups: Setup 1 — Rejection Short at 6,765–6,795 (A++) Entry: 6,788–6,793 after a 5m re-close back below 6,795 and a 1m lower-high Stop (SL): 6,804.50 (above rejection wick/upper edge) TP1: 6,729–6,733 TP2: 6,701–6,705 TP3: 6,686–6,690 Setup 2 — Acceptance Long above 6,795 (A++) Entry: 6,796–6,799 on first pullback that holds after decisive 15m acceptance over 6,795 Stop (SL): 6,785.00 (back inside the band) TP1: 6,822–6,828 TP2: 6,840 stretch TP3: 6,852–6,855 if squeeze persists Setup 3 — Quick-Reclaim Long at 6,701 (A+ Bounce) Entry: 6,702–6,705 only if 6,701 briefly slips and then a 5m candle re-closes back above it Stop (SL): 6,694.50 TP1: 6,729–6,733 TP2: 6,765–6,775 TP3: 6,788–6,793 Setup 4 — Shelf Long at 6,685–6,690 (A Bounce) Entry: 6,686–6,689 with a 1m higher-low and 5m hold Stop (SL): 6,678.00 TP1: 6,701–6,705 TP2: 6,729–6,733 TP3: 6,765–6,775 Setup 5 — Demand-Pocket Long at 6,655–6,665 (A Bounce) Entry: 6,657–6,663 on stabilization and 1m higher-low Stop (SL): 6,647.00 TP1: 6,686–6,690 TP2: 6,701–6,705 TP3: 6,729–6,733 Setup 6 — Breakdown Short if 6,701 Turns to Resistance (A+) Entry: 6,698–6,701 after a 5m close below 6,701 and a retest that fails Stop (SL): 6,707.50 TP1: 6,686–6,690 TP2: 6,665–6,660 TP3: 6,604–6,564 only if momentum stays risk-off Management (apply to all) take the setup only if TP1 ≥ 2.0R using the stated SL. At TP1 close 70% and set the 30% runner to break-even; runner attempts TP2→TP3 if structure supports it. Time-stop 45–60 minutes if neither TP1 nor SL is hit. Primary execution windows: NY AM 09:30–11:00 ET and NY PM 13:30–16:00 ET.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Day 53 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$59 & Market Still WeirdRecap & Trades Day 53 — started the day catching clean plays off the X7 and DPBuy signals. Made some solid early gains, but later got stopped out after unexpected news from Trump hit the market. Overall, I finished +$59 — small day, but still green. I’ve noticed the market feels a lot more unpredictable since that big Friday crash — tons of chop and odd gamma behavior. Lesson & Mindset The takeaway: stay adaptive and don’t overtrade uncertainty. This isn’t the time to push size — it’s time to stay patient and observe until the structure normalizes. News & Levels Big story today — Gold saw its largest single-day drop in 12 years, down over 5%. That’s massive. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6760 bullish, below 6715 bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DiYWALLST
Day 54 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$49 & Lessons on ExecutionRecap & Trades Day 54 — the signals were spot-on today but my execution wasn’t. I started with a bullish bias and kept trying to buy the dip when the structure was clearly bearish. Got stopped out around 6714 for -$540, and the market bounced right after — classic. Even so, the system nailed every call today — five for five accuracy. Lesson & Mindset The lesson is clear — you can have the perfect system, but if you don’t execute it perfectly, you can still lose. Don’t let bias override data. Flexibility beats certainty every time. News & Levels Big headline today: Google announced a major quantum computing breakthrough with its new Willow chip — this could reshape the AI hardware landscape. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6760 bullish, below 6715 bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST