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Is ES1! Setting Up for Another Leg Up? Layer Entry Plan💼 ES1! | E-Mini S&P 500 Futures | Thief Market Wealth Strategy Map (Swing/Day Trade) 🚀📈 📊 Plan: Bullish Bias We are mapping the ES1! (E-Mini S&P 500 Futures) with a thief layering strategy for flexible swing/day trading. Thief Entry Layers (Layering Strategy Method) Instead of “one-shot” entries, we use multiple buy limit layers to scale into the move. 💰 Example entry levels: 🔹 6720 🔹 6740 🔹 6760 (👉 Add more layers if you wish, that’s the thief flexibility 🔑) 🛡 Stop-Loss (Thief SL) 📉 6680 ⚠ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending to strictly follow my SL. Manage your own risk — protect your capital thief-style. 🎯 Target (Profit Escape Zone) 📈 6900 — key resistance area + potential overbought zone = possible bull trap! 💡 Escape with profits thief-style before the market traps late buyers. ⚠ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending to strictly follow my TP. Take your own exit when you steal your bag. 🔑 Key Points & Correlations 🟢 ES1! (S&P 500 futures) often correlates with: CME_MINI:NQ1! (Nasdaq Futures) 📡 Tech-driven momentum CBOT_MINI:YM1! (Dow Futures) 🏦 Old-school industrials CME_MINI:RTY1! (Russell Futures) 📈 Small-cap sentiment gauge TVC:VIX (Volatility Index) ⚡ Inverse relationship with risk-on moves Watching these markets helps filter fake pumps and identify real liquidity grabs. ⚡ Thief Trading Philosophy This is not about exact entries — it’s about layering, adapting, and escaping with profits before the crowd realizes. Steal pips. Escape traps. Repeat. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” ⚠ Disclaimer: This is a Thief-Style Trading Strategy Map, created just for fun and market observation. This is NOT financial advice. Trade at your own risk and always manage your capital wisely. #ES1 #SP500 #SPX #Futures #DayTrading #SwingTrading #IndexTrading #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy #ThiefTrader #ScalpAndRun
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by The-Thief
#ES_F Daily TF Longer OutlookSince February break down price has broke out and traveled through two full Daily Ranges. Roll Gap in September has pushed us into New Range which is around 640 - 940 +/- price holding over the Edge brought more buying but as we can see we only had enough strength to get pushes into VAL / Mean, every push over VAL had returns back towards lower Edge until the Flush on the 10th broke the trend after we reached and consolidated at the Mean. When there is a lot of strength inside the range price will usually travel at least through the mean into VAH which so far we have not done, the flush found HTF Support at Medium MA and below lower Edge which was able to take in all the selling and make price rotate back into the Mean to fill the Single Prints which we left on the way down. Of course we can start holding over the smaller MA, the consolidation under can be considered as Support and price can continue grinding higher towards next targets into VAH but few things we have to think about, price spent over a month in this range since the roll gap got us in, we are inside New Range without strong transaction fully through it, lots of uncertainty going around even if things seem good, market has also made a huge move into here from February flush after hitting a big bid at 4800s without many breathers. We are also forming topping patterns up here if you are into patterns then those are clearly visible, this current bounce could be nothing more than a market rotation once selling was taken in and we popped back over smaller MA. IF this buying doesn't stick over this MA and either start moving away over 6800s with holds over or doesn't hold/balance while it lets smaller MA catch up into us to give us a push higher then we could see price return back under Smaller MA and continue with Trend Change process which will require us holding and tightening up between Smaller and Medium MAs to then push us under lower Edge, IF that happens and we start holding under Medium MA and under VAL/Edge then than will change HTF Trend and could start a correction to current trend towards lower targets which would be VAH / Mean and at some point push Into and Under %5 correction, how much we would get from there we would have to see as areas under 6500 - 6400 is our bigger Cost Basis and could be where we would be taking in all this Supply and start building up again. Something to remember is this is Larger TF outlook and over the years we got used to fast flushes, not spending much time at the lows with quick bounces away as everyone just kept buying every chance they get, it takes a while for one trend to