ES1! trade ideas
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.01 - 12.06.24Last Week :
Last week market opened up inside the Value of this 930s - 650s HTF Range, beginning of the week we were able to stay around the Value and balance inside this 620 - 970s Intraday Range with pushes out of Value that got sold back in. Wednesday again opened over Value and sold back in with RTH Volume but closed right under VAH to finish regular trading week. Shortened holiday sessions didnt have much supply so we were able to hold over VAH which build up stops that got squeezed in upper Edge once end of week covering came in on Friday.
This Week :
This is technically the first tag of this new HTF Range Edge since our first push towards it failed just shy of it. More often than not first tests of big areas like an Edge provide a reaction in the oppositive direction, of course we could say the push that gave us selling from this area the first time was it and that this time we may hold long or continue but because this move was during shortened holiday sessions we need to watch out with looking for continuation from here unless market can hold over 640s - 50s, stay around/inside the Edge AND get through 670s with Edge top and start holding over it. Until this happens I would be looking for us to either try and balance around this Current Intraday Range of 620s - 670 which we pushed into Friday or if the buying just pushes us up during lighter volume days and wont stick come next week then we can see a move back towards VAH and if we can't hold over it then its possible to see continuation back inside the Value/Mean and if we have enough supply a push for lower VAL.
We have HTF stops built up there under 970s if that area gets taken it could bring in more selling to give us an Edge to Edge move from bottom to the top, if we can't take the stops at VAL then we could continue to balance inside this Value building Supply.
This is new month and last month of the year, will we start our first week with a sell towards the buyers who are under 940s or do we have enough buying to give us a hold over Value and try to test new one ?
On Daily TF we are still inside a 5720s - 6070s Range and currently we are inside Daily Edge, if we can't get through it then possible return towards Daily VAH which is in 980 - 60s Area.
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Max bullish. New ath is done, now I have two upper targets left for this year. We have 2 decent upper bull trend lines where only the #1 target of 6300 fits. The other would be 6450 but too far and too low probability for now. Bears would need anything below 5850 to kill the rally.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again.
comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs .
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6500)
bull case: Last hurrah. 6150 is my next target and if we don’t stop, 6500. Is this a bubble? Yes. Can you short this? No. Trends can go much further than anyone can imagine and your account can not sustain the drawdown of early shorts. Breakout is clear, as is the chart.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Non-starter is this here. Daily close below 5850, then I start looking at this with a bigger bullish eye.
Invalidation is above 6070.
outlook last week:
short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5987 and now we are at 6051. Perfect outlook.
short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing.
Do bulls really want to be long the S&P 500 ahead of a breakout?S&P 500 future are tantalisingly close to a record high. So close in fact, it would be rude not to print one. Yet I am skeptical it will simply hold on to (and extend) any such gains without at least a shakeout first, and bulls may be better to wait for a dip. Comparing the S&P 500 to Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures, I explain why.
MS.
ES1 Week 48Seems like this week CME_MINI:ES1! closed above the high of the previous Tertiary Quarter while CME_MINI:NQ1! didn't which indicate as bear SMT.
What supports this idea is the fact that CME_MINI:NQ1! is between two daily gaps of previous weeks in the same month Q1.
This make me believe that we are looking to retrace to previous gaps and I'm bearish this week.
SP500 E-Mini Futures will pump to 6,442.00 and then dump hardSP500 E-Mini Futures is showing in the lower timeframes a possible continuation at least more 6,30% reaching the 6,442.00 mark and at the same time with some bearish divergences in the higher time frames that if the price gets there could iniate a pullback between 30% and 40% to bring the price back slight below 4,000.00 at the end of next year possibly.
Volume analysis: S&P E-mini FuturesRotation setup: pullback to the volume around 5,750 where buyers accumulated their positions, which should be defended. The first (upper) deviation of the yearly VWAP (grey line) comes in as a solid confluence in the area, having in mind also the yearly trend. Should be a decent long opportunity.
OVN + RTH ES Price Action REview 11-29-24Going over the Overnight & RTH shortened HOliday session ES looking for clues as to how we could have traded better and what the market was telling us. keep working hard do all your work today for Monday. get ahead of the curve. Champions do what 2nd & 3rd place Will NOT do.
ES1! Futures Mini Hourly Trade (ICT Rejection Block?)Short and simple, just here to track this trade idea officially using ICT concepts.
Although my Intermediate analysis is Bearish for ES1! I do believe there is some reason to be Bullish in the short term . Missed most of the move but this trade is would be more of a scalp /short swing if youre into that. This would be off the most recent 1H Bullish OB and targeting the unmitigated highs from Nov 11 7am ( 6,053 level ) which coincedentally is an unmitigated Rejection Block (**unverified**), seems like the only area with Buy Side liquidity left before ranging back down into discount or establishing a new high before retracing.
It seems like price strength doesn't much area to move because I believe this is the most recent move away from EQ in this current weekly range.
Interested to see how this develops.
Entry: 6,030
Stop: 6,020
PT 1: 6,035 (0.6 RR)
PT 2: 6,044 (1.38 RR)
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures - Same as for dax. Retest of yesterday’s open price and bears could only correct sideways and biggest dip was 5 points. Big bull trend line was support and we are on our way up. I expect 6040 and probably higher. If not tomorrow then next month. We have a perfect channel upwards which leads 6100+. I don’t think bears can even get below 6015 again. If they do, 6000 has to hold or we could have seen the highs.
comment: Not much difference to my dax outlook. Relentless buying today, ath in sight and a decent channel upwards. Bears need something below 6000 to make bulls cover. Big bullish bias for me. Possible that we stay around 6000-6050 for November, to then do the Santa rally somewhere in December. Closing 2024 above 6000 would be amazing for bulls.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 6000 - 6050 (above 6050 comes 6100 in play)
bull case : Higher lows and higher highs. Clear invalidation price given and big resistance above. I doubt bears can get this below 6010/6015 tomorrow. Only longs for me. If we stall around 6040, you should have a tight stop and from a r:r perspective, new longs above 6040 are bad.
Invalidation is below 6010.
bear case: Bears need something below 6000. That’s it. How likely is that? Look at the daily chart. Is there any bearishness in there?
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term : Bullish.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Could have bought pretty much anywhere.
ES Price Action REview entire day 11-27 Overnight + RTHGoing over the price action for the ES for wednesday 11-27-24 looking back at clues the market left us and how we positioned ourselves for the day. Pain + Reflection = Growth. yesterday was an absolutely magnificent day to really study and learn from. do all your work. enjoy time with Family/Friends and give thanks for the gift of life. We get to be Alive.
ES Trendline SupportDecent little sell off this morning, ES coming into trendline support, important for bulls to hold it here. If we bounce I'll look for a move back up to the trendline above for a potential breakout.
If it breaks below and can't hold 6k, I would definitely avoid longs until around 5950 at least.
ES Morning update Nov27thThe steady climb persists in ES. As posted yesterday breakout above 6002 would push us higher with 6027, 6036, and 6046 as targets. We hit 6046 exactly.
As of now: 6026=support (already tested once). Holds keep 6038, 6044 in play. Breakout potential to 6073 above. If 6026 fails, watch for dips to 6017, then 6002.
S&P potential long when new york market opensas the bullish daily bias show us, we can see some liq to the downside that could be taken . after that we could react at the 70-80 % fib level , which is as well at the 1h Order Block . that would give us nice confirmation and we could take a trade if we get a good setup to that, the main thing is that we are bullish and that we want to get higher. but unfortunately everything can happen and we are not forcing trades. Risk 1-3 %
