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When Liquidity Dried Up — The True Story Behind the Oct 10 Crash█ We Actually Saw It Coming There were clear signs of potential reversals across major markets before the Friday, October 10, 2025 crash. You can see it in the liquidity heatmaps: Gold, Bitcoin, S&P, and other futures all trading above their top 10 liquidity levels. When that happens, it’s usually a warning flag. Price is moving into areas with less visible liquidity, meaning fewer resting orders available to absorb aggressive buyers. That’s when the market becomes fragile and doesn’t take much to trigger a sharp reversal. █ When Price Trades Beyond Visible Liquidity It’s easy to think big moves happen just because of news, but beneath the surface, microstructure signals often show when markets are already vulnerable. One of the clearest is when the mid-price extends beyond the visible liquidity, above the top few ask levels or below the top few bid levels in the order book. Suppose price pushes beyond the visible top levels. In that case, it often means that liquidity was consumed faster than it could replenish, either because aggressive orders cleared it out, or market makers pulled their quotes. That’s when we get what’s called a liquidity vacuum. Research from the Federal Reserve, Bank for International Settlements, and academic studies (Lo & Hall, 2014; Meldrum & Sokolinskiy, 2025) all point to the same thing: When order book depth is shallow, markets become more fragile. Prices overreact, spreads widen, and shocks travel faster. █ What the Heatmap Really Shows Those heatmaps are a visual snapshot of this structure. The green and red bands show the depth of buy and sell orders — the liquidity zones. The blue line is the mid-price — the true current market price. When the blue line (mid-price) moves above the red zone, it means price has traded beyond the top available asks. That can happen because: Buyers lifted all nearby sell orders (aggressive buying), or Sellers pulled liquidity (passive withdrawal). In both cases, the effect is the same, the book thins out, and volatility risk increases. Heatmaps don’t show everything though. They don’t reveal: Hidden or iceberg orders deeper in the book, Off-exchange liquidity or block trades, Or how quickly the book replenishes in real time. But as a visual proxy, they’re incredibly useful for spotting moments when price runs ahead of available liquidity, often right before sharp reversals. █ Why the Crash Hit So Hard So while the crash came from unexpected news, the speed of that drop wasn’t random. Markets were already fragile. Liquidity across assets was thin. When the shock hit, there weren’t enough resting orders to slow it down. Gold, Bitcoin, and S&P futures all had their mid-prices trading above visible liquidity, making them more sensitive to aggressive selling; that’s why the market fell almost simultaneously and so fast. █ How I Handle These Setups Whenever I see price trading above visible liquidity, I start managing risk differently. I might keep existing longs, but I won’t add new ones. Instead, I scale out gradually and watch for potential short setups if other signals confirm it. It’s not about predicting crashes, it’s about recognizing when the market’s structure is fragile. █ Quick Takeaway When the mid-price trades above visible liquidity, the order book is telling you something simple but powerful: “There’s not much support up here.” That’s often when it pays to get defensive, not aggressive. Access the CME Liquidity tool at this link ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Zeiierman
26
ES - October 9th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 9th- 6:3am EST *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yesterday we held the 7663 range and rallied higher, meeting the first 2 weekly targets at 6807 and 6813. I wrote in my 12:28pm Update - Note the following: IF, you zoom out on the chart to a higher time frame and even down to a 1-hour time frame, you can clearly see that Institutions have been buying any dips below 6750-6765 and we then sold off 2x at the 6802 zone. IF, price can clear this level and hold we should have a new range between 6800 - 6850. I still think we can get one more pull back before we go higher. I am going to take the afternoon off and let price this afternoon decide what it wants to do and will look for new entry's tomorrow. IF, price does lose the 6750-56 level on any pullback, that would be bearish and a warning to the bigger/current market structure. Price really should not lose 6770-74, with 6760-63 being the very lowest, IF, price wants to continue higher. Since the overnight session