S&P moves this year and potential correction target i Have mapped out the moves we have had this year and show key areas and a potential correction pullback area.
ES1! trade ideas
MES1! WEEK 37 SEPT 7TH Looking for MON. TUE, WED HIGH of the week trading above $6500. LOOK TO TAKE SELLS FROM THE PREMIUM END OF THE CURRENT DEALING RANGE.
THERE ARE RELATIVE EQUAL LOWS AT $6430 AND $6365.
IF -- PRICE CAN NOT GET BLOW THE DISCOUNT RANGE THEN YOU ARE OFF SIDE AND SHOULD LOOK TO BUY FOR HIGHER PRICES.
CALANDER EVENT
TUES
-10AM - PMI (HIGH)
- 2PM - TRUMP SPEAKS
WED
-10AM - JOLT's JOB OPENING (HIGH)
THUR
-8:30AM - NF- EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (HIGH)
-10AM - PMI (HIGH)
FRIDAY
-8:30AM - NFP / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (HIGH)
- UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE (HIGH)
-4PM - TRUMP SPEAKES
Note - find 6pm=6am dealing range.
- note any smaller ranges within the DR that we can trade form on the 15m.5m.or 1m
FED Rate Cuts Aren’t the Blessing You Think — History Proves ItIn this video I ll take you thru historical macro events and we will see how it all rhymes with current markets conditions.
Here is link to my initial article with the data
Remember: Macro takes time to play and price can be going for months before the crash happens watch charts Im mentioning and whole picture will starts to show to you.
Stay safe and protect your wealth and family. Next 5 years of the 4th Turning can be violent not only on the markets.
David Perk
Stock Index: The AI Bubble That Will Burst!ES
S&P 500 futures finishes up 0.23% as economic slowdown worries cloud rate-cut optimism. From a technical perspective, this week marks the third consecutive where ES has been trading inside of 11 Aug 25 bullish spinning top candle indicating weakness of bulls after reaching uncharted territory of $6,541.75 all-time highs.
Such signs point to a short-term retracement down into discount arrays but I am not here trying to guess the top. If it does occur, $6,355.00 is an area of interest but on an overall basis, I want to be neutral until Sunday’s opening price / opening gap.
NQ
Nasdaq follows with a 0.93% gain but with the same issue of price trading within a range, in this case, since the 4th Aug 25 weekly bullish marabozu was printed, I would not want to put my money on a continued run as of yet. Preeing short-term retracements with a discount array @ $22,781.75 is being watched closely and for the time being, I want to be neutral
YM
Dow Jones closes -0.37% lower this week with the intermediate highs of $45,887 still in tact. Will the monthly buyside liquidity pool be used to suck in unexpected bull traders before repricing to HTF discount arrays?
If I am to see a decline in the 3 stock index pairs, YM will be the pair to lookout for as the front-running market.
Automating TradingView Alerts to Tradovate (Step 1: Webhook + JSWelcome to the first video on my channel, Quant by Boji.
In this series, I’m walking you through how to build a complete end-to-end automation pipeline that takes alerts from TradingView and turns them into real trades on Tradovate, with confirmations sent to Telegram.
In this first episode, I cover the foundation:
Creating an indicator in TradingView using Pine Script
Adding the alertcondition() function so alerts know when to fire
Setting up an alert in TradingView with the Webhook URL
Writing a JSON message in the alert so your server has all the data it needs
By the end of this video, you’ll understand how TradingView can send structured alerts directly to your server, which is the first step in connecting it all to Tradovate.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only. I’m not providing financial advice. Futures trading carries substantial risk, so always start in paper trading and do your own due diligence.
🔔 Subscribe and follow along — in the next episode, I’ll show you how to capture these alerts on AWS and move closer to live automation.
Day 24 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$264 Overnight WinWelcome to Day 24 of Trading Only S&P Futures!
Today was all about patience and levels. I noticed the market had already made a huge move yesterday, so I bet it couldn’t push much further overnight. I shorted at 6525 and woke up to a $250+ profit by market open.
That was enough for me — the plan worked perfectly, so I stayed mostly on the sidelines for the rest of the day. Both our overnight level and yesterday’s level played out exactly as expected, which made this a clean session.
Closed the day at +264.83.