finish and so far over the years every time trend tries to or changes into down trend it does not last long instead returns quick into uptrend, something I will be watching out for is for this time IF it happens to be more of a longer period or at least a longer consolidation at/around lows before trend changes to the upside again. All being said we have to watch for IF this then that playing out from here to keep confirming this possibility as it may not happen at all but a lot of signs are currently pointing to this playing out. First steps would be no continuation over current Mean into above VAH and a return back towards Smaller MA/ VAL below us, then holding under Smaller MA would be where we would get more confirmation and start building up for next move. IF This does not play out and instead market will stay in this New Range then what we could see happening is us finding balance and spending some time between current VAH / VAL with pushes above/below coming back inside without much continuation over or under.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
ES - October 23rd - Daily Trade PlanOctober 23rd - 7:05am *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I have been stating all week that "IF we lose 6750 we could flush lower. I also stated that we have to remain bullish price above 6695." I stated on the 9am note - "Be cautious today and get out the way if price does sell off below 6750". What happened? We sold off down to 6690, reclaimed 6695 and bounced late afternoon and overnight into 6750 area. Our overnight high is 6751 and overnight low is 6717. We have 2 main levels that need to hold from the overnight session - 6717 & 6733. IF price can reclaim 6751 area, we should back test to the 6768-70 level. Above 6750 and bulls are back in control. My general lean is that we need to at least retest 6717 level and reclaim we should get a few quick points. IF price loses 6717, we most likely retest the 6695 level and 6674, 6653 are 2 main levels I would be looking for a flush and reclaim to grab points. Key Levels Today: 1. Loss of 6733 and reclaim 2. Loss of 6717 and reclaim 3. Loss of 6703 and reclaim 4. Loss of 6690 and reclaim IF, price loses 6690, I would wait for 6674, 6653 and see IF price can react at one of those levels for a bounce back up the levels. Key Support Levels - 6733, 6726, 6717, 6703, 6690, 6683, 6675, 6668, 6653 Key Resistance Levels - 6742, 6750, 6758, 6763, 6770 I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Rising Volatility Signals Emerging Risks For EquitiesFor all the headlines about inflation risk, interest rate uncertainty, and geopolitical instability, the S&P 500 hasn’t flinched much lately. Price ranges have narrowed, option premiums have deflated since April, and market volatility metrics remain stuck near cycle lows. However, short-dated MES weekly options expiring 24/October — typically more responsive to shifts in implied volatility (IV) — showed an upward shift in the IV smile early in the month, pointing to renewed demand for downside protection. Source: CME QuikVol Historical volatility remains below implied levels, leaving scope for realised volatility to rise to implied levels. Current options positioning suggests that the next volatility move is likely to emerge from downside risk. Source: CME QuikVol The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), reflecting 30-day expected volatility in the S&P 500, drifted toward 15 and stayed compressed for over a month. While this appeared stable, volatility is inherently mean-reverting — especially amid macro uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and year-end positioning. Economic data have not justified a hawkish Fed stance, and markets expect another rate cut at the 29 October meeting. Additional uncertainty stems from the government shutdown, which delayed the September CPI release and left investors without timely inflation guidance. This has amplified market sensitivity to new data and headlines. Meanwhile, Fed officials have turned more dovish, shifting attention from inflation to signs of labour market weakness. Source: CME FedWatch So far, the uncertainty has not prompted a broad flight to safety. Although the VIX has risen almost 60% this month, the S&P 500’s decline was just 1.2% as of 17 October. Markets appear hesitant to reprice risk aggressively without confirmation from data or the Fed — a shift that could accelerate near the 24/October CPI release. When Volatility Snaps Back Historically, volatility spikes have also driven sharp corrections in equity futures. Since 2022, the average duration of a VIX rise regime is about 22 days, with a 7% average correction in equity futures during that period. This trend offers