we have been building a base with the overnight low at 6794 and the high of 6812. We need to keep price above 6788 with a flush and reclaim of 6793-94 being bullish and should take us higher to the 6818, 6822+ targets. IF, price loses 6788, we will most likely need to test 6766-70 and see if we have much liquidity left at this level. Highest quality setups are the following: 1. Flush 6793 and reclaim for a move higher 2. Flush 6788 (maybe down to 6783) and reclaim for a move to back test the 6794 level Key Support Levels - 6793-94, 6788, 6783, 6774, 6763, 6758, 6747, 6741, 6732, 6715, 6705 Key Resistance Levels - 6802, 6807, 6812+ IF, price rallies above 6812 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above. I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
3
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups Fri (Oct 10)Session Roadmap (London → NY) London (02:00–05:00 ET): Expect balance 6792–6807. A sustained London hold above 6802–6805 increases odds of a pre-NY probe into 6809–6812. A London slip below 6784.5 shifts risk to a VWAP check 6777–6780 and potentially 6766–6761 into NY AM. NY AM (09:30–11:00): Two-way opening likely unless 6812 converts rapidly; watch 9:45–10:05 for the sentiment print impulse. NY PM (13:30–16:00): If morning sets a trend, expect continuation toward RE1/RE2; otherwise back-to-value rotations inside 6780–6795. TIER-1 (A++) — Breakout LONG above PDH/ONH Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6810–6812, then a 5m hold/re-close with HLs. Entry: 6810.75–6812.25 on the first clean retest/hold. Invalidation (hard SL): 6804.75 (below retest & today’s open region). TPs: TP1 6821.75 (RE1), TP2 6834.00, TP3 6841.25. TIER-1 (A++) — Breakdown SHORT through Y-VAL/PDL Trigger: 15m full-body close below 6766.5 and then 6760.75, with a 5m retest 6764–6766 that fails. Entry: 6764.00–6766.00 on the rejection. Invalidation (hard SL): 6772.50 (back above value shelf). TPs: TP1 6748.50, TP2 6736.50, TP3 6729.00. TIER-2 (A+ Bounce) — Quick-reclaim LONG at Value Shelf Trigger: Fast flush into 6777–6780 with a 1m reclaim of 6780.5 and 5m re-close above. Entry: 6778.00–6780.50 after the reclaim. SL: 6771.25. TPs: TP1 6792.75 (Asia H pivot), TP2 6805.50 (today’s open/nearby shelf), runner eye 6810–6812 if momentum. TIER-3 (A Bounce) — Exhaustion-flush LONG at PDL Trigger: Liquidity sweep 6758–6752 that reclaims 6761 on 1m and 5m holds. Entry: 6754–6756 on the reclaim. SL: 6750.75. TPs: TP1 6777.75 (VWAP), TP2 6789–6792 (pivot band). === Price-Path Scenarios (most to least likely) Balance → Break Probe: Early churn inside 6792–6807; successful lift through 6810–6812 post-10:00 unlocks 6821.75 (RE1). Fade to Value: Early rejection at 6809–6812 leads to a drift back into 6784/80 → 6777.75; buyers defend value and keep the range intact. Bear Extension (data-shock needed): Clean 15m close below 6766.5/6760.75 opens 6748.50 with potential follow-through to 6736.50.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES - October 15th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 15th - 6:25am *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I am not going to go into much detail about yesterday as I have detailed out the trades that I took, which aligned with my edge. It was a great short squeeze yesterday and it all played out at the optimal timeframe while I was at my desk. The overnight low is 6683 and our overnight high is 6732. I stated in the 4:52pm note yesterday that " Any reclaim of 6692-94 would be bullish overnight and give us another attempt at the 6720 level to take price higher." - This is what happened and we have grinded into some overhead resistance at 6732 with 6738-42 being a strong resistance. Since price grinded slowly higher overnight, my lean is we need a pullback to keep things moving higher. While I do not rely solely on technical bull/bear flags, the white trendlines that are drawn, could be a bearish structure that could reach 6742-44 area, then pullback to the 6642 area. The white trendline moving up, IF, price reaches it, should give us a nice bounce for points, then we would expect price to lose this level and move lower. (IF, price does pull back and we take out the 6744-48 level and are successful, any back test should be good for price to move higher, this would also make the bear flag invalid) Levels I am looking to grab some points at today: 1. Any loss and reclaim of 6705 2. Loss of 6683 and reclaim (maybe getting as low as 6666 and then reclaim 6674) 3. Loss of 6660 and reclaim 4. Loss of 6632 and reclaim (could be the bounce of the white trendline) 5. Loss of 6593 and reclaim (Yesterday's low) Below those levels and we will most likely