Buy 1 ES 4406 on stop If filled, 4318 stop, 4507 tgtBuy 1 ES 4406 on stop If filled, 4318 stop, 4507 tgt as pending orders. Longby Cannon-TradingUpdated 2
11/14 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap In yesterday's trading, ES finally bumped into resistance after an 80 point monster short squeeze on Friday. The level of resistance was no coincidence, as it was noted last week that we were closing just above the most significant resistance in ES at 4418-25. This level is the core downtrend line from the August high. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Exploding higher 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down a lot 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit Major Global Catalysts CPI inflation prints below expectations. Today is CPI day, which is often one of the most volatile, random, and difficult-to-trade days of the year for ES. Key Structures Key structures to note include 4484, 4418-25, 4400-05, 4385, and 4330-36. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4418-24 (major), 4410, 4400-05 (major), 4386 (major), 4375, 4366 (major), 4360, 4348, 4335 (major), 4326, 4315, 4302, 4290-95 (major), 4279, 4268, 4250-55 (major), 4243, 4233, 4225, 4213 (major). Resistance Levels 4434, 4439 (major), 4445, 4460-63 (major), 4473, 4480-85 (major), 4496, 4507 (major), 4514, 4517 (major), 4525, 4534, 4543 (major), 4550, 4557-60 (major), 4566, 4574 (major), 4581, 4591 (major), 4596, 4610-14 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today depends on the megaphone discussed above holding at 4400-05. The bear case generally begins on the failure of 4400-05. On a normal day, there would be a possible breakdown short here, but on CPI day it is very hard to execute without getting trapped. Wrap Up CPI day, expect traps, and failed breakdowns are your best friend. If you over-trade on these days, you are almost certain to lose. Predictability on CPI days is essentially 0, so I can only provide a lean based purely on the structure. My general lean is the megaphone fills out, then plays out. This would look something like defend 4418-24, 4400 lowest, then test 4439, then higher into 4460-63. Megaphone fails at 4400, it gives bears a chance at a proper pullback finally. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.Longby spytradingpro0
Tank after the rally CPI DataI want to see this mf tank after the rally, especially in the PM SessionShortby Big_E_Trades_2
CPI predictionFake initial drop Expansion higher to sweep buy stops. I would like to see a drop after buy stops are swept, with a continuation lower in the PM Session.Longby Big_E_Trades_228
ES range for 14-Nov [ETH Update]Capitalize on the around-the-clock liquidity of E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES), and take advantage of one of the most efficient and cost-effective ways to gain market exposure to the S&P 500 Index, a broad-based, capitalization-weighted index that tracks 500 of the largest companies of the US economy and a key indicator of the stock market’s health. With ES futures, you can take positions on S&P 500 performance electronically. by Golf_Bravo0
ES Short Opportunity 11/13-11/18 expecting a bearish reaction off of this fvg this week. Major red folder news tues-fri so expect a high volatility move.Shortby Missniper112
11/13 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap Last week, we saw a major squeeze to the 4418-24 upside target. Triggers for this squeeze were a failed breakdown of the 4377-85 level, which was then backtested and cleared on the second attempt, leading to a rapid squeeze higher. The largest, fastest moves often come from failed breakdowns, and this system is built around exploiting this edge. The RSI provided "fuel" for the squeeze, suggesting substantial energy already available for another rally. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down very slightly 💵 Dollar: Up very slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit Major Global Catalysts Moody’s changed the outlook on US government debt from stable to negative. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit and APEC Economic Leaders’ Week is underway in San Francisco all week. Key Structures The notable structures and levels from highest to lowest include: 4418-25, 4399, 4381-86, 4330-36, and 4302. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. They are not predictive, but will form the basis of level-to-level trading. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4418-25 (major), 4412, 4399 (major), 4394, 4381-86 (major), 4367,4355, 4347 (major), 4331-36 (major), 4326, 4315, 4302 (major), 4290 (major), 4279, 4268, 4255-58 (major). Resistance Levels 4434, 4439, 4445, 4452, 4460-63 (major), 4472, 4480-85 (major), 4497 (major), 4502, 4514 (major), 4525-28, 4534, 4540-43 (major). Trading Plan Today, the plan is to continue holding the long runner from high 4380s and allow for price discovery to unfold. If we begin a dip today, 4418-25 is first support down. If last Friday’s late-day breakout was a trap, we could sell quite hard starting today. If 4385 fails, we will sell deeply. All shorts are high risk knife catches. Wrap Up In summary, after last Friday's monster rally, it's time to step back and let price discovery reveal what is next. As long as 4418-24 holds, we can continue up the levels to 4439, 4445, 4460-63. If 4418-24 fails, we likely need to dip to 4399 at least. We get a proper leg down only when 4381-86 fails. The aim is not to catch every move, but to catch the portion of the daily moves that correspond to your edge and your pre-planned setups. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.Longby spytradingpro0