multiple opportunities for traders. With a week left for key macro data to come out and almost two weeks left for the next Fed meeting, a short-term position to gain from volatility expansion could be expressed by deploying a straddle using CME’s E-mini S&P 500 (ES) weekly options. However, with VIX already elevated and reaching 28 late last week, further upside from long volatility trades appears limited. In contrast, a short equity futures position could still benefit from additional downside as uncertainty pressures equities. As of this analysis, VIX had been rising for 7 days, implying that IV could stay elevated for roughly another 15 days based on historical regime durations. Notably, the larger portion of S&P futures’ correction typically occurs during the latter half of this rising volatility phase. The average correction over the latter 15-days is almost 7x more than that observed in the first week of rising IV. And given the 1.3% decline so far in this cycle, there is still room for realised volatility to catch up via an additional 2.7% correction. As on 17/Oct, MES options expiring on 31/Oct serves to capture the remaining 15-day window. Concentrated activity across key strikes in this contract indicates that options traders are pricing in a potential decline of roughly 3% to 7.7% in equity futures. Source: CME QuikStrike In an expanding volatility regime, short S&P 500 futures offer an alternative way to express views on rising volatility. Straddles suit uncertain bias but require larger moves to overcome time decay. With expectations of further downside and higher realised volatility, short futures may be better aligned. Historical Example The inverse correlation between VIX and equity index futures supports a directional bias tied to IV expectations. Historical VIX spikes show extended periods of elevated IV, typically aligning with a 7% average drawdown in equity futures. A strategy that trades in line with the prevailing volatility trend can exploit this pattern. Assuming IV remains elevated, equity futures generally experience their steepest declines during the later part of rising VIX regime. Across the last eight major IV spikes, this relationship has held consistently. The following historical analysis examines a strategy that moves with the prevailing volatility trend. The approach assumes that implied volatility (IV) will remain elevated for an extended period, during which equity futures tend to decline more sharply. As shown in prior instances, this pattern held true across the last eight major IV spikes. A short MES futures position initiated seven days after a VIX spike has historically produced strong returns. For example, during the July 2024 volatility surge (highlighted in green above), entering short at 5600 on 18 July (7 days after VIX started to rise) and exiting 15 days later at 5247 on 5 August would have yielded a profit of (5600 – 5247) × $5 = $1,765. However, the strategy is not consistently profitable. During the September 2023 episode (highlighted in yellow above), a similar short position entered at 4368 on 21/September and exited 15 days later at the same level would have produced no gain, underscoring that historical tendencies serve as context, not certainty. Alternatively, if volatility stabilises and uncertainty eases, short positions could also underperform as equities resume their ascent. This content is sponsored. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by mintdotfinance
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Fri (Oct 24)ES Two-Way Plan (A++) — Level-KZ 15/5/1 Calendar (ET) — Fri Oct 24: 08:30 CPI (Sept). 09:45 S&P Global flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs. 10:00 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final). 14:00 Federal Reserve Board open meeting. Expect compression into 08:30 → expansion on release; execute inside NY AM 09:30–11:00 and PM 13:30–16:00 only. Bias & overnight→NY forecast: Into CPI, lean range-bound 6,770–6,787. A clean hold above the “weak-high” pocket should squeeze toward the 1.272–1.618 extension band; failure back inside favors a drift to the breakout shelves below. Treat the first post-CPI impulse as discovery; take the next confirmed 15m/5m/1m sequence only. Setups - Level-KZ execution (15m→5m→1m) 1) Short Rejection Fade @ 6,785–6,787 (W3): 15m rejection closes back inside → 5m re-close below ~6,783.5 with LH → enter first 1m pullback that stalls beneath the shelf. SL: above the 15m rejection wick ±0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,776–6,777. TP2: 6,759–6,762. TP3: 6,739–6,744. 2) Long Acceptance Continuation > 6,797 (W3): 15m full-body close above 6,797 → 5m pullback holds/re-closes → 1m HL entry. SL: below the 15m trigger/pullback wick ±0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,818 (1.618). TP2: 6,830–6,835. 3) Long Quick-Reclaim Bounce @ 6,759–6,762 (W2): fast flush into the shelf → instant reclaim (15m wick, 5m re-close back above) → 1m HL entry. SL: below the 15m flush wick ±0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,776–6,777. TP2: 6,785–6,787. 4) Short Acceptance Breakdown < 6,759 (W2): 15m body-through below 6,759 → 5m confirms → 1m LH entry. SL: above 15m trigger wick ±0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,739–6,744. TP2: 6,720–6,725.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