be in free fall to retest the 6540 level which could be the last area to give us a bounce. IF, price loses any levels lower than 6540, you will want to be patient and let price build a base to take a long on the reclaim of a level above. Key Support Levels - 6720, 6705, 6683, 6674, 6660, 6642, 6632, 6624, 6593, 6575, 6550, 6540 Key Resistance Levels - 6732, 6744-48, 6758, 6778 IF, price rallies above 6732 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above. I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Levels, Setups for Tue (Oc 14)News & Event Map (ET) • 06:00 NFIB Small-Business Optimism (Sept). • 08:45 Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman remarks. • 12:20 Fed Chair Powell keynote. • Mid-day U.S. T-bill auctions (6-wk, 13-/26-wk close mid-day). • Backdrop: Fresh U.S.–China port fee headlines add a macro risk-off/risk-on toggle. • Earnings: Early-season, light but picking up (e.g., Bank OZK, ESLT, NEWT). Read: plan London 02:00–05:00, NY AM 09:30–11:00, PM 13:30–16:00. Avoid initiating during Powell’s window unless already risk-reduced. For overnight London session: 1) A Bounce (Tier-3) — Long from 6,661–6,672 (only on exhaustion + reclaim) • Trigger: Flush into the band → 1m reclaim → 5m up-close. • Invalidation/SL: Below 6,653. • TP1: 6,689–6,692 (take 70%, runner BE). • TP2: 6,706–6,710. • Note: If the stop required to the 15m wick makes TP1 < 2R, skip. 2) Reclaim-Fail Short (Tier-1 quality) — Short on 6,689–6,692 retest-fail • Trigger: Pop back into 6,689–6,692, 15m can’t hold above, 5m rolls over; 1m LH entry. • SL: Above 6,696–6,698. • TP1: 6,672 → 6,666. • TP2: 6,661. • Stretch: 6,640–6,650 if momentum persists. 3) Breakdown Continuation (Tier-1) — Short on 15m acceptance below 6,661 • Trigger: 15m full-body close < 6,661, then 5m retest holds below. • SL: Back above 6,666–6,668. • TP1: 6,640–6,650. • TP2: Trail for a bleed toward mid-650s if tape stays heavy. For NY session: Tier-1 A++ (Major) — Short at 6,718–6,725 • Trigger (Rejection-Fade): 15m close back below 6,718 after a wick through; 5m re-close lower with LH; 1m first pullback entry. • SL: Above 6,730 (±0.25–0.50). • TP1: 6,689–6,692 (close 70% → runner BE). • TP2: 6,661–6,672. • TP3: 6,645–6,650. • Invalidation: 15m full-body acceptance ≥6,725 (don’t fade; flip to the long continuation play). Tier-1 A++ (Major) — Long continuation on 6,725+ acceptance • Trigger (Acceptance-Go): 15m full-body close ≥6,725 → 5m pullback holds 6,718–6,721 and re-closes up → 1m HL entry. • SL: Below 6,712 (±0.25–0.50). • TP1: 6,735–6,745. • TP2: 6,760 area. • TP3: 6,780 stretch. • Invalidation: 15m close back inside 6,718 after entry. Tier-2 A+ Bounce — Quick-reclaim long at 6,689–6,692 • Trigger: Sweep/flush into the band, instant reclaim on 1m → 5m up-close. • SL: Below 6,682. • TP1: 6,707–6,710. • TP2: 6,718–6,725. • TP3: 6,735. • Size: ¾ standard. Tier-3 A Bounce — Exhaustion flush long at 6,661–6,672 • Trigger: Capitulation wick + 5m bullish re-close from the band. • SL: 6,653. • TP1: 6,689–6,692. • TP2: 6,706–6,710. • TP3: 6,718. • Size: ½ standard. PA projections: Market Analysis: London to New York Trading Session London Session (02:00–05:00) In the early hours, the base case scenario for the market suggests a modest advance to the 6,661–6,672 range, followed by a brief spike to 6,689–6,692. However, resistance is expected to kick in at this level, potentially leading to a reversal back to 6,672 and down to 6,661. In a bearish scenario, if there is a 15-minute acceptance below 6,661, we may target 6,640–6,650 as potential support levels. Pre-New York Session (08:00–09:30) As long as prices remain below 6,689, we anticipate the formation of a lower high beneath 6,700, exerting downward pressure towards 6,661. There is a heightened risk of a flush toward 6,645–6,650 during this period. New York Morning Session (09:30–11:00) The bearish sentiment is likely to persist if prices remain under 6,689, with selling opportunities expected towards 6,661 and the 6,645–6,650 range. The momentum in this phase will determine whether we establish a base or continue to decline. Conversely, a bullish alternative may emerge if there is a sustained 15-minute close above 6,689 for 30 to 60 minutes, which could pivot the market towards a buying strategy, targeting 6,706–6,710 and possibly testing 6,718–6,725. A decisive move above 6,725 would shift the focus to 6,735–6,745. Key Levels to Watch Bullish Scenario: A successful flip to bullish sentiment would require two consecutive 15-minute closes above 6,689, with pullbacks holding at this level. Bearish Confirmation: A bearish confirmation would manifest through a 15-minute full-body close below 6,661, followed by a failed retest from below. Conclusion: The outlook remains inherently biased towards a sell-rallies strategy throughout the trading day from London into New York, as long as prices stay below 6,689. A recovery and sustained hold above this threshold would redirect attention to tests of 6,706 and 6,718.