Can Bears get saved by Moody's & CPI?A lot of folks predicting an inverse head and shoulders got absolutely rekt on friday. Thursday marked the downswing and retail piled into puts. But the market squeezed them out. Then after hours Moodys hit the market with a downgrade. In the past this has lead to a 2-4% sell-off. The question is how soon can it happen? I decided to manifest the bearish dream, what they are hoping can happen, the question is if it will play out. I think there is a chance. My fear, or I should say my greed, (from a bullish perspective) is that CPI won't be a big deal and the market will dip a bit on Monday and rally on Tuesday with moderate CPI data. But bears? They want panic on Monday, a drop down below the low of Friday and then a relief rally on Tuesday that gets slapped down. I personally am bearish, I want a pullback to 428-425 range in the next 2 weeks. But I wouldn't mind if we got it in 3 days either.Shortby MikeSpy113
ES - Bullish - 2nd Week of NovemberI will have to see monday's price action before deciding on a weekly profile. However, I think it's very possible we trade to 40 day IPDA data range highs on Tues then have a pullback to weekly breaker. If we happen to trade lower early in the week, the targets are the same but in reverse order. Longby imjesstwoone0
SP500 Santa RallyIf you check our previous post on the SP500 here you'll see we called the top of the B wave in back in July and since then we've moved down in a leading diagonal to complete wave 1 of C, now we're in the middle of a sharp and fast wave 2 and we believe Friday just gone marked the top of the A wave of this wave 2, we're expecting a pretty quick decline for the B wave followed by a sharp rise to complete wave C of 2 in time for the 'santa rally' but we expect things to start turning sour pretty quickly as the new year approaches and this wave 3 of the larger wave C down will get nasty, very fast. So be sensible if you are looking to go long for the santa rally, don't get caught out with your pants down trying to squeeze every ounce of profit out of this counter trend rally, because when this turns, it's going to turn very quickly and will take no prisoners.Shortby RAA_Trading1
SP500 still short biasI keep my original short idea at least until the top of wave (2orB) is violated Shortby CZagoMBA0
SP500 Pullback Coming Before 5000!Closing on November 10: The SP500 index recorded a brilliant rise, gaining 1.56%. The opening occurred at 4,364.1 points, below the highs of the previous session. Throughout the day, the quotes strengthened, closing at 4,415.2 points, near the session highs. Status and Trend Analysis: Short-term trend: Signs of strengthening with immediate resistance at 4,439. Key levels: Resistance 2: 4,507 Resistance 1: 4,439 Support 1: 4,375 Support 2: 4,326 Bullish strength: Supported by the upward crossover of the 5-day moving average over the 35-day moving average. Technical implications: Indicate a possible continuation of the bullish phase towards the level of 4,507. Additional Information: The analysis suggests that the index shows bullish strength, supported by technical indicators. The next resistance could be tested at 4,439, with prospects for further increase towards 4,507. However, it is essential to monitor support levels to understand the stability of the current trend. Personally, I expect an upward movement to the level of 4450, where the price may feel the physiological pressure of the 0.79% Fibonacci level and experience a pullback with a subsequent descent into the order block area before resuming or continuing to decline towards the retracement of the bearish trendline. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.Shortby Forex48_TradingAcademy331
ES is this the last ride ES show me what you got will this be the last push before you give it all up with price racing to a 3M OB will it fail to make new highs or will it pull off the win in the last hours by ThanksNeo1
Wychoff pattern long term viewMarket repet itself, to me it looks a big wychoff pattern with a close possibility for an end of the year close to the all time high followed in yhe next year with a huge dropby pas291
E-mini S&P - Weekly Timeframe Analysis Price had a relatively convincing reversal back to the upside. In my opinion the highest yielding position would be a long from the weekly Bisi annotated on the chart. A short could be identified from the weekly Sibi, but I would be wary that the Sibi could be used as a point of support of there are Discount PD Arrays on lower timeframes within. A possible target would be the relative equal highs residing near the top of the highest weekly swing.by Road_2_Funded2
The path has me short on ES, SPY, NQ, etc.....Ok, this may be a bit much, but I'm bored and there are too many kids upstairs...... Well, I love me some Fibs, so take a look at some of these. The two Cypher patterns, the 2nd smaller one is set to the exact same parameters (measurements) as the first one. The yellow line is the path that the market had been on, except COVID hit and the market got back on path in May of 2020 after the CARES Act passed in March of 2020.by tesson221