S&P 500 E Mini Futures (ES) Advance in Wave 5 RallyThe short-term Elliott Wave analysis for the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) indicates the Index is currently in the final leg of wave (5), originating from the April 2025 low, before a larger three-wave correction unfolds. The decline to 6540.5 marked the completion of wave (4), followed by an upward turn in wave (5), structured as an impulse Elliott Wave pattern. From the wave (4) low, wave ((i)) concluded at 6718.5, with a subsequent pullback in wave ((ii)) ending at 6593.25. The rally in wave ((iii)) peaked at 6722.5, followed by a dip in wave ((iv)) to 6666. The final wave ((v)) reached 6766.75, completing wave 1 in a higher degree. The ensuing wave 2 correction developed as a double three Elliott Wave structure. From the wave 1 peak, wave ((w)) declined to 6651.5, followed by a wave ((x)) rally to 6750.5. The final wave ((y)) dropped to 6571.25, concluding wave 2. The Index has since resumed its upward trajectory in wave 3. In the near term, wave ((i)) of 3 is expected to conclude soon, followed by a corrective wave ((ii)) to retrace the cycle from the October 17 low before continuing higher. As long as the pivot at 6540.5 remains intact, expect pullbacks to find support in a 3, 7, or 11 swing, setting the stage for further gains.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Day 55 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$452 | Rested and FocusRecap & Trades Day 55 — I finally caught up on sleep last night and it made a huge difference. Woke up focused, saw the bullish structure signal early, and just stayed on the long side all session. Didn’t fight the trend, didn’t short — just stayed in BTD mode and let the system do the heavy lifting. Ended the day +$452 and feeling great. Lesson & Mindset When you’re rested, you make better decisions. Sleep sharpens reaction time, patience, and emotional control — all critical traits for traders. Don’t underestimate rest as part of your trading system. News & Levels Today’s main headline: Bank reserves dropped below $3 trillion for the second week straight. That’s a macro factor to watch — tighter liquidity can ripple into equities soon. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6760 bullish, below 6735 bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
3
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Thur (Oct 23)Bias: The market shows a neutral to slightly bullish outlook as long as prices remain above the 6739–6751 control band. A decisive break and sustained trading above 6780 would indicate a shift in momentum to the upside, targeting the levels of 6804 to 6812. Conversely, if we lose support at 6739, we could see a decline toward 6712, with 6691 serving as a key level that may attract selling pressure. Execution windows: London 02:00–05:00 optional small size. NY AM 09:30–11:00 primary. NY PM 13:30–16:00 primary. Midday is manage-only; avoid initiating. Setups Short pop-and-fail at 6773–6780 – Trigger: 15m rejection back inside the band → 5m re-close below ~6773 → first 1m pullback stalls beneath 6773 – Entry: sell the pullback beneath 6773 – Stop: hard SL above the 15m rejection wick by 0.25–0.50 – Targets: TP1 6751, TP2 6739, TP3 6712 – Invalidation: 6780 converts to support on a full-body 15m close Long breakout continuation above 6780 – Trigger: 15m full-body close beyond 6780 → 5m pullback holds 6777–6780 and re-closes up → 1m higher-low entry – Entry: buy the hold at 6777–6780 – Stop: hard SL below the 15m trigger wick by 0.25–0.50 – Targets: TP1 6804, TP2 6812, TP3 6835–6850 Long sweep-and-reclaim at 6712 → 6691 – Trigger: quick sweep of 6712 (or flush toward 6691) that immediately reclaims 6712 on 5m → 1m higher-low entry – Entry: buy first pullback after the reclaim of 6712 – Stop: hard SL below the 15m sweep wick by 0.25–0.50 – Targets: TP1 6739, TP2 6751, TP3 6773–6780
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Tuesday, Oct 21st Weekly Forecast UPDATES!Welcome to the Weekly Forecast Updates! In this video, we will analyze the following markets: DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NASDAQ, S&P500 Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