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Thu, Oct 9Market Drivers (ET) • 08:30 — Fed Chair Powell: pre-recorded welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference. risk flag • 08:30 — Initial Jobless Claims: suspended while the federal government remains shut down; will publish only if funding is restored before release time. • 08:35 — Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman: opening remarks (same conference). • 09:45 — Treasury Sec. Bessent remarks & fireside chat (conference item; headline risk is modest). • 10:30 — EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage (standard Thursday slot). • 11:30 — Treasury 4- & 8-week bill auctions (regular Thursday bills). • 13:00 — Treasury 30-Year Bond (reopening) auction. • All day: Other conference sessions (payments, community-bank panels; closing remarks late afternoon) may generate minor tape headlines. A++ Setups (NY kill-zones: 09:30–11:00 & 13:30–16:00) 1) Breakout Continuation LONG (Tier-1 A++) — 6,809 unlocks Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,809, then 5m holds a retest 6,803–6,806 and re-closes up. Entry: 1m higher-low on the retest hold. Invalidation: Hard SL just below the 15m trigger-wick (±0.25–0.50 pts). Targets: TP1 6,828–6,832, TP2 6,844–6,848, stretch 6,895± if trend day forms. 2) Rejection SHORT (Tier-1 A++) — Fail at 6,803–6,809 Trigger: Sweep/fail above 6,803–6,809 → 15m closes back inside ≤6,803; 5m forms a lower-high and re-closes down. Entry: 1m LH after the 5m re-close. Invalidation: Hard SL a tick beyond the rejection wick. Targets: TP1 6,789, TP2 6,766–6,759, stretch 6,738–6,733. Market Update and Trading Insight Overnight Analysis: As we enter the London session, we should expect a balanced trading range between 6,789 and 6,806. If we can hold above 6,797 as we transition into the European market, this may set the stage for a pre-New York move targeting the 6,803 to 6,809 area. Any shallow pullbacks that maintain the 6,797 to 6,799 support level will likely keep the bullish trend intact. 08:30 ET (Powell Speech - Pre-recorded): The potential for significant market movements at this timing appears modest. Since there is no jobless claims data this week, we anticipate that the typical volatility around 08:30 will be lighter than usual. Should Powell's comments come across as neutral, expect trading activity to focus more on market levels and flows rather than on hard data.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES (SPY, SPX) Analyses, Key Levels, Setups for Wed (Oct 15)Context Price is currently positioned just below a light supply band and above a cluster of intraday supports. I’m planning for a balance-to-break day: either a push through the overhead resistance or a drop back into yesterday’s lower range. Event Windows (volatility timing only) • London: 02:00–05:00 ET • NY AM: 09:30–11:00 ET • NY PM: 13:30–16:00 ET (watch for afternoon headlines/ Fed summaries) (Use these as timing windows; trade the levels & structure.) Playbook Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15m→5m→1m) 1) A++ Continuation LONG — 6718–6725 → 6740–6748 Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6725, 5m pullback holds, 1m HL entry. Invalidation: below 15m trigger wick / ≈6712. Targets: TP1 6740–6748, TP2 6790–6800 (runner). Notes: Only take first clean acceptance; avoid chasing if it “pop-and-fails.” 2) A+ First-Touch FADE SHORT — 6740–6748 Trigger: Sweep into 6740–6748, 5m re-close back inside, 1m LH entry. Invalidation: through ≈6750–6752 with 15m body hold. Targets: TP1 6725→6700, TP2 6689 (runner to 6666 if pressure persists). 3) A Bounce LONG — 6666 / 6658–6660 Trigger: Stop-run flush into 6666 (or 6658–6660) and instant reclaim; 1m confirmation, then 5m hold. Invalidation: clean 15m body below 6658. Targets: TP1 6689, TP2 6700, TP3 6718–6725. 4) A++ Breakdown SHORT — 6666 → 6623 Trigger: 15m acceptance below 6666, retest fails, 1m LH entry. Invalidation: back above 6666 on a 15m close. Targets: TP1 6623–6625, TP2 6593. === Session Checklist • Start with the 6700 pivot: who controls opening drive? • At 6718–6725, decide between acceptance (trend) vs rejection (fade). • Respect 6666 on first touch for a bounce attempt; flip bias only on 15m acceptance below. • If TP1 hits, take size off and protect the runner; don’t trail before TP2. === Bias Summary • Above 6725: constructive, looking for 6740–6748 → 6790–6800. • Between 6700 and 6725: rotational; trade the edges. • Below 6689: sellers pressing; eyes on 6666. • Accepted below 6666: opens 6623–6593 path. Good trading. Manage risk; two attempts per level, max.