📰 News Highlights
U.S. ADDS FEWER-THAN-EXPECTED 22,000 JOBS IN AUGUST, BOOSTING ODDS OF 50BPS CUT
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6470 = Remain Bullish
Below 6450 = Flip Bearish
Monday is expected to be an inside dayThe daily structure in the S&P 500 chart implies an inside day for Monday which means Monday would trade within the range of Friday.
price returns to proven buyers providing cheap entry 1->3 : proven buyers at number 2
3->4 : return to proven buyers
next ?
* hidden bull rsi and mfi +oversold
* vpoc
*vwap 1st standard deviation
return to support during uptrend presents a cheap entry 1->3 : push up marking 2
as proven buyers
3->4 : return to proven buyers
next?
* hidden bull divergence
* behind vpoc 1->3 swing(s)
*uptrend continuation
*bullish bar entry at support
*zone trading 75% probability follow through to profit, though the invalid is below our stop as the zones are too big to align stop with zone stop also
ES - September 5th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 5th - 7:55am
Last night session I stated - "My lean is we grind sideways and up into the 6523 level overnight and then we will need to wait for the employment report and NYSE to try and get some level losses and reclaims to finish the week at our targets of 6547, 6563+."
Our overnight session has been rangebound between 6512 - 6531. Employment report and NYSE open will determine which direction we move. I will be waiting for price to settle down after initial reactions and look for the best levels that I will be looking for a flush and reclaim would be the 6491 level as it was the high of this week during the Sunday evening session. We could dip down to 6473/79 levels and then rally.
I will update around after employment report and around 10am.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly High/Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (New chart out in am)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session High/Low
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
Non Farm Payrolls 0830 EST Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) main event is tomorrow. Big show down between Bulls vs Bears. ADP was a market miss today, will NFP be a market miss?
If jobs report is no bueno will markets blast a roo up because they like the potential for Fed Rate cuts confirmed or will risk markets do a dumpster fire? Only time will tell. 0730 CST is the time to sit by the ringside to find out who wins.
#nonfarmpayrolls
#volitilemarkets
Its Non-Farm: How much will ES Move?Hi all - Happy Non-Farm Friday!
I haven't done this in a while and thought it might be helpful to share my process for estimating the size of the move that we may get on ES after the Non-Farm Payrolls data is released.
I'm not trying to make a prediction on direction here - but more understand where the boundaries could be so I can determine how to trade this (what trading tool I can pull out of my box) once the announcement comes out.
Hope it helps and please let me know if you find it useful and I'll create more posts .
Cheers,
Jeff
ES — Intraday Analyses & A++ Setups (Fri Sep 5, 2025) • Demand (reclaim): 6501–6505 — now support; Trigger-Lock ON
• Continuation line: ~6516 (1.272 area)
• Upside magnets: 6520–6523, 6531–6533, 6548–6552
• Deeper trigger band: 6468–6475 (only relevant on failure back below 6501)
A++ Long Setup
Retest-Hold LONG
• Entry: 6503–6505 on a 5m close + hold of 6501–6505
• SL: 6496–6498 (≤ 6–8 pts)
• TP1: 6520–6523
• TP2: 6531–6533
• TP3: 6548–6552
Invalidation: Any 15m close < 6501 after acceptance.
Failure / Flip path
• If 6501–6505 fails on a 15m close, expect a deeper probe toward 6475.
• Shorts are not active unless we get the full sequence: rejection of 6468–6475 → 15m bearish < 6466 → 5m failed retest 6447–6451 (then use 6432/6422/6413 TP ladder).
Positive attitudeThe daily price action on Thursday in the S&P 500 indicates a positive attitude of the market going into Friday's labor numbers. It will be interesting to see if buyers follow through with a positive close going into the weekend.
Day 23 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$200 & New Daily RuleWelcome to Day 23 of Trading Only S&P Futures!
I locked in +200.45 on my competition account by shorting the MOB overnight and walking away once my target was hit. Later in the day, I came back to watch and ended up losing on other accounts — which sparked an important realization.
From now on, I’m considering a rule: cap daily gains at 10% of account balance.
For example, with a $2,000 account, my daily target should be $200 max. Anything more means overtrading, staying in the market too long, and risking unnecessary drawdowns.
This might be the structure I need to keep consistent results.
📰 News Highlights
U.S. JOB CUTS TOTAL 85,979 IN AUGUST, HIGHEST FOR THAT MONTH SINCE 2020 — CHALLENGER
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6470 = Remain Bullish
Below 6450 = Flip Bearish
ES - September 5th - Daily Trade Plan - Evening SessionSeptember 4th - 7:15pm
In today's daily trade plan, I said - "Ideally, we lose 6454, flush and reclaim for a move higher. I expect another choppy day, and we need to clear 6491 to keep this rally moving higher."