Es AnalysisES dropped today as I anticipated: Now a low low has formed and I am looking to take shorts on the bear channel that has formed with trendline break as confirmation. Buyside liquidity is the target. by StockplayssUpdated 1
ES Daily FVG CE 50% LevelES is trying to get through the 50% CE Level of its Daily FVG. With CPI coming next week on top of the last 2 weeks of Bullish Price action and consecutive highs, this is looking like a good turnaround level for the Bears IMO.Shortby Vinchenz0
ES1! and SPY: Week of Nov 5/6Happy daylight savings time! Threw me off last night with the time change, watching a movie that was apparently 1 hour and 15 minutes turned out to be a 2 hour and 15 minute movie haha. Anyway, on to the analysis! So this week should be bearish, yeah? That's what I thought, but probably not. We do have a bit of a bearish 99% target slightly below the bear threshold on the week. Things seem to support a move to the first weekly low target (my immediate target in the chart above). And things seem to support a sell into Monday, which would be the first in a while (as most Mondays have been traditionally bullish, but also those bullish Monday's had backing probs, this Monday does not). Either way, some downside is in the cards for this week. Where it gets kind of vague and ambiguous is when we consider how low do we go and do we stay low? Probs aren't much help this week because they're too conflicting, especially the ones based on momentum which are just screaming "Long". But they are too easily skewed by short squeezes, which I think was a huge part of this past week. But its best not to live by the short squeeze thesis. Lots of times, short squeezes can lead to sustained bullishness. I think we understand that at this point in a post AMC and GME world, but just in case you needed reminding :p. Actual analysis: SPY and ES1! gained over 5% this past week. So I went back and took a look at what that generally means for the next week, and I subjectively saw that we generally retrace PL1 on the weekly before sometimes ending in chop/flat, and other times continuing the rally up. To confirm my findings objectively, I quickly whipped up a back-test indicator to test for the % change and the number of times it lead to Hi and Lo targets being hit. Here are the results for ES1!: We can see that there is only 1 identical instance, which led to PL1 being hit but then we rallied. But if we expand the search area by allowing a % change within +/- 0.10%, here are the revised results: Of all the instances (3), PH2 was ALWAYS hit. Kind of a problem for my bearish thesis. But let's check SPY: SPY gained 5.85%, with 4 identical weeks identified over the past 1,500 weeks of SPY's trading history. And here are the results: Out of 4 identical weeks, PL1 was hit 3 times, PL2 was hit twice, PH1 was hit 4 and PH2 was hit once. So what does it mean? It means we will likely pullback. We should be looking for this to find support at the immediate bear target in the chart, and we should be looking for a continuation to the low range if we break below PL1. The regression probability, which is not skewed by momentum (because they control momentum by looking at current standard deviation and the distribution within a bell curve), are to the bullish side of things. This is important, because they tend to be a bit more unbiased and neutral than momentum probability is, which is easily influenced by MM shenanigans. This % change thing I only did to test my subjective findings, I have no clue whether this is valid as a probability based model or not. So what's the verdict? Pull back seems to be likely, if not by the previous behaviour exhibited with this kind of % change in a week, then by the simple fact that our bullish GT on ES1! rests below the bearish threshold. Its important not to adopt a bias too much in one direction. If we are to reclaim the time series range of our previous, October low uptrend, we will be heading back up to 448, with no real math resistance until 450/451. If this was all a sham and the market is playing games, we may see a precipitous decline this week. However, I can't find support for this thesis in the objective data. That doesn't mean it won't happen or can't happen, just that it hasn't happened frequently before, based on similar setups. Verdict is be careful! Safe trades everyone, leave your questions/comments below :-). Forgot to add, here are the weekly targets for SPY: by SteverstevesUpdated 343436
Long or Short?ES approaching resistance from October 12 before it dropped. A break above 4430.50 with volume for long and possible a change of structure. Below, a continuation to the downs side. by oneNtonio0
ES1 E-MINI S&P500an update on my last idea from yesterday. we are returning into premium after a market structure shift, looking to see if price can run into that FVG that's labeled on the 15m chart. still waiting for equities open @ 9:30am (EST) for more volatility. IF ALL THESE CONDITIONS ARE MET, then we should see a nice break down for sell-side liquidity below yesterdays low.by Mookie4293Updated 1
A short term plan for ES probably just a day trade idea.The chart tells the entire plan. I do look for around 20 minutes plus of trading time into a level for me to call it broke. I give the idea about a 55% chance based on early action.Longby alleytraderUpdated 0