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Day 48 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Risk Down, Focus UpRecap & Trades Day 48 — I slept 10 hours to recover from the flu, woke up a bit foggy, and just eased into the day. Took my time reviewing market structure and waited for clean confirmation before taking any trades. The 11:40 VXAlgo DD Sell Signal lined up perfectly with the bearish flip and 10-min MOB zone — I shorted the recovery and let the market do the work. Missed a few bottom orders, but overall execution was clean and controlled. Lesson & Mindset The key lesson today: when you’re on a hot streak, the best move isn’t to press harder — it’s to protect the gains. That’s why I’m reducing my position size for the next few sessions. This isn’t about making more; it’s about keeping what I’ve earned. News & Levels Headline: The IRS plans to furlough 34,000 employees as the U.S. government shutdown continues — something to keep an eye on for market volatility. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6785 bullish, below 6765 bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
1
ES1!: Trading range and Levels for Oct 6 - 7 Haven't shared day trading levels in a while. Here are the levels for ES1! that I am watching. The labels correspond to the probability of hitting based on the condition of passing one level. For example, ES1! has crossed below 6,784, putting at hit of 6,773 at 85%. If it crosses below that, the next level has an 89% chance of hitting, etc. etc. Not advice, just sharing levels for your reference if you're interested. As always, safe trades!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Steversteves
8
ES - Weekly Trading Plan - October 12th - 17thOctober 12th - 5:45pm We had a great week, and Institutions continued to buy and keep price moving higher to our first weekly targets of 6807, 6813. On Friday, price looked like it was trying to go higher and then we got our first big "Trump Tweet" that gave Institutions an opportunity to sell! When we sell off like we did, it tells me that Institutions have been distributing heavily since FOMC in September. They had been building a nice base between 6741 - 6813 and with the right headline, it is time for them to sell. This level of selling, also shows you how leveraged retail traders were long, heading into this week! I said last week that "we really need to hold the 6750 level, or we will need to pull back further for us to find liquidity to move higher. Ideally, we pull back to the 6720-25 level and then continue higher. IF, we lose the 6705 level, we will most likely need to retest last week's low at 6680-85." I stated on my daily trade plan at 9:54am - Update "Big sellers stepped in at 6807 level. Price really needs to hold 6790 lowest or this could be a false breakout, and we would continue lower down the levels. Bullish if price reclaims 6794." Then on the 11:01am- Update "Big sell off and not something you want to stand in the way of trying to pick a bottom. I mentioned that we needed to hold 6750 or we would see lower prices at 6729 first level, then 6705. The way the market just sold off, it will take a while for a base to build and shorts to get squeezed. I would be patient, and I may not trade again today. I will see how price does this afternoon." My edge never gave me another opportunity for a trade the rest of Friday and honestly, anyone that said they went long on Friday, was gambling and, IF, profitable was lucky. IF, you truly watched price action it was running 10+pts up and down ranges so fast that it was very difficult trading conditions. Let's talk about this week! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I have tried to clean up the weekly chart to keep it as simple as possible since we lost some major levels and are down at early September levels. We did sell off in the after-hours even further down to around 6540. Any loss this evening of that level and reclaim of it in the overnight session, will be a good start for us to back test the levels higher. IF, this is just a regular buy the dip after a sell off, we should be able to reclaim 6740 and hold 6680 by end of the week. The strength over the next couple of weeks will really determine, IF, we can continue the bull run above 6813. We have not had 2 red weeks back-to-back since the April low. We have to take price day to day and week to week. Overall, we are still in a bullish trend and that really won't change until we lose 6300 level as first big warning sign. Until then, we need to expect a buy the dip regime to continue! When ES sells off the way it did, we have a very high probability that a short squeeze is coming in the next day or so. How do we ride with the institutions for the back test of the loss of the 6762-66 level? We find good levels that we can enter at and ride price higher. Key Support Levels - 6540, 6510, 6485, 6460, 6430, 6421, 6371 Key Resistance Levels - 6551, 6575, 6588, 6611, 6626, 6665, 6680, 6705, 6740 Ideally, we will start to build a base below 6540 overnight and then we can catch the reclaim of that level for a move higher. I could also see us lose 6540, flush down to 6510 or 6485, bounce to retest the 6540 level, come back down overnight, get everyone scared it's going to flush again and then provide a massive, short squeeze. IF, price does reclaim 6540, the reclaim of 6575, 6588, 6611 are next 3 levels above that we can try and find some structure built at for a move up the levels. I have no idea what price will do at the open and during the overnight session. I will post my Daily Trade Plan by 6am EST after the overnight session to get a sense for what levels we want to try, and grab points out of tomorrow. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple Levels - Weekly High/Low Green Levels - Weekly Targets Yellow Levels - Daily Key Levels (See Daily Trade Plan) White - Trendlines that may produce support/resistance alongside the horizontal trendlines
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES - October 14th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 14th - 6:20am *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ES gapped up on Sunday evening and we were range bound all day waiting patiently on a pullback. We reached our 6632 first target from yesterday overnight but have not had follow through and we now look like we need to close the gap at 6600 at some point today. Overnight session high was 6720 and our low as of typing this plan is currently 6624. Ideally, we can continue to fill the gap, flush 6540 level, maybe down to 6514, 6495, or a lower level and then reclaim the immediate level above. IF, price does not flush 6540, we need to look for a gap fill and reclaim of 6624. We could also see a quick flush down to 6000, then a reclaim of 6607 would also be potential spot to grab points higher. I do expect a short squeeze today and I will be patiently waiting to see what price does in the first 30 mins of NYSE Open. Key Levels for today to grab points: 1. Loss of 6624 and reclaim for points higher 2. Gap closed around 6000 with a reclaim of 6607 3. Loss of 6591 and reclaim for points higher 4. Loss of 6540 and reclaim of 6549 for points higher IF, price loses any levels lower than 6540, you will want to be patient and let price build a base to take a long on the reclaim of a level above. Key Support Levels - 6624, 6607, 6600, 6591, 6540, 6514, 6495 Key Resistance Levels - 6632, 6643, 6653, 6674, 6688, 6705, 6720 I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
1
ES - October 13th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 13th - 8:15am *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ES sold off on Friday, and we gapped up last night with our overnight high at 6705 and low of 6632. We have a massive gap below that needs to be filled at some point in the coming days. Today, we should start to build some structure as we work on evaluating key levels that Institutions are looking to build positions at. When price gaps up like it did last night, I would be cautious on longs until we can fill the gap below. Today I will look to find some points at the following levels: 1. Flush and reclaim of 6632 2. Flush and reclaim of 6540 IF, price does fill the gap and retest the 6540 level, we could go to 6495, 6436 and any reclaim of level above those levels, should take us higher. Key Support Levels - 6660, 6645, 6632, 6607, 6591, 6575, 6540, 6514 Key Resistance Levels - 6680, 6705, 6715, 6737, 6750-56 IF, we lose 6632 and can't reclaim quickly, we should fill the gap below pretty quickly. Be patient today and let's see what happens in the first hour of trading. I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