At 10:16am price dropped down to 6456.25 and took off higher. You can look at a 4hr chart and see the institutional accumulation that has been happening. You can look at my weekly trading plan in which I stated -
"I do believe we can still rally up to 6547, 6563+ this week, but IF, we lose the 6369 level, that would be a big blow to bulls, and it would need to be sharp reclaim back inside the white trendline to keep momentum."
What did institutions do so far this week? Flush the white trendline, run stops, accumulate and we are heading higher. 6523 is the next big resistance with 6547, 6563 still in play. Price needs to hold 6473 with 6455 being the lowest for us to keep moving higher. Employment report out tomorrow am and usually the initial move will be a fake out. I don't trade prior to the employment report and usually wait until after the NYSE open to evaluate and find a spot to get some points. Since we have closed at highs on the day and we are just going sideways, the best levels that I will be looking for a flush and reclaim would be the 6491 level as it was the high of this week during the Sunday evening session. We could dip down to 6473/79 levels and then rally.
My lean is we grind sideways and up into the 6523 level overnight and then we will need to wait for the employment report and NYSE to try and get some level losses and reclaims to finish the week at our targets of 6547, 6563+.
I will post an updated chart tomorrow before 7am EST.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly High/Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (New chart out in am)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session High/Low
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
Bullish energy Just an idea …..I mostly scalp. 20-30% targets. Because the market is respecting higher lows, sustaining above moving averages, and showing momentum confirmation, my bias is bullish. I expect that as long as price holds above the most recent support zone, buyers will continue to press toward the next resistance level.
(ES) – Key Resistance at 6475The ES is approaching a significant resistance zone around the 6475 level, which has the potential to act as a short-term cap on price action. Given the current structure and momentum, ES may struggle to break and hold above this area.
This presents a possible short opportunity near 6475, with a tight stop just above the resistance. If this level holds as resistance, we could see a rejection leading to lower levels in the coming sessions.
Monitor price action closely around this zone for confirmation and manage risk accordingly.
Possible flush or continuation?Appears to be forming a falling wedge. Waiting to see how it plays out. Could go either way
ES - September 4th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 4th - 6:45am EST
In yesterday's post I said "Ideally, we need to hold the 6426 level or flush and reclaim quickly. IF, price can't rally above 6476, my lean is we are in the midst of a change in character of price, and I will be looking lower for levels to flush and reclaim."
We chopped around all day and ended up breaking below the white trend line to 6426, got bought up and then rallied at end of day. Institutions bought it up and we ended up close to the highs of the day.
Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly High/Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low
3. Blue shows the previous day's session High/Low
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
What is the game plan for today?
Overnight the low was 6454 with us coming into session highs at 6473.75. Ideally, we can flush 6454 and reclaim for a level to level move higher. IF, price sells off below 6454, we will probably need to head back down to the white trendline which is the 6438 level. 6438-6454 will be a chop fest.
Immediate Resistances - 6473, 6476, 6485, 6491 (Weekly High)
Immediate Supports - 6458, 6454, 6438, 6426, 6412
Ideally, we lose 6454, flush and reclaim for a move higher. I expect another choppy day, and we need to clear 6491 to keep this rally moving higher. We also have employment report out tomorrow am. My lean is we keep chopping up today as we head into the report at 8:30am tomorrow.
OTEUM EXPERT CALL: SP500 – Jackson Hole Fade OTEUM EXPERT CALL: SP500 – Jackson Hole Fade 🏔️🐻
We’re looking for a SHORT(s) in spot and options for a macro swing down into Jackson Hole and the immediate aftermath 📉. Plan is to sell rallies into value (red box), ride the drift lower, and bank along staged targets. After that, we’ll be hunting the first-cut squeeze back up 🏦✂️🚀.
Risk: a surprise dovish leak / policy jawbone that front-runs the cut and squeezes shorts. Size smart, trail tight, don’t overstay.
#SP500 #ES #Macro #JacksonHole #ShortSetup #OTEUM
return to proven buyers might be the continuation of trend1->3 : number 3 closes above number 1 ,
this makes number 2 a solid major low in
the local scope and the origin of dominant
volume
3->4 : return to number 2
next ?
* hidden bull rsi and mfi
* testing upside trendline obv and small breaks
* uptrend
*vwap, 1st stand deviation + pulback to vwap
*zone trading 66% chance to reach target above big
red bar = upside bias if they beat that
*poc defending buyers