15
NQ & ES After Hours Comment Wednesday 22-10-2025As anticipated, price played out exactly as outlined in this morning’s plan. Notice the strong reaction and precision around the two purple levels — price initially dipped below the first line, found temporary support, bounced slightly, and then broke through. (I mentioned earlier that longs around the first level required caution — either to take quick profits or to move stops to breakeven early.) From there, price continued lower toward the second purple line, where it finally encountered meaningful support. The downside move paused right at that level, creating conditions for potential long setups from here. There was also a solid short opportunity in the ES earlier in the session, as NQ pushed higher and printed fresh intraday highs while ES lagged behind — a classic sign of divergence and potential reversal. I hope you managed this move well and found the analysis insightful and actionable. Back here tomorrow at 08:45 AM NY time (45 minutes ahead of the market open). PF
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by FTAKAS
ES - October 22nd - Daily Trade PlanOctober 22nd - 6:45am *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Our overnight high is 6789 and overnight low is 6763. Very tight range that should resolve higher today. Ideally, we can get a pull back to the 6750 area and reclaim 6758, 6763. Any price action below 6763 and a quick reclaim would be bullish. IF, price does clear 6789 we could get to 6797, 6807 as first targets and 6812 being a heavy resistance area. IF, price clears then fall back inside the overnight range, we could then lose the 6770, 6763 level and would not want to see price lose 6738 or we may need to retest 6703 area which has been tested a ton over the week and it is also the bull/bear line, I have been discussing since last week. Key Levels Today: 1. Loss of 6770 and reclaim 2. Loss of 6763 and reclaim (Potentially down to 6758) 3. Loss of 6750 and reclaim Price below 6738 and we will probably need to retest the 6703 level. We have to remain bullish with price above 6695 Key Support Levels - 6770, 6763, 6750, 6738, 6712, 6703, 6695 Key Resistance Levels - 6789, 6797, 6807, 6812, 6815, 6827, 6836, 6851 I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Day 54 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$49 & Lessons on ExecutionRecap & Trades Day 54 — the signals were spot-on today but my execution wasn’t. I started with a bullish bias and kept trying to buy the dip when the structure was clearly bearish. Got stopped out around 6714 for -$540, and the market bounced right after — classic. Even so, the system nailed every call today — five for five accuracy. Lesson & Mindset The lesson is clear — you can have the perfect system, but if you don’t execute it perfectly, you can still lose. Don’t let bias override data. Flexibility beats certainty every time. News & Levels Big headline today: Google announced a major quantum computing breakthrough with its new Willow chip — this could reshape the AI hardware landscape. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6760 bullish, below 6715 bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
Day 53 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$59 & Market Still WeirdRecap & Trades Day 53 — started the day catching clean plays off the X7 and DPBuy signals. Made some solid early gains, but later got stopped out after unexpected news from Trump hit the market. Overall, I finished +$59 — small day, but still green. I’ve noticed the market feels a lot more unpredictable since that big Friday crash — tons of chop and odd gamma behavior. Lesson & Mindset The takeaway: stay adaptive and don’t overtrade uncertainty. This isn’t the time to push size — it’s time to stay patient and observe until the structure normalizes. News & Levels Big story today — Gold saw its largest single-day drop in 12 years, down over 5%. That’s massive. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6760 bullish, below 6715 bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DiYWALLST
S&P 500 (ES1!): Wait For Valid Buy Setups!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Oct. 20-24th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P500 is ranging. More neutral than bullish. But Friday's bullish close indicates potential bullish order flow going into this week. If price can manage to trade above the Monthly Open at 6,725, than buys become valid. I'm not interested in selling this market, unless I see a sure enough bearish BOS. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by RT_Money