S&P500: Rebound Offers Relief, But Downtrend Likely to ContinueThe S&P 500 managed to recover somewhat, which helped to partially offset the recent sell-offs. However, we continue to expect the ongoing wave (4) in magenta to extend further to the downside. We anticipate that the low of this wave will be reached within the similarly colored long Target Zone (6,055 points – 5,822 points), before a new upward move begins that should push the index above resistance at 6,812 points. At that level, the magenta five-wave sequence should be completed, and the high of the higher-level wave (III) in blue should be established. Given recent price action, we have added a bearish alternative scenario to the chart. This scenario suggests that the most recent high has already marked the end of the large wave alt.(III) in blue, and that the index has since entered the corrective wave alt.(IV) . If support at 5,528 points is breached, this scenario will be triggered. Long positions within the magenta Target Zone could therefore be protected with a stop set 1% below the lower edge of the zone to limit risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MarketIntel
ES - October 8th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 8th- 6:55am EST *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yesterday, I stated the following in my trade plan "IF, price rallies above 6792 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above." What happened when we made a high around 6802 at 9am and price fell back into the range? We sold off and anyone that was not patiently waiting on levels below with a good entry strategy, would not have been profitable. You can review my real-time notes on the 2 trades that I took and can also play back the price action and see that we hit the 6747 green level exactly and have been moving higher since that low yesterday. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Let's get into today! You can look at the 15 min chart and see a nice set of higher highs, higher lows since the low yesterday. What does that mean? We can easily understand that the trend is up and until that most recent lower low is taken out, we should continue higher. We are coming into the overnight high of 6774 and our low of overnight session is at 6758. IF, price can clear 6774, we should back test the 6783 level. Any loss of 6763 is a warning sign that we could head lower and a loss of 6758 would most likely produce a retest of the 6747 low. Highest quality setups are the following: 1. Flush 6758 and reclaim for a move higher 2. Flush of 6747 (down to 6741-43) and reclaim for a move higher 3. Flush of 6741 (down to 6737, 6732) and reclaim for a move higher These are the 3 main levels; I am looking to grab points from. Key Support Levels - 6763, 6758, 6747, 6741, 6732, 6715, 6705 Key Resistance Levels - 6774, 6783, 6792, 6800, 6807+ IF, price rallies above 6774 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above. I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key-Zones, Week (Mon 10/13 → Fri 10/17)Macro drivers to watch (ET) Powell (NABE) — Tue 10/14 ~12:20. Markets will parse tone on growth/inflation. (Fed official calendar confirms time & venue.) PPI (Sep) — Thu 10/16 8:30. First major U.S. inflation print of the week. (BLS “Next Release”.) Advance Retail Sales (Sep) — Thu 10/16 8:30. Key read on demand into holiday season. (Census “MARTS” note; FRED release calendar.) CPI (Sep) — not this week; rescheduled to Fri 10/24 8:30 due to the shutdown. (BLS reschedule notice; CPI schedule.) Earnings kick-off (could move ES): JPM Tue 10/14, BAC Wed 10/15. (Company IR pages/press.) Market conditions: U.S. bond market closed Mon 10/13 (liquidity thinner); NYSE equities open. (SIFMA; NYSE hours.) Options expiration: standard monthly Fri 10/17. Expect pinning flows. (Cboe 2025 calendar.) Setups (Level-KZ Protocol — 15m→5m→1m; NY kill-zones preferred) TIER-1 (A++) — Rejection Short at 6790–6810 (NY AM) Trigger: 15m full-body fails to hold above 6790–6810 → 5m prints a lower-high and re-closes back inside → 1m first pullback “pop-and-fail”. Entry: 6796–6803 on the 1m failure. Invalidation: Hard SL above the 15m fail-wick (guide 6814). TPs: TP1 6738–6745, TP2 6690–6700, TP3 6625–6635. TIER-1 (A++) — Quick-Reclaim Long at 6550–6560 (Asia/London → carry to NY) Trigger: Liquidity sweep into 6550–6560, immediate 15m re-close back above 6600, 5m holds ≥6620, 1m higher-low entry. Entry: 6602–6610 on the first pullback that holds. Invalidation: Hard SL below the 15m sweep-low (guide 6544). TPs: TP1 6690–6700, TP2 6738–6745, TP3 6768–6775. TIER-2 (A+ Bounce) — 6590–6596 fast reclaim Trigger: Wick through 6590–96 that immediately reclaims ≥6620 on 5m. Entry/SL: Enter 6615–6622; SL below sweep-low −0.5pt. Targets: 6690 then 6738–45. ¾ size. TIER-3 (A Bounce) — 6515–6525 exhaustion flush Trigger: Capitulation into the 4H PWL band with 15m reversal signal. Entry/SL: Scale inside the band; SL below the 15m reversal wick. Targets: 6590–96 then 6690. ½ size; only first